Warm And Occasionally Unsettled Weather Continues

Warm and mostly dry weather will continue in Winnipeg through the weekend.

Another in a series of weak disturbances will move through southern Manitoba today. It will bring mixed skies to the region with another chance of scattered showers this afternoon. Temperatures will be mild with a high near 23 °C and winds will be generally light. With the dry conditions, any showers will be capable of producing locally gusty winds up into the 50–70 km/h range. The cloud cover will break up tonight with temperatures heading to a low near 9 °C.

On Saturday, the region will see light winds with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will head to a high near 23 °C again. By the evening, an organized low crossing the northern Prairies will push a warm front eastwards through the region. As it passes, it will bring a chance of showers to the region. The rest of the night should see partly cloudy skies and a low near 12 °C. Southerly winds will strengthen to around 20 km/h overnight.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday May 16, 2021
Daytime highs of 25–30 °C will develop over southern Manitoba on Sunday.

Sunday will bring the heat to southern Manitoba. Well into the warm sector of the northern Manitoba low, breezy southwest winds of 30–40 km/h will send highs into the upper 20s. A trough will slump southwards into the region through the afternoon. It will bring a chance of showers with it, and behind it winds should diminish a bit and turn westerly. The region will see a few clouds Sunday night with diminishing winds and a low near 12 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Another organized low will start moving out of central Alberta on Monday, bringing a renewed push of warmer air into southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be very warm through the first half of the week.

By mid-week, the persistent southerly flow will bring a pool of Gulf of Mexico humidity into the northern Plains of the United States, potentially into southern Manitoba as well. As this moisture approaches, forecasts show a deep upper trough moving into western North America. These two features will combine to bring more humid and unsettled conditions to southern Manitoba in the second half of the week.

GDPS 2m Dew Point Forecast valid 18Z Thursday May 20, 2021
Forecasts show a substantial increase of humidity in the latter half of next week with dew points climbing into the upper teens.

The potential exists for significant rainfall, which would be welcome relief for the drought conditions. This unsettled period could also bring the first well-organized thunderstorm risk to the region, but if the forcing is too strong, it will favour broad areas of showers instead.

So after another warm and mostly dry 5 days, the region should see a shift into a more humid and unsettled pattern.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.


Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as @WeatherInThePeg on Twitter.