GFS Forecast Precipitation Type/Rate valid 06Z Thursday October 26, 2017

Mild Fall Temperatures On The Way Out

The first half of the week will bring seasonal conditions Winnipeg, but the writing is on the wall: a big pattern shift will usher in significantly cooler conditions for the second half of the week and into the next.

The cooler weather begins to arrive today in Winnipeg, drawn southwards across the province behind a low pressure system that passed through overnight. A few remaining showers and cloud will clear out this morning, leaving Winnipeg with mixed skies for the afternoon. Winds will be fairly breezy out of the northwest as a ridge of high pressure builds into the province; light morning winds will build to 40 gusting 60 km/h for the afternoon. Temperatures today will barely budge from this morning, remaining steady near 6 or 7°C through the day. Expect partly cloudy skies overnight with winds diminishing to around 20-30 km/h and a low dipping down to the freezing mark.

Tuesday will be a pleasant and crisp fall day with plenty of sunshine and a high near 9°C in Winnipeg. Winds will be much calmer out with a morning breeze out of the northwest at around 20 km/h diminishing to light midday. Some cloud will spread into Winnipeg later in the afternoon, announcing the approach of the low that will usher in a dramatic change in the general weather pattern.1 Temperatures will drop to a low near 4°C overnight as northwesterly winds move back in and usher cooler air into the region once again.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 00Z Wednesday October 25, 2017
A low pressure system moving across northern Manitoba will draw warm air eastwards into the southern half of the province for Wednesday.

Wednesday will be the last day of mild conditions before things take a dive on Thursday. Temperatures will climb to a high near 10°C as skies become cloudy for the afternoon. Northwesterly winds around 15-25 km/h in the morning will taper off to light for the afternoon. As the low pressure system begins pushing into Manitoba in the late afternoon, the chance for showers will increase as an area of rain slumps southeastwards from central Saskatchewan. Temperatures will dip to a low near 2-3°C early Thursday morning as rain moves in overnight.

Long Range Outlook

Thursday looks rather unpleasant with rain likely changing over to snow in the morning as significantly colder air floods southwards behind a strong low moving across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will reach a high in the low single digits with a brisk northerly wind – likely reaching 40-50 km/h – as the snow tapers off in the afternoon.

GFS 850mb Temperature Forecast valid 00Z Thursday October 26 to 00Z Friday October 27, 2017
This animation of 850mb temperatures – approximately 1.5km above the ground – very clearly depicts the colder air moving into the region through the day

The remainder of the week looks quite cool with highs in the low single digits and overnight lows dipping below the freezing mark each night well into next week. The one saving grace will be the cloud cover, ranging from mixed skies to overcast, that will help moderate the temperatures from getting too cold.

This pattern of cooler conditions will continue through much of next week as a persistent west-coast ridge, eastern Canada trough pattern sustains a generally northwesterly flow over the eastern Prairies.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 7°C while the seasonal overnight low is -3°C.

  1. Some cloud will likely be around in the Red River Valley through much of the day as it comes off of Lake Manitoba and Winnipeg in the northwest wind. Whether Winnipeg sees any of it will depend on the exact wind direction, but it will likely remain outside the city.

Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

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