Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

More Snow as Colorado Low Grazes Manitoba

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More snow is on the way for Southern Manitoba as a Colorado Low grazes the region as it moves through the Dakotas and Minnesota. After the passage of that system, the upper-level pattern will shift and bitterly cold Arctic air will spill southeastward across the Prairies.

Snow will build into Southern Manitoba through the day today from the southwest, with a few isolated flurries in the morning intensifying into more persistent snow through the afternoon. By 6PM, most areas along and south of the Trans-Canada Highway will be seeing snow. The snow will persist through much of the night before tapering off on Tuesday morning.

NAM-based accumulated snowfall for the next storm based on a 10:1 snow ratio.

The NAM model pictured above has been consistently producing a total of between 6-8 cm at a 10:1 snowfall ratio (SLR), however it appears likely that the SLR will be higher at around 14:1, which would push storm-total snowfall ranges in the Red River Valley from around 8-12 cm in Winnipeg to 10-20 cm near the US border. Amounts States-side will be higher, with nearly 25cm of snow expected through east-central North Dakota into Minnesota.

Temperatures will be seasonal with highs in the -9 to -11°C range today and temperatures dropping to -18°C by Tuesday morning.

Winds will be breezy through the day today out of the northeast at around 20-30 km/h. As Winnipeg & the Red River Valley move onto the back-side of this system tonight, winds will strengthen out of the north to northwest to around 40 km/h. These gusty winds will combine with the fresh snowfall to produce blowing snow on area highways with locally poor visibilities. The winds will begin to ease through the early afternoon, bringing an end to the blowing snow.

Cooler Weather For The Remainder Of The Week

Temperatures will be much cooler on Tuesday with little movement from the overnight low near -18°C as colder air moves into the region from the northwest. Even colder conditions will move in on Tuesday night with overnight lows expected to drop to around the -27°C mark. Wednesday will see Winnipeg & the Red River Valley entrenched in the Arctic air with highs near the -22°C mark and an overnight low dipping back down to around the -27°C mark.

The upcoming cold snap can be seen in this forecast for the second half of the week showing the cold air aloft building into Southern Manitoba.

Skies on Tuesday will remain fairly cloudy until the late afternoon when things begin to break up. It doesn’t appear that this cold snap will be associated with particularly sunny skies, though. The main ridge axis will pass well to our west, making it more difficult for all of the cloud to clear from Southern Manitoba. The Red River Valley will mainly see mixed to cloudy skies through much of the week.

Long Range

Little pattern change is expected in the next 7-10 days.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid January 9-16, 2016

As this NAEFS outlook shows, below-normal temperatures will likely remain in place for the next 1-2 weeks. Temperatures may moderate next week to be closer, but still below, seasonal values. Conditions look fairly dry with little snow expected; the next potential for some snow may be with a clipper system early next week.

So after this snowfall, Winnipeg & region will be falling into a relatively quiet and cold pattern, holding strong for at least the next 7-10 days.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -23°C.

Alberta Clipper Plunges Manitoba into the Deep Freeze

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An Alberta Clipper crossing the province today will bring another accumulating snowfall to the region and then usher in a major pattern change that will plunge Central Canada into a deep freeze.

Snow is on tap today for all of the Red River Valley courtesy an Alberta Clipper moving through the region. Snow will spread eastwards through the morning, moving into the Red River Valley between 9AM and 12PM. Snow will persist until the early evening before tapering off.

A large area of 5-10cm of snow is expected today, with a narrow swath likely receiving just over 10cm.

By the time all is said and done most areas along the swath of snowfall will see between 5-10 cm of new snow, however a swath running from Brandon east-southeast through the southern Red River Valley will likely see slightly over 10 cm.

This snowfall comes hot on the heels of a major winter storm that dumped 18-33 cm of snow in Winnipeg on Monday.

Aside from the snow, today will be a little warmer than normal with a high near -10°C. Particularly in the morning, a southeasterly wind of 15-25 km/h will make it feel rather chilly. Winds will ease through the afternoon as they back to north-northwesterly by late this evening. Skies will remain mixed to cloudy overnight with lows dropping to around the -18°C mark.

Saturday will bring mixed to cloudy skies in the morning, with thicker cloud cover and a chance of flurries moving into the region in the afternoon as another low pressure system slumps down from the northwest. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably mild with highs near the -8°C mark. With the new system cloud moving in for the afternoon, a chance of flurries will return to the region. No significant accumulations are expected with this system, but there may end up being enough to get a slight layer on your windshield. The cloud and chance of flurries will continue overnight as temperatures drop to a mild -12°C.

