Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Old Man Winter is Here to Stay

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The cold weather is here to stay across Southern Manitoba as a continuous northwesterly flow aloft, thanks to the established vortex over Hudson Bay, continues to pump Arctic air southwards.

Satellite imagery shows much of Manitoba entrenched on the cold side of the Arctic jet while the entire Prairies remains on the cold side of the Polar jet.
Satellite imagery shows much of Manitoba entrenched on the cold side of the Arctic jet while the entire Prairies remains on the cold side of the Polar jet.

While temperatures won’t be as cold as was seen across the Prairies over the weekend thanks to a slight moderation of temperatures as the coldest air rotates out of the Prairies into NW Ontario, daytime highs will still be significantly below the normal[1] temperatures for this time of year.

Monday
-21°C / -25°C
Mainly sunny
Tuesday
-19°C / -27°C
Mixed skies with a chance of flurries
Wednesday
-20°C / -23°C
Mainly sunny

Today will bring mainly sunny skies to Winnipeg with just a few clouds later in the morning and through the afternoon. Skies will likely be a bit cloudier east of Winnipeg in the Red River Valley, but nothing particularly significant is expected in the way of cloud cover as the bulk of it should remain to the north and east of the Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb to around –21°C with fairly light winds which should bring an end to the –40 or colder wind chills early this morning. Expect temperatures to dip to around –24°C tonight with a little more cloud cover moving in.

Tomorrow looks cold again with highs near –20°C or so under mixed skies. A few flurries are possible, particularly through Winnipeg & the eastern half of the Red River Valley. Winds will be a bit breezy out of the northwest at around 20–30km/h which will make it feel a fair bit colder. Skies should clear out tomorrow evening with the winds tapering off as temperatures head to a low of around –27°C.

Wednesday looks like another mainly sunny day with a high near –20°C and winds out of the west at 15–20km/h. The “bigger” story will be on Wednesday night into Thursday morning when a weak system slides across Southern Manitoba, bringing some light snow with it. No significant accumulations are expected, though.

Signs of a Warm-Up in the Long-Range?

There may be a little hope for a reprieve from the cold as long-range forecast models are beginning to show signs that the current pattern may begin to break down next week, allowing some milder air back into the Prairies.

The NAEFS is hinting towards a warm-up towards seasonal to above-seasonal temperatures next week.
The NAEFS is hinting towards a warm-up towards seasonal to above-seasonal temperatures next week.

It’s still a little early to say for certain what’s going to happen – the long-range outlooks are only slightly hinting towards above normal temperatures. In general, it looks like we should see a trend next week back towards more seasonal temperatures.

  1. The normal daytime highs for Winnipeg in January are really just an average of extremes. The record high temperature for January 5th is 6.7°C set in 2012 while the record minimum high temperature is –30.7°C set last year in 2014. When your spread on daytime highs is 37°C, it’s hard to pin down a “normal” or “seasonal” high.  ↩

Alberta Clipper Plunges Manitoba Into The Deep Freeze

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An Alberta Clipper moving through the province on Friday into Saturday will pack a potent punch – likely the worst storm so far this winter for most places, including Winnipeg – bringing a decent shot of snow alongside strong winds producing significant blowing snow. To cap things off, a bitterly cold air mass will move into the region bringing extremely cold temperatures & wind chill.

Friday
-14°C / -21°C
Early morning flurries, then snow beginning late in the day
Saturday
⇓ -26°C / -32°C
Snow tapering off then clearing; windy & cold
Sunday
-27°C / -33°C
Mainly sunny

Friday will start off mainly cloudy as a brief shot of light snow exits the province. Amounts from this band will be just a couple cm or less and this leading impulse will be nothing compared to what will be moving in later in the day.

Before that, though, skies will become more mixed with temperatures gradually climbing to around –14°C. Winds will remain relatively light until the Alberta Clipper moves into the region tonight.

Snow will push into Southwestern & Parkland Manitoba this afternoon and quickly spread eastwards across the remainder of the province by the evening. Snowfall will be quite intense, with rates reaching as much as 2cm/hr in the heaviest band. The heaviest snow will fall through Friday night and then taper off from west to east through the day on Saturday.

Expected snowfall totals across Southern Manitoba. The heaviest snow is expected to fall within 50km or so on either side of the U.S. border.
Expected snowfall totals across Southern Manitoba. The heaviest snow is expected to fall within 50km or so on either side of the U.S. border.

