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Major Winter Storm to Start the Week

March 4, 2013April 3, 2015 Brad Leave a comment

A major winter storm will impact all of Southern Manitoba to start the week. Accumulations will be very heavy in some areas, but luckily this won’t be another blizzard.

Weather Conditions at 12pm on Monday (GEM-Regional)

A developing low pressure system currently located in south-western Saskatchewan will be responsible for the snow. This system was formed as a powerful upper-level disturbance moved onshore in British Columbia late last night. This disturbance continues to track across the Prairies and will provide the lift necessary to generate the snow.

The snow has already begun to fall in south-western Manitoba this evening. Bands of moderate to heavy snow have been falling just south-west of Brandon. Heavy snow will continue to develop in this region as the evening progresses. Further east in the Red River Valley snow will begin to fall gradually this evening, with heavier bands moving in overnight. By Monday morning all of Southern Manitoba will be in the snow. It is expected that the heaviest snow will fall mainly south and west of Winnipeg, particularly along the international border, though the city will see decent accumulations as well. The following graphic shows our snowfall forecast for Southern Manitoba:

Snowfall totals by Tuesday morning across Southern Manitoba.

The wind through this event won’t be particularly strong, with speeds of 20-30km/h gusting to 40-50km/h expected during the day on Monday. This will cause some blowing and drifting snow on the highways, but within urban areas the wind won’t be a significant factor. Temperatures through the day on Monday will be fairly steady in the mid to upper minus single digits, so the wind chill won’t be very high either. The snow will taper off on Tuesday night, with only lingering flurries expected by daybreak on Tuesday.

Tuesday will see our weather begin to settle down as the storm departs. As mentioned above, we may see a few flurries during the day on Tuesday, but additional accumulations will be small. Temperatures won’t drop off much, with highs once again in the mid to upper single digits.

Wednesday will again be a rather unexciting day weather-wise. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper minus single digits with a brisk south-easterly wind.

Seasonal Weather Continues Through Weekend

March 1, 2013April 3, 2015 Brad Leave a comment

Our streak of surprisingly seasonal weather will continue through the weekend as another push of Pacific air sweeps across the Southern Prairies.

850mb temperatures valid on Saturday morning. A warm front will be pushing across Southern Manitoba ushering in mild Pacific air and a very slight chance of a dusting of snow.

Friday

Mainly sunny.
-7°C / -14°C

We’ll see a mainly sunny day today as spend a final day under the effects of a weak ridge. Temperatures will climb to around –7°C, although depending where you are in Winnipeg, temperatures could climb locally to –5 or –4°C as more and more concrete is exposed.[1] Temperatures will dip down tonight to around –15°C before clouds begin to move in ahead of the approaching warm front.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday

Mainly cloudy.
-3°C / -7°C

Saturday

Mainly cloudy.
-2°C / -7°C

Milder Pacific air will push into the Red River Valley this weekend warming temperatures up close to the 0°C mark. Both Saturday and Sunday will be mainly cloudy and other than a very slight chance on Saturday morning of a light dusting, no snow is expected. Temperatures will only drop to around –7 or –8°C both Saturday and Sunday night.

Next Week

Models seem to indicate a system diving southwards into North Dakota but differ on what to expect from it. Current indications are that no significant snowfall will be seen over Southern Manitoba, although the GEM-GLB is painting a swath of 20+cm through our region. We’ll keep a close eye on it as the weekend progresses. Even with the passage of this system, temperatures aren’t expected to drop more than a few degrees and we should continue to see daytime highs warmer than –10°C through the week.

Concrete has a lower albedo than snow-covered ground. Albedo is a measure of reflectivity of a surface; because concrete’s albedo is lower, it reflects less sunlight and warms up more. This effect is very noticeable at this time of year over forested areas where temperatures can climb as much as 10°C higher than open, snow-covered areas adjacent to them. ↩

Pleasant Weather Continues

February 27, 2013April 3, 2015 Brad Leave a comment

The beautiful weather we’ve been having this week will continue in a slightly cooler fashion through the rest of the week as the benign weather pattern holds on.

500mb heights and wind speeds valid at 18Z on Thursday. A slack flow will continue over Southern Manitoba through the rest of the week.

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy.
-3°C / -11°C

Today will be the least pleasant day of the bunch as a passing “cool” front moves through the Red River Valley. Winds will pick up this morning to 30km/h out of the north as we climb to a high of around –3°C. With mainly cloudy skies expected through the day today, it will feel a little cool out there. No snow is expected, but one certainly can’t rule out a few flakes, especially near the western escarpment of the RRV and over SW Manitoba. The clouds will begin to break up overnight as we drop to around –11°C.

Thursday and Friday

Thursday

Mix of sun and cloud.
-6°C / -15°C

Friday

Mainly sunny.
-6°C / -16°C

Thursday will see a mixed sky as a weak ridge of high pressure sits across Southern Manitoba. As we move into Friday this ridge will be able to slowly erode most of the cloud over the Red River Valley, although SW Manitoba will likely remain relatively cloudy over this same time. Other than Friday being sunnier, Thursday & Friday look to be near carbon-copies of each other with daytime highs near –6°C and overnight lows dipping to around –15°C. Winds should remain fairly light to the end of the work week.

It’s worth mentioning that with the sun beginning to get stronger, even at temperatures around –5°C the sun will be able to work at melting the snow. With a weak ridge over us and light winds, it’s fairly likely that some fog patches will develop through the Red River Valley during the nights. At this time, it doesn’t seem like they should be too extensive, but it’s certainly possible that they could be quite dense. Over the past few nights, fog has formed just south of the U.S. border and reduced visibilities to as low as 200–300m. Any fog that does form should burn off fairly quickly by mid-morning.

Mild and Settled

February 25, 2013April 3, 2015 Brad Leave a comment

This week will start out mild, with little in the way of active weather.

NAM model predicted 500mb winds showing a slack flow through Southern Manitoba

A relatively stagnant flow will prevail over Manitoba for much of this week as the main storm track remains well to our south. This will give us seasonably mild temperatures and little if any precipitation.

Monday

Mainly sunny
-2°C / -16°C

Tuesday

Mainly sunny. Chance of flurries overnight.
-1°C / -8°C

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy. Chance of flurries.
-4°C / -18°C

Monday and Tuesday

Monday will be a pleasant day, with temperatures in the low minus single digits in most areas. There may be a few readings up near the zero degree mark in localized patches. There will be a light to moderate south wind through the day, but it won’t be particularly noticeable in most urbanized areas.

Tuesday will be almost identical to Monday, with temperatures once again generally around or just below zero. There may be patches of fog in Southern Manitoba again on Tuesday morning, but they will dissipate with daytime heating in the morning. The south wind from Monday will die off for the most part, making it a non-factor. A passing weather system may bring us some light snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday, but accumulations will be small.

Wednesday

As that system passes by on Wednesday morning, a weak cold front will go through, dropping temperatures slightly. This won’t prompt any kind of significant cool-down, but it will switch the wind to a slightly brisker northerly flow. Temperatures won’t change much however, with high temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits.

Long Range

In the longer range there is little to talk about. It appears we’ll cool down a bit towards week’s end, but otherwise models show no real trends over the next 7-10 days. No significant warm-ups are in the forecast, nor are there are major weather systems in the forecast. Unfortunately, this also means there is still no sign of spring…but at least there’s no sign of a nasty winter pattern returning either.

A Weather Moment

Author: Brad