Benign Weather Continues

The weather will continue to be fairly unremarkable in Winnipeg through the weekend as a fair amount of cloud and above-normal temperatures continue.

More of what’s been in place much of the week is on the way for Winnipeg this weekend. Today will bring highs near -2°C with skies becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip back down to around -8°C tonight and bounce back to a high of -3°C on Saturday, all while under cloudy skies with a chance of flurries. Sunday will bring mixed to cloudy skies with a continued chance of a scattered light flurry or two as temperatures climb to a high near -6°C. More cloud will move in on Sunday night with temperatures climbing to around -4°C by Monday morning.

Flurries are possible across much of Southern Manitoba on Saturday.

Winds will be breezy out of the northwest today at around 30 km/h. They will ease off tonight, and then we’ll see variable winds through the weekend of around 10-20 km/h.

Long Range

Monday has the potential to bring the next organized snowfall to the city as a low pressure system pushes across the region. There’s a lot of uncertainty as to how far south this system will go, but in general it appears that 4-8 cm of snow seems likely for Winnipeg with gusty northwesterly winds in the wake of the system.

After this system, it looks like Southern Manitoba will move into a pattern shift towards seasonal to slightly below-seasonal temperatures.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -12°C while the seasonal overnight low is -22°C.

Slightly Cooler & Becoming Breezy

Temperatures will dip slightly through the second half of the week as breezy northwesterly winds develop across Southern Manitoba.

It’s another fairly simple forecast for the coming days ahead as little changes in the weather other than a slight shift in temperatures.

As a potent low pressure system that brought a wintry mix to South Dakota yesterday moves off into Eastern Canada, the slack flow that’s been in place over the province for the past week will be replaced by a northwesterly flow with breezy winds that will tap into slightly cooler temperatures.

Today will bring winds of 10-20 km/h and temperatures steady around -6°C. There will be a very slight chance of some flurries, but they would be quite light and scattered. Skies will be fairly cloudy, although a brief sunny break or two can’t be ruled out.

Temperatures will dip to around -11°C tonight, the coldest overnight low since January 17th when the mercury dipped to -16.0°C early in the morning.

Thursday will bring a cooler high temperature and relatively light winds as a ridge of high pressure passes across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will top out around -7°C with cloudy skies in the morning giving way to some sunny breaks in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip to a low near -12°C once again on Thursday night under partly cloudy skies.

Northwest winds are expected over Southern Manitoba on Friday

Friday brings mixed skies and strengthening northwesterly winds to 30-40 km/h. Temperatures will climb to a high near -3°C. It looks like the cloud cover will be reinforced late Friday, moderating overnight lows slightly as the temperature drops to about -8°C.

Long Range

The weekend will continue the trend of above normal temperatures and cloudy skies. Don’t expect to see much sunshine as a slight chance of light, scattered flurries persists through the weekend.

Above-Normal Temperatures Expected Until End of January

While the cold snap earlier this month seems to be a vivid memory of many people I talk to, it actually hasn’t been a cold month at all, temperature-wise.

The cold snap began on January 3rd and persisted through January 14th. Throughout that period, daytime highs averaged -17.6°C (4.5°C below normal) while overnight lows averaged -28.1 (5.1°C below normal). This resulted in a mean temperature of -22.8°C for that 12-day stretch, which is 4.8°C below normal.

By comparison, the latest warm spell began on January 15th and has persisted so far until January 24th. During this time frame, daytime highs have averaged -1.6°C (11.3°C above normal) and overnight lows have averaged -7.1°C (15.9°C above normal). The most extreme deviation from normal occurred on January 21st when a minimum temperature of +0.9°C occurred, breaking the daily record for warmest minimum temperature at a whopping 23.8°C above normal.1 This has resulted in a mean temperature of -4.4°C for that 10-day stretch, which is 13.6°C above normal.

All that to say, the warm has been much more unseasonable than the cold. January currently sits with a monthly mean temperature of -14.3°C, which is 3.7°C above normal.

Temperatures are expected to remain mild, albeit not as warm as we experienced earlier in the week, with daytime highs hovering between -8 and -1°C through the end of January. This means that another month of above-normal temperatures will likely be recorded in Winnipeg when January draws to a close.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -12°C while the seasonal overnight low is -23°C.


  1. The previous record warmest January minimum temperature for January 21st was -3.3°C set in 1900. 

NASA Shares First Images From GOES-16

NASA has shared the first images from GOES-16, a new satellite launched in November. GOES-16 is notable for being a truly next-generation weather satellite that will dramatically increase the quantity and quality of satellite-based weather information.

This image clearly shows the significant storm system that crossed North America that caused freezing and ice that resulted in dangerous conditions across the United States on January 15, 2017 resulting in loss of life. GOES-16 will offer 3x more spectral channels with 4x greater resolution, 5x faster than ever before. Credit: NASA

GOES-16 has 6 instruments onboard, two of which are related to weather. The Advanced Baseline Imager, which is the camera that looks down on the earth, will take pictures that are clearer and more detailed than current satellites. It can also scan half the earth, known as a “full-disk” scan, in 5 minutes. If NWS forecasters need to focus on severe weather, GOES-16 can provide smaller-region images every 30 seconds. This is faster than RADAR imagery can even be produced.

The images provided in the linked gallery above are seriously impressive. While the everyday imagery used in weather forecasting won’t be processed to look the same as these images are, the detail present will still be there. I can see this fundamentally shifting our understanding of the weather and allow both meteorologists and weather modellers to improve their forecasting abilities.

GOES-16 was formerly known as GOES-R and was launched on November 19, 2016.

GOES-16 will undergo testing and calibration for much of 2017. It is planned to go operational in November.

A press release regarding these images is available here.

Cloudy & Mild Weather Continues

There’s no end to the mild weather in sight thanks to a stagnant weather pattern that will persist through the remainder of the week. For those that love the sun, it will be a hard week as cloudy conditions persist with a continued chance of light flurry or freezing drizzle activity.

This weekend was a notable one when it came to warmth in Winnipeg as temperatures remained above 0°C for a record-breaking 66 hours, breaking the old record of 44 hours set on January 8/9, 2002. Temperatures first climbed above 0°C at 3PM on Friday January 20th and remained there all the way through 11PM on January 22.

Temperatures hovered between 0 and +2°C in Winnipeg for 66 hours between January 20th and 22nd, 2017.

This record mild spell broke no record high temperatures, but did result in a couple of rainfalls that brought January 2017 to the 2nd rainiest on record with 3.6 mm so far. The rainiest January on record is 1944 when 3.7 mm fell.

So, all that said, the forecast for the next few days is simple.

Cloudy. Today and tomorrow will both bring a continued chance for some light flurry or freezing drizzle activity across the Red River Valley with temperatures topping out near -1°C and light winds. Lows will be near -5°C both tonight and tomorrow night.

Flurries are expected across southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

The area of low pressure that’s entrenched over the region will begin moving out on Tuesday night, allowing some more organized northwesterly winds to develop across the Red River Valley. Winds will strengthen to 20-30 km/h by Wednesday morning and continue throughout the remainder of the day. Temperatures will be cooler with that northwest flow; highs will top out around -3°C and flurries will be widespread across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will dip to a low near -8°C under more cloudy skies on Wednesday night.

Long Range

Relatively mild temperatures will continue through the second half of the week with daytime highs hovering near -5°C. Sun may begin poking out on Thursday, but at this point it looks like Friday will be the first day of the week the sun makes a full comeback. No significant precipitation is expected in the second half of the week.