Sunday will start off with cloud and a chance of flurries, but that will clear out through midday as a very broad cold front pushes southwards. Highs will recover a couple degrees from the overnight low to around -10°C, but temperatures will begin dropping sharply when the cloud clears out in the afternoon and colder air begins working in from the north. Lows are expected to drop to around -22°C on Sunday night under clear to partly cloudy skies.

Prairies Fall Into An Arctic Grip

The big story for next week will be the dramatic pattern shift which plunges bitterly cold air southwards across the Prairies and produces daytime highs 5-10°C below normal for this time of year.

Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook valid January 4-9, 2016

Daytime highs are expected to fall through the first half of the week from the mid-minus teens towards the -22 to -24°C range for the second half of the week. Overnight lows are a bit of a trickier challenge as there’s not a lot of certainty as to how much clearing we’ll see, and overnight cloud cover can dramatically impact how cold it gets. There is very high confidence in this cold snap as shown in the above CPC1 graphic, which has a ≥90% chance for below-normal temperatures across much of the western United States (and by extension, the southern Canadian Prairies). This is the largest extent of 90% probability of below-normal temperatures in the 15-year history of this outlook.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid January 6-13, 2017

The cold weather is expected to persist into the following week as well, but may begin abating in the 10-14 day range.

  1. Climate Prediction Center ↩

ECCC Issues 2016 Summer Severe Weather Summary

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Environment & Climate Change Canada (ECCC) issued, for the first time in recent memory, an annual summary of summer severe weather statistics for the Canadian Prairies. With 2016 on record as particularly active year, it’s helpful to receive official numbers from Canada’s official source for weather information.

ECCC defines what exactly a severe thunderstorm event is in their bulletin and what numbers they’re using for averages:

This summary provides the severe weather report numbers for the 2016
summer severe weather season on the Canadian Prairies (Alberta,
Saskatchewan and Manitoba), focusing specifically on severe weather
caused by thunderstorms between April and September. This summary
also compares the 2016 season with the 30 year average (for
tornadoes the 1980-2009 average is used).

A severe thunderstorm event is the occurrence of one or more of:
large hail (two centimetres or larger in diameter), heavy rain (50
mm or more within one hour, strong winds (gusts of 90 km/h or
greater, which could cause structural wind damage) or a tornado.

Summer Severe Weather Events

This year had a total of of 595 summer severe weather reports across Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, a 139% increase over the 30-year average of 249 reports. The largest increase occurred in hail events, where a total of 368 events marked nearly a 2x increase over the 30-year average of 129 events. Notably, Manitoba ended up with the highest number of reports, given that Alberta typically receives more hail than areas further east.1 Manitoba ended up taking top spot in all severe weather categories, which will come to no surprise to those who remember the relentless nature of this summer’s thunderstorm activity.

2016 Severe Weather Event Breakdown

Event Type201630-Year Average% Change
Hail368129+185%
Wind10853+104%
Rain4024+67%
Tornadoes4643+7%
2016 and 30-year normal severe thunderstorm event numbers for Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.

Across all 3 provinces, numbers were up for every single category. Wind reports were above normal as well, which is expected with a significant increase in hail reports; the same features that help thunderstorms produce large hail also often lead to the capability of severe wind gusts. It was also a very wet year across the Prairies with a 67% increase in severe rain reports; of note it was a very wet summer across the Prairies with the wettest areas (compared to normal) being the Southern Red River Valley, southwestern Saskatchewan into southeastern Alberta, and northwestern Alberta. Of note in Manitoba was Letellier, which after taking a beating from what seemed like every single thunderstorm that formed in the Red River Valley ended up with a whopping 752 mm of rain this summer.

2016 Manitoba Severe Weather Event Breakdown

Event Type201630-Year Average% Change
Hail14733+345%
Wind5514+293%
Rain208+150%
Tornadoes1810+80%
2016 and 30-year normal severe thunderstorm event numbers for Manitoba.

While tornado numbers were within 10% of normal across the Prairies, Manitoba had significantly more than typical with a 80% increase over the 30-year normal in 2016. Several of these events were also high-profile events, with tornadoes in Waywayseecapo and Long Plain First Nation causing extensive damage and displacing many people, alongside several other damaging tornadoes events including significant damage in the Glenboro region. Another tornado narrowly missed Morden, however the town was slammed by severe winds in the rear-flank downdraft which caused widespread tree damage throughout the town. Hail reports stand out exceptionally in Manitoba, with nearly a 350% increase over the 30-year average. Overall, all severe weather parameters were well above normal this year in Manitoba thanks to an exceptionally active summer.

