Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Rain Expected Today In The Red River Valley

Brad Leave a comment

A complex low pressure system moving across Manitoba today likely bring record-breaking rainfall to Winnipeg as showers develop along a cold front sweeping eastwards. Behind this feature, things will cool slightly, returning the region to near-seasonal temperatures with a few chances for some light snow.

Today’s main weather story will be a low pressure system lifting northeastwards through the Interlake that will push a cold front eastwards across the Red River Valley & Whiteshell. Ahead of this front, temperatures will climb to a high near 4°C with light southerly winds. As the front pushes through later this morning, an area of showers will develop and spread eastwards. The rain has the potential to be relatively heavy (for February in southern Manitoba), and will produce a swath of accumulations generally in the range of 4-8mm, with lower amounts to the west of the main development and localized potential for 8-15mm although those higher amounts would likely be restrained to near the Ontario border.

The NAM’s simulated RADAR imagery shows the main area of rain passing just to the southeast of Winnipeg.

There’s a little uncertainty as to how far west and north the precipitation will push, however it seems likely that Winnipeg will see some rain with 2-5 mm very likely. There’s a smaller chance that we’ll see amounts higher than that, but that will become more clear this morning as the rain develops. Winnipeg’s daily rainfall record for February 20th is 0.3 mm, set in 1965. This makes breaking the record almost a near-certainty today.

Winds shift out of the west behind the front to west-southwesterly at around 20-30 km/h. Temperatures will fall to a low near -1°C overnight under mostly cloudy skies.

Tuesday will bring a mix of sun and cloud to the region with mild weather still in place as temperatures climb to a high near 3°C. Expect increasing cloudiness on Tuesday night with temperatures dropping to a low near -2°C.

Wednesday will bring another low pressure system to the region, this time skirting across southern Manitoba near the US border. This system will spread an area of snow along and just north of the low track. Total amounts, at this point, look like 5-10 cm over the southwestern portion of the province, tapering off to 4-8 cm over the Red River Valley and 2-5 cm over the southeastern corner of the province. Winnipeg’s high temperature will climb to around -1°C, but temperatures may climb to 0 to +1°C over the southern Red River Valley if the low tracks far enough north. Expect a low near -8°C on Wednesday night with gradually clearing skies.

Long Range

The long-range forecast looks cooler, but still relatively pleasant. Winnipeg will likely see variable cloudiness through the second half of the week as temperatures fall back to seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures. Nothing significant is expected for snow between Thursday and the end of the weekend.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -7°C while the seasonal overnight low is -17°C.

A Danish Astronaut Captures Rare Blue Flashes

Brad Leave a comment

Eric Berger, writing for Ars Technica:

Scientists don’t know much about the mysterious, powerful electric discharges that sometimes occur in the upper levels of the atmosphere in conjunction with thunderstorms. The first photograph of the phenomenon—which can occur as high as about 90km above the surface of the Earth and are known variously as sprites, pixies, elves, or jets—was only taken from Earth in 1989.


Fortunately for scientists interested in these storms, the International Space Station offers an excellent vantage point at an altitude of about 400km. So Danish researchers devised a “Thor experiment”—named after the hammer-wielding Norse god—to study the phenomenon. As part of the experiment, an astronaut on board the station would image thunderstorms under certain conditions, and these observations would be correlated with data collected by satellites and ground-based radar and lightning detection systems.

It has been interesting seeing more and more proper research going into these upward-directed electric discharges from thunderstorms. I recall just in the early 2000’s stories about pilots who had seen these phenomenon but didn’t share their experiences because they felt people may not believe them.

Now we know not only that these blue flashes exist, among other upper-atmosphere related phenomenon, but also that thunderstorms may have a role in troposphere-stratosphere gas exchange.

Interesting stuff. Follow through the link for more photos; the published paper with findings is available here.1

  1. Chanrion, O., T. Neubert, A. Mogensen, Y. Yair, M. Stendel, R. Singh, and D. Siingh (2017), Profuse activity of blue electrical discharges at the tops of thunderstorms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 496–503, doi:10.1002/2016GL071311. ↩

Unseasonal Warmth Will Challenge Numerous Records

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will see the peak warmth of the current weather system move in today with temperatures climbing well above the freezing mark. The unseasonable warmth will challenge several record types: record highs, record high minimums, record high dew points, and record high minimum dew points.

Everything ending in °C will be the highlight over the coming days as even more warm air floods into the region. Today’s high will reach around 4°C, while tomorrow’s and Sunday’s highs will be near 3°C. Overnight lows will remain very mild as well, with lows near 0°C tonight, -5°C tomorrow night and +1°C on Sunday night.

