A Weather Moment • Page 273 of 474 • Weather Forecasts, Facts and News for Winnipeg & Southern Manitoba

Weather Warms For A Beautiful Weekend

November 13, 2015November 12, 2015 Brad Leave a comment

Temperatures are set to soar well above-seasonal this weekend as another blast of mild Pacific air surges eastwards across the Prairies.

Today will be the least pleasant of the coming few days in Southern Manitoba. A warm front pushing eastwards across the region will begin pushing warmer air into the Red River Valley, but alongside that prospective warmth will come those pesky southerly winds, picking up to around 40km/h by the afternoon. Those brisk winds will make our high of 3 or 4°C feel quite a bit cooler than that.

On the bright side, the sun will make an appearance for much of the day. While there may be a bit of cloudiness remaining this morning, particularly south of Lake Winnipeg where some lake-effect drizzle or flurries will be tapering off, a drier flow pushing into the region will clear skies and bring us plenty of sunshine for the afternoon.

Expect temperatures to dip to around 1°C tonight with a few clouds moving through and breezy conditions continuing.

RDPS Surface Wind Forecast — Windy conditions are expected throughout portions of the Northern Plains and Manitoba this afternoon.

Saturday will be a very pleasant day with mainly sunny conditions and much lighter winds than today. Temperatures will climb to around 8°C this afternoon, about 9°C above the seasonal average daytime high of –1°C. Temperatures will drop to around +1°C tonight with fairly cloudy skies developing. There are some hints that fog or drizzle may form over the Red River Valley on Saturday night, so we’ll keep an eye on that.

Sunday will see morning cloud dissipate alongside any fog or drizzle that manages to develop and be left with a sunny afternoon and temperatures soaring over 10°C above normal to around 10°C. Winds will not be much of an issue, making it an absolutely beautiful day.

Mild Weather Continues

As we continue to push further into meteorological winter, we generally expect the effects of a strong El Niño to become more pronounced, and so far, that’s exactly what we’ve been seeing as temperature anomalies intensify across North America.

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — The CPC 6-10 day temperature anomaly forecast continues to lean towards above-normal temperatures for Winnipeg through the end of next week.

The warm weather is expected to continue for our region, with above-normal temperature anomalies are continue to be forecast for the region. Despite the fact that our average daytime high continues to fall, daytime highs on the positive side of freezing continue to persist in the long-range forecast.

Other than temperatures, little precipitation is in the forecast as well; despite multiple systems tracking through the region, the bulk of precipitation is expected to our north and south, leaving us with some windy days, but still looking for the first big snowfall. That said, the longer we can keep the snow off the ground, the longer our above-zero highs can persist!

Seasonal Temperatures & Dreary Weather Rounds Out The Week

November 11, 2015November 10, 2015 Brad Leave a comment

The remainder of the work week will bring fairly seasonal temperatures to Winnipeg as the weather slowly improves. For the weekend, however, another blast of well above-seasonal temperatures is on the way!

Today will see a continuation of yesterday’s fog and drizzle patches through the morning hours, but it should dissipate with conditions improving by late morning as a weak cold front passes through the region. Behind that, we’ll be left with mainly cloudy conditions and light winds as the temperature climbs to around 3°C. The cloud cover will stick around overnight as we head to a low near –1°C.

Thursday will see a chance of flurries in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley as a weak shortwave drifts over the region in the northwest flow aloft. Northwesterly winds to around 20km/h will accompany a very close to seasonal high of 1°C. If we do see snow, it won’t accumulate to much, if anything at all.

12hr. Cumulative QPF valid 00Z Friday November 13, 2015 — Flurries are possible through the day on Thursday while a much larger system passes through Ontario. Accumulations are expected to be light.

After the shortwave passes through on Thursday, skies will begin to clear, although with so much low-level moisture in the region, exact timing will be tricky. Skies will likely clear out at some point Thursday evening/overnight, however the cloud might persist into Friday morning before clearing. This timing will affect our overnight low forecast; if things clear out earlier, then we should see a low near –5°C or so, while if the cloud sticks around through the night, the low will be closer to –1 or –2° C.

Regardless of how Friday starts, we’ll be heading towards a mainly sunny high of 3 or 4 °C. Friday’s overnight low will sit near 0 to +1°C as much warmer air begins building in for the weekend.