2016 Saskatchewan Severe Weather Event Breakdown

Event Type201630-Year Average% Change
Hail7746+67%
Wind1921-10%
Rain97+29%
Tornadoes1418-22%
2016 and 30-year normal severe thunderstorm event numbers for Saskatchewan.

By comparison, Saskatchewan had a relatively quiet summer. While it was very wet in the southwest, the number of severe events was about on par. There were some notable ones, such as the Estevan flood which saw 137 mm of rain fall in must a few hours, but all was more or less on par. Perhaps the biggest news story from Saskatchewan in 2016 was the abundance of cold-core funnel clouds, which highlighted that there are educational opportunities within the public and media sectors with respect to the spectrum of “skinny things in the sky” and what sort of attitude and precautions are appropriate in specific situations.

2016 Alberta Severe Weather Event Breakdown

Event Type201630-Year Average% Change
Hail14450+188%
Wind3418+89%
Rain119+22%
Tornadoes1415-7%
2016 and 30-year normal severe thunderstorm event numbers for Alberta.

Alberta saw a significant increase in hail and wind events, but the rest remained close to on-par for the 30-year average. I can’t speak to their numbers too much as I was keeping plenty busy with the weather here in Manitoba!

Summer Severe Weather Bulletins

ECCC also supplied the number of bulletins they issued across the Prairie region this summer.

2016 Summer Severe Weather Bulletin Breakdown

Type201630-Year Average% Change
Warnings36853036+2.1%
Watches11931067+11.8%
Total48784103+1.9%
2016 and 30-year normal severe thunderstorm bulletin numbers for Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.

The important part to note here is that the warnings are issued for smaller regions than watches. This means that there will be more warnings any given year than there are watches, not that a lot of places without severe thunderstorm watches received warnings. With numbers significantly higher than event reports (as is typical), percentages here will be much smaller than seen above, but represent significant change.

As expected, the number of watches and warnings were higher than average this year. Perhaps the most notable thing is how large those numbers are. It seems summer keeps the folks at ECCC busy!

ECCC’s Bulletin

Below is the entirety of the bulletin issued by ECCC. As it was issued as a weather summary, it won’t remain on ECCC’s site past the day of issue.

Weather summary
for Manitoba
issued by Environment Canada
at 7:39 a.m. CST Wednesday 28 December 2016.

Discussion.

2016 Prairie Summer Severe Weather Season Summary 

This summary provides the severe weather report numbers for the 2016 
summer severe weather season on the Canadian Prairies (Alberta, 
Saskatchewan and Manitoba), focusing specifically on severe weather 
caused by thunderstorms between April and September. This summary 
also compares the 2016 season with the 30 year average (for 
tornadoes the 1980-2009 average is used). 

A severe thunderstorm event is the occurrence of one or more of: 
large hail (two centimetres or larger in diameter), heavy rain (50 
mm or more within one hour, strong winds (gusts of 90 km/h or 
greater, which could cause structural wind damage) or a tornado. 

Thunderstorms are the most frequent weather threat to life and 
property on the Canadian Prairies. The 2016 summer severe weather 
season was very active, and was longer than average. In 2016, there 
were 595 reported severe weather events from thunderstorms on the 
Prairies. There were 46 reported tornadoes, 368 severe hail reports, 
108 reports of severe winds and 40 reports of severe rainfall. Of 
the 46 reported tornadoes, 15 had associated damage. 

Summary of severe weather types for all 3 Prairie Provinces, by 
number of reports: 

Hail 
2016: 368 
30 year average: 129 

Wind 
2016: 108 
30 year average: 53 

Rain 
2016: 40 
30 year average: 24 

Tornadoes 
2016: 46 
1980-2009 average: 43 

All types 
2016: 595 
30 year average: 249 

Summary of severe weather types for Alberta, by number of reports: 

Hail 
2016: 144 
30 year average: 50 

Wind 
2016: 34 
30 year average: 18 

Rain 
2016: 11 
30 year average: 9 

Tornadoes 
2016: 14 
1980-2009 average: 15 

Summary of severe weather types for Saskatchewan, by number of 
reports: 