Winnipeg, MB Temperature & Dewpoint Records for February 17-19
Date Record Type Current Record
February 17 High Temperature 5.4°C (1981)
High Minimum Temperature 0.8 (1998)
High Dewpoint 2.0°C (1981)
High Minimum Dewpoint -0.6°C (1998)
February 18 High Temperature 3.9°C (1954)
High Minimum Temperature -0.2°C (1998)
High Dewpoint 0.6°C (1954)
High Minimum Dewpoint -1.3°C (1998)
February 19 High Temperature 5.6°C (1930)
High Minimum Temperature 0.2°C (2016)
High Dewpoint 0.6°C (1954)
High Minimum Dewpoint -0.5°C (1981)

These temperatures will challenge many of the records listed above. For daytime highs, it’s important to note that there will likely be significant variability around the city. The official records are for the official Environment & Climate Change Canada observing site located at the Winnipeg airport, which tends to be colder than much of the city during warm spells at this time of year. Throughout the city, temperatures could be anywhere from 2-4°C higher than what’s reported at the ECCC site.

The GDPS is forecasting temperatures up to 12-14°C above normal over the coming few days in Winnipeg.

Skies will see variable cloudiness over the next few days, but we’ll see no real threat of precipitation aside from a very low chance of a light rain shower this evening.

Winds will strength out of the southwest today to around 25-35 km/h with some gustiness, particularly near the western escarpment of the Red River Valley. These winds will continue overnight and then gradually taper off on Saturday. The wind will then swing around to the east/southeast on Saturday night and begin strengthening on Sunday to 20-30 km/h ahead of the next system.

Long Range

The beginning of next week will bring a Colorado Low that poses the threat for significant impact on the region, however it’s difficult to pin down much of a forecast at this point as solutions for this disturbance vary dramatically, with some models dragging the precipitation of the low up the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border and others shunting it well off to the east over Lake Superior.

What we can say is that there will be a Colorado Low that will threaten the region on Monday, potentially into Tuesday. This system will be bringing an abnormally high amount of moisture with it, and with the mild temperatures, that means that any precipitation from it would fall as rain. Forecast amounts have varied, but in general it seems like this system will produce a swath that receives 10-20mm of rain. Whether or not that falls in the Red River Valley will yet to be seen.

That much rainfall would be very abnormal for this time of year. Current rainfall records for this general time of year are:

Winnipeg, MB Rainfall Records for February 19-21
Date Record Type Current Record
February 19 Rainfall 1.0mm (1997)
February 20 Rainfall 0.3mm (1965)
February 21 Rainfall 5.8mm (1877)

The potential to over double the current record rainfall amount, all the while still having frozen ground with high water content and a fair amount of snow would likely introduce a risk for overland flooding.1 In North Dakota, the NWS has issued hazardous weather outlooks regarding this system for the potential for minor water level rises in low-lying areas and for area rivers. In the end, though, there’s still a lot of uncertainty in where exactly this system will track, so we’ll be keeping an eye on things as it develops.

Otherwise, temperatures will finally begin to cool back towards normal behind this system, but it continues to appear like southern Manitoba will be near the primary storm track and see more frequently unsettled weather through the remainder of next week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -8°C while the seasonal overnight low is -18°C.

  1. While I do have training in meteorology, this sort of issue is more of a hydrological challenge. I’m not formally trained in hydrology, but the fields are closely related and I do have some familiarity with it. That said, as it gets closer, monitor the news for any statements from the Province of Manitoba regarding the flooding threat. ↩

Yet Another Winter Heat Wave On The Way

Brad Leave a comment

Significantly above-normal temperatures will once again move into southern Manitoba as an upper-level ridge builds into the Prairies and draws mild Pacific air eastwards across the region.

Temperatures are heading up, up, up as warmer air spreads eastwards across the Prairies, pushed eastwards by a building upper-level ridge that is spreading across the region. The warm weather will peak on Friday with high temperatures near 5°C, some 10-15°C above average for this time of year. Friday’s high temperature may end up challenging the current record high for February 17th of 5.4°C set in 1981.

Temperatures are expected to be 10-20°C above normal throughout Manitoba on Friday

As with the warm spell in January, more abnormal will be the overnight lows which will be relatively mild, hovering near the freezing mark, thanks to fairly cloudy skies. This will result in overnight lows over 15°C above average for mid-February!

Aside from the warm weather, things will be fairly quiet through the remainder of the work week. Highs climb to around 5°C by Friday, lows up to the freezing mark, winds remain relatively light out of the south to southeast at 15-25 km/h, and skies cloud up tonight for much of the remainder of the week. No precipitation is expected through Friday.

Long Range

This weekend sees the upper-level ridge collapse, however temperatures will remain mild as a southerly flow is sustained by a developing Colorado Low. This system is forecast to lift northwards and then spread primarily rain through southern Manitoba on Monday and Tuesday.

Behind this system, temperatures will cool towards seasonal values and it appears a more active pattern may develop as the jet stream remains parked over the Northern Plains.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -8°C while the seasonal overnight low is -18°C.