By the time the snow tapers off on Saturday, up to 25cm of snow may have fallen through the heaviest band of snow which is centered along the international border and cuts across the Southern Red River Valley. Winnipeg will likely receive on the higher end of 10–15cm of snow while amounts then taper off through the northern Parkland region and central Interlake.

Measuring that snow may be quite difficult, though, as strong northwesterly winds to 40km/h move into the Red River Valley. With all the fresh snow, widespread blowing snow is very likely on area highways with the potential for significant restrictions to visibility. In areas of the southern Red River Valley, we may even see the development of a full-on blizzard with the higher amount of fresh snowfall and slightly stronger winds due to the funnelling of the valley. Driving conditions will likely be quite poor, so be sure to give yourself plenty of additional time if you need to travel and remember to always carry a winter survival kit in your vehicle.

There’s only one story once the snow tapers off on Saturday and skies begin to clear: bitter cold. It’s going to get very, very cold across the entire province with the coldest air mass of the season diving southwards behind the clipper. Saturday will see temperatures slipping through the day to around –26°C which will then plummet down to –32 or –33°C overnight. With winds of 10–20km/h persisting overnight, wind chill values of –40 to –45 will be widespread through Southern Manitoba.[1]

Sunday will bring barely any recovery with temperatures struggling to get to a paltry –27°C. Expect the low on Sunday night to dip back down to –32 or –33°C with wind chills agin in the –40 to –45 range.

No Warmth In The Long-Range

Looking ahead to next week, conditions look dry with little to offer as reprieve from the cold. Daytime highs will moderate towards the –20°C mark, but overnight lows in the low minus-twenties will be sticking around for a while.

The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature anomaly outlook.
The NAEFS 8–14 day temperature anomaly outlook.

Looking even further ahead, there are little in the way of strong signals. There’s about a 50/50 chance of below-seasonal temperatures continuing, but compared to this week, it’s at least a trend towards more seasonal temperatures. It’s not much, but when we’re getting as cold as we will this weekend, I’ll take what I can get.

  1. This will likely result in an extreme cold warning being issued by Environment Canada, as their criteria is a temperature or wind chill colder than –40.  ↩

Mid-Week Warm-Up Gives Way to a Stormy Return to the Cold

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Manitobans can enjoy slight relief from the bitter cold that has been in place the last few days as more seasonal temperatures are in place thanks to a fairly large low pressure system passing through Hudson Bay that has dragged the warm air all the way east from the Rocky Mountains. Unfortunately, the milder weather will be short lived as a series of cold fronts sweep southwards into the United States ushering the colder air back into the region.

Wednesday
-11°C / -17°C
Mixed skies with a slight chance of flurries
Thursday
-14°C / -17°C
Increasing cloud
Friday
-15°C / -19°C
Partly cloudy

Temperatures will climb to around –11°C today with mixed skies as a warm front slides through the region from the northwest. There will be a slight chance of flurries, particularly first thing in the morning and again in the evening into the overnight period, but otherwise it will be a seasonally nice day with westerly winds at 30–40km/h. Expect temperatures to drop to around –17°C tonight.

Thursday will be a bit of an in between day; a weak cold front passing through will bring daytime highs cooler than Wednesday – somewhere around –14°C or so – and a fairly sunny start to the day. By the afternoon, more cloud should begin working its way in from the west alongside the next low approaching from Saskatchewan. Little in the way of snow is expected here on Thursday or Thursday night and winds will be relatively light. Temperatures will dip back down to –17°C once again on Thursday night.

Friday will be the sunniest day of the second half of the week. A slight chance of some morning flurries will quickly clear out as we head to a high of around –15°C with light winds. However, a storm is brewing, and by Friday evening an Alberta clipper will be making its way into Southern Manitoba, set to pack a compact wallop as it moves through Friday night and Saturday.

End-of-Week Alberta Clipper Brings Winter Storm to Manitoba

An Alberta Clipper is forecast to track across Southern Manitoba Friday night into Saturday, bringing with it a significant shot of snow, strong winds, and then a plummet back into frigid Arctic air.

Note: Alberta clippers are compact systems whose impact depends significantly on their track. As we’re still several days out from this system, please take the following as just general guidance and remember that with a slight change in track, significant changes in the weather could be seen for any one location.