Hail 
2016: 77 
30 year average: 46 

Wind 
2016: 19 
30 year average: 21 

Rain 
2016: 9 
30 year average: 7 

Tornadoes 
2016: 14 
1980-2009 average: 18 

Summary of severe weather types for Manitoba, by number of reports: 

Hail 
2016: 147 
30 year average: 33 

Wind 
2016: 55 
30 year average: 14 

Rain 
2016: 20 
30 year average: 8 

Tornadoes 
2016: 18 
1980-2009 average: 10 

The Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre is responsible for 
thunderstorm watches and warnings for the three Prairie Provinces, 
as well as Nunavut and the Northwest Territories. These duties are 
shared between two offices, located in Edmonton and Winnipeg. The 
PASPC Edmonton and Winnipeg offices issued 3685 thunderstorm or 
tornado warnings and 1193 thunderstorm or tornado watches for the 
Prairies during the 2016 severe weather season. This was above the 
average (2005 to present) of 3036 warnings issued and 1067 watches 
issued. 

Summary of alert bulletins for all 3 Prairie Provinces, by number 
issued: 

2016 Warnings: 3685 
30 year average: 3036 

2016 Watches: 1193 
30 year average: 1067 

2016 total alert bulletins: 4878 
30 year average: 4103 

This summary contains all reports provided to the Prairie and Arctic 
Storm Prediction Centre as of December 2016. These data may be 
updated if new information surfaces. Unless otherwise noted, the 30 
year average is for the period from 1986 to 2015.

Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial 
information and does not constitute a complete or final report.

End/PASPC

For more information on this summer’s severe weather & variation from climatological normals in Manitoba, check out our State of the Climate – A Stormy Summer 2016 post.

  1. This is because Alberta is physically higher up than Saskatchewan or Manitoba, which when combined with the typically cooler temperatures aloft coming off of the Rockies, leads to significantly less distance for the hail to travel before reaching the ground. In Manitoba, the melting level is typically quite high off the ground, so hail has to travel through a greater depth of warmer air, resulting in a greater frequency of really big raindrops.↩

A Mixed Bag Heading Towards the New Year

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Winnipeg will see a bit of a mixed bag over the next few days with some light flurries, some sun, and more accumulating snow on the way.

Today will bring some light flurries to the region as a weak disturbance moves out of the Red River Valley. Accumulations are expected to be minimal, and the light snow will taper off towards the afternoon as the clouds begin pushing off to the east, allowing a bit of sunshine through the afternoon in Winnipeg. Temperatures will be much milder than yesterday with highs near -4°C, but winds will be quite breezy out of the west to around 30 km/h.

Tonight will bring more cloud across the Red River Valley as temperatures drop to a low near -10°C with a northwest wind at 20-30 km/h.

For Thursday, Winnipeg will be under a weak ridge of high pressure. This will bring an end to the flurries, but won’t have enough “oomph” to actually completely clear things out. Skies will likely remain mixed—with perhaps some afternoon clearing—through the day. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than Wednesday with a high near -8°C. Thursday night will bring increasing cloud and a low near -16°C while winds pick up out of the southeast to around 20 km/h ahead of the next incoming weather system.

The NAM shows a swath of 2-3″ of snow (5-8cm) across Southern Manitoba on Friday.

An Alberta Clipper moving through on Friday will bring cloudy skies with snow that starts by mid-morning and persists through to the evening. Temperatures will climb to a high near -8°C with winds tapering off in the afternoon. By the time the snow stops, another 4-8 cm of the stuff will have fallen. Skies will remain mostly cloudy on Friday night with temperatures falling to a low near -17°C.

Long Range

The weekend is looking fairly seasonal for late December in Winnipeg. Saturday will bring mixed to mostly cloudy skies and a high around the -12°C mark. A disturbance moving through Saturday night will bring a chance of flurries and mark the start of a pattern change. Temperatures will slowly fall through the day on Sunday with a brisk northerly wind.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid January 3 – 10, 2017

Colder weather is on tap for next week as the Polar Vortex re-establishes itself over the central Canadian Arctic, allowing much colder air to slump southwards. Daytime highs next week will fall into the -20’s with overnight lows approaching -30°C.

This transition will mark a change that will likely persist through the first half of January. Although short1 warm-ups to near-seasonal values are possible, temperatures will largely be below-normal and quite cold.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -12°C while the seasonal overnight low is -23°C.

  1. Perhaps a single day or so. ↩