More Warm Weather This Weekend And Beyond

Heading into the weekend, temperatures will soar again as the large-scale northwesterly flow that was in place shifts to be a more zonal, westerly flow, replacing cooler air with more mild, Pacific-sourced weather.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook valid November 17 to November 24, issued 12Z November 9, 2015 — The NAEFS continues to forecast above-normal temperatures for Manitoba in the 8-14 day time range.

Generally speaking, daytime highs should climb into the upper single digits for both Saturday and Sunday which, while not sounding particularly warm, will be anywhere from 7–10°C above normal for this time of year.

Another low pressure system will work its way into southern Manitoba early next week, and while most of the precipitation looks like it will remain well north of the Red River Valley, the pattern does look like we may once again see the return of low cloud, drizzle and fog. It’s too early to tell, but just in case, you’d better get out there and enjoy the sun this weekend before it gets covered up again!

Turning Cloudy Again

November 9, 2015November 8, 2015 Scott Leave a comment

We’ll have one more sunny day before conditions turn cloudy again. A low pressure system moving up from the United States will bring another round of dreary, wet weather.

Today will be quite nice in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be near 10C under mainly sunny skies and light winds. The normal high for this time of year is only 1C, so conditions today are well above seasonal. Enjoy it, this may be one of the last nice days of the year!

A low pressure system moving up from the United States will bring warm weather on Monday, but cloudy weather for Tuesday and Wednesday

Tuesday will see the return of dreary, wet weather. A low pressure system moving up from the US will spread showery weather over southern Manitoba. Accumulations will be very light, but the cloudy, wet conditions won’t make for a very nice day. Winds will be from the north at 20km/h.

Wednesday will see a continuation of Tuesday’s grey weather. However, instead of just rain, we may see some snow mixed in as well. No accumulations are expected, but the white stuff is never a welcome sight at this time of year. Winds will be north-westerly at 20-30km/h with temperatures in the low single digits.

Long Range

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast issued 12Z November 8, 2015

Long range models, such as the NAEFS pictured above, continue to strongly suggest that above-seasonal weather will last for most of November. Given the strength of El Nino this winter, expect to continue hearing a lot more about warmer than normal weather in the long range!

One More Day of Showers, Then Sunshine!

November 6, 2015November 6, 2015 Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg and the Red River Valley will see one more day of wet weather before a shift in the large-scale pattern finally returns some sunshine to the region. The initial cost will be some cool weather, but a decent blast of warmer weather should move in for Sunday!

The nearly 2 weeks of cloudy weather will continue today thanks to another disturbance rippling through the region in the northwest flow that has set up over the region. Rainfall will be fairly light today, coming from scattered showers beginning mid-day and lasting through the afternoon rather than any organized, large area of rain. Alongside the rain will be west to northwesterly winds in the 15–25km/h range with perhaps a bit of gustiness on top of that through the afternoon hours.

Winds will shift to be more westerly tonight, leading to a cooler overnight low than we’ve seen lately; the more westerly component to the wind will mitigate the warming effect the lakes can have on us at this time of year and allow cooler air to push into the Red River Valley. Thanks to that, temperatures will drop to around the –2°C mark tonight under mostly cloudy skies.

Sun Reappears Saturday

Saturday will bring an end to the persistent cloud that has blanketed the region for nearly two weeks as the dominant flow shifts to be more southwesterly, bringing drier air through the low-levels into Southern Manitoba. There will likely be a fair amount of cloud in the Red River Valley in the morning, but the winds will pick up to 20–30km/h through the morning and the cloud cover should push out of the region through the afternoon, leaving us with a sunny end of the day. There’s uncertainty as to exactly how long the cloud will stick around on Saturday; models tend to be too quick on moving cloud out of the Red River Valley, but it seems a safe bet that by the end of the afternoon, the sun will be shining.

Some of the clearing will be facilitated by a ridge of high pressure moving through the region; thanks to that, our daytime high will be limited to just a couple degrees above freezing. Fortunately, a warm front will push through overnight and keep overnight lows seasonably mild and near the freezing mark.

GDPS Surface Winds & Pressure for Sunday November 8, 2015 — The GDPS is forecasting a low