Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Warmer Weather and a Bit of Snow on The Way

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Arctic ridging will keep our temperatures low over the next couple days but rest assured, warmer weather is on the way.

12hr. QPF for Thurday Night

12hr. precipitation amounts for Thursday night. A band of snow will pass through Southern Manitoba with greatest accumulations through the Interlake region and amounts diminishing towards the U.S. border.

We’ll see another cooler than normal day today as a weak low passing through Central/Eastern Manitoba pulls more cold air southwards and allows re-enforcement of the Arctic ridge in place over the Prairies. We’ll see temperatures climb to about -10°C under a mix of sun and clouds today as breezy winds develop out of the south to 30km/h. This will make it feel a lot closer to -20 out there. There may be a slight chance of a very light flurry over Winnipeg and the Eastern Red River Valley this afternoon, however the chances are slim and if it does happen, there won’t be any significant accumulations.

Temperatures will dip towards the -18 to -20°C mark tonight under partly cloudy skies. Tomorrow we’ll see another day with highs near -10°C with a mix of sun and clouds. A warm front will push through on Thursday night, bringing with it some light snow to the Red River Valley. Lightest accumulations will be in the Southern Red River Valley with greater amounts in the Northern Red River Valley into the Interlake; in general, 2-4cm accumulations are likely. Areas south of Morris may, however, end up with little to no snowfall if the area of snow stays just a little tighter to the system centre as it passes through.

For Friday into the weekend we’ll see an unsettled pattern with bouts of light snow possible through much of the time. We’ll be under cloudy skies, but comparatively balmy temperatures will be in place with daytime highs generally around -1 to -3°C.

Cold Start to the Week

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This week will start off feeling a lot more like winter, as temperatures drop well below normal.

A high pressure system will bring cold conditions to Southern Manitoba on Monday

A high pressure system will bring cold conditions to Southern Manitoba on Monday

Temperatures this morning will be more like those you’d expect in late January, not late November. This morning’s cold temperatures will moderate somewhat by afternoon, with highs in the mid minus teens expected – not exactly November weather! Luckily some cloud cloud should move in during the afternoon hours, allowing Monday night to be significantly warmer than Monday morning. In fact temperatures may rise a bit on Monday night, up into the -6 to -10C range, in association with a weak low pressure system passing through. This low will bring a few flurries to Southern Manitoba overnight, with accumulations of no more than a centimetre or two expected. Unfortunately, another high pressure system will build in behind this passing low, bringing colder temperatures again for the daytime hours of Tuesday. Temperatures will begin falling back into the minus teens on Tuesday morning as cooler air spills in from the north-west. Tuesday night will be another cold one, with lows back down around the -20C mark. It looks like another small warm-up is on the way for Wednesday as yet another passing low pressure centre allows temperatures to climb back up into the minus single digits.

There remains some uncertainly in terms of how the late week period will play out. Models generally agree that we will stay below-normal for Thursday and Friday, but exactly how cold is not entirely clear. There have also been hints of a more active storm track setting up through Southern Manitoba from next weekend into the following week, something to watch as this week progresses.

A Mixed Bag

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We’ll see some sun, some more snow, and temperatures all over the place as we see a wild weather pattern over the next few days.

12hr. QPF for Saturday

Precipitation accumulation for Saturday, showing some snow pushing through Southern Manitoba with greatest accumulations north and east of Winnipeg.

Sunshine will dominate today as a very strong Arctic high slumps through the Prairies. This high pressure system is a result of cold Arctic air pushing southwards behind a cold front that passed through yesterday. This will limit daytime highs today in the Red River Valley to only about -12°C. Temperatures will plummet towards -20°C tomorrow night as the ridge pushes through Southern Manitoba and breaks up remnant cloud left behind.

More cloud will begin pushing in late overnight into Saturday morning as another system tracks through the Northern Prairies. This system will warm things up a bit for us, bringing our daytime high on Saturday to a comparatively balmy temperature climbing just over -5°C. To go with those warmer temperatures will be some light snow with accumulations only around 2cm for much of the Red River Valley, including Winnipeg.

This system moves out on Saturday night, and we’ll move into a slightly more stable pattern. Sunday will likely be a mix of sun and cloud as we deal with a little bit of cloud left behind from Saturday’s system, with a high near -12°C again. As we head into next week, things look fairly steady with overnight lows near -15°C and daytime highs starting in the high minus teens and climbing into the low minus single digits.

A Return to Winter

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Colder air is set to return by the end of the week as a low pressure system ushers in Arctic air as winds shift to the northwest behind it.

GFS Sounding for 06Z Thursday

A sounding for 06Z Thursday (midnight-ish tonight) from the GFS model depicting an above-freezing level.

Before the cold weather returns we’ll have one more pleasant day. Although skies will be cloudy today, we’ll see temperatures once again climbing above 0°C through the Red River Valley with a light southerly flow. Conditions will begin to degrade overnight as a low pressure system pushes into Southern Manitoba.

The first threat with this system will be the potential for freezing rain tonight. As the sounding1 above shows, an AFL (Above Freezing Level) with sub-zero surface temperatures will be in place through much of the overnight period before eroding early Thursday morning. The saving grace for the Red River Valley could be that most of the precipitation looks to push north of the valley through the Interlake. If, however, any precipitation manages to wander through the RRV overnight, then there’s certainly a decent chance it’ll fall as freezing rain. Cooler air begins pushing in at all levels early Thursday as we move to the back side of this system and winds switch to the northwest.

Winds will strengthen out of the northwest on Thursday to 40km/h with gusts towards 60km/h as a band of snow slumps southwards with the cold front. At this point, it looks like snow will push into the Red River Valley mid-morning and last until the early evening (6-8PM). Snowfall accumulations will likely be around 5cm. Temperatures will start near -5°C tomorrow morning and fall to -8 or -9°C by the evening. We’ll head to an overnight low of around -15°C tomorrow night.

Sunny skies should dominate Friday and Saturday with highs near -10°C. A weak disturbance looks to bring a chance of light snow to the Red River Valley again on Sunday.

  1. A “sounding” is a way of plotting how the temperature and dewpoint change with height. The sounding is for a single location and plots the temperature/dewpoint with height in pressure coordinates as the vertical axis. ↩