Snow will spread eastwards into southwestern Manitoba and the Parkland region on Friday evening, progressing across the remainder of the province through the evening hours. A relatively sharp deformation zone will set up across the Parkland & Interlake regions, limiting the northward extent of the snow. While many regions will see accumulating snow, the greatest amounts will be along the Trans-Canada corridor and the western escarpment of the Red River Valley.

First-guess snowfall amounts for the upcoming storm system this weekend.
First-guess snowfall amounts for the upcoming storm system this weekend.

By the time the snow stops on Saturday evening, around 10–15cm of snow may have fallen in a large swath encompassing much of the Trans-Canada corridor and areas south to the U.S. border. An area of higher snowfall will likely develop somewhere near the US border, perhaps just south into North Dakota, depending significantly on where & when the system pivots and begins heading E/NE instead of SE. In the core of heaviest snowfall, as much as 15–25cm of snowfall looks possible. Much of the Parkland and southern Interlake will see between 4–8cm, with amounts tapering off fairly quickly north of that.

In addition to the snow, this system will have fairly strong winds associated with it. Ahead of the low, easterly to northeasterly winds will strengthen to a gusty 30–40km/h. As the system passes through, winds will strengthen out of the northwest to around 50km/h with gusts as high as 70–75km/h. The strong northwesterly winds coupled with the ample fresh snow will likely produce blizzard conditions and make travel dangerous on Saturday. If you have travel plans, make a plan B in case this forecast happens to be right.

Temperatures will reach a high around –15°C on Saturday and then plummet to around –30°C on Saturday night with wind chill values near –45. Sunday looks clear and bitterly cold with a high of only around –26°C coupled with 20–30km/h winds that will produce wind chill values in the –35 to –40 range. If these wind chill values materalize, we’ll likely see extreme cold warnings issued for much of Southern Manitoba through the weekend.[1]

As mentioned, there is potentially significant variability to this forecast and what I’ve presented is the current most likely scenario. I’ll be keeping tabs on this system through the week and provide updates in the comments below and another full look at it in Friday morning’s blog post.

  1. If the extreme cold occurs while blizzard conditions are ongoing, the blizzard warning would “include” the extreme cold.  ↩

Winter Chill Settles Over Southern Manitoba

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A strong Arctic ridge has brought the coldest weather so far this winter into the province. Temperatures will be well below seasonal[1] for much of the coming week.

Monday
-21°C / -31°C
Sunny

Tuesday
-23°C / ⇑ -18°C
Mainly sunny

Wednesday
-12°C / -22°C
Mixed to cloudy skies

Today’s post will be a relatively brief one since there simply isn’t much weather to talk about. Today and tomorrow will both be very cold days with highs not even hitting –20°C under mainly sunny skies. Tonight will bring lows dipping below the –30°C mark and winds at 10–15km/h creating wind chill values near or just below –40.[2] Tomorrow night will be quite a bit different, though, as an approaching low pressure system brings increasing cloud and climbing temperatures. By Wednesday morning, skies should be mixed to mainly cloudy with temperatures near –18°C. Through the remainder of Wednesday we should continue to see mixed to cloudy skies with temperatures climbing to around –12 or –11°C. There’s a slight chance for some flurry activity, but in general temperatures look a bit on the cool side for the kind of snow that would be possible. Skies clear on Wednesday night as temperatures drop into the –20 to –25°C range.

New Year, Same Story

Despite the promise of a new year beginning on Thursday, the story will be one we’ve heard before: a return to the deep freeze.

The NAEFS shows a high probabilty of below-normal temperatures next week.
The NAEFS shows a high probabilty of below-normal temperatures next week.

Another shot of bitterly cold Arctic air will begin working its way into the Prairies through the latter half of the week, with daytime highs dropping from the low minus teens into the –20 to –25°C range by the weekend. Overnight lows will follow suit, also dropping through the week and likely dipping below –30°C by the weekend. Little to no snow is expected. The exceptionally cold weather is expected to persist into next week.

  1. Seasonal daytime highs for this time of year in Winnipeg sit near –12°C  ↩
  2. –40 is Environment Canada’s threshold for extreme cold warnings, so we may see Southern Manitoba once again blanketed in warnings this afternoon.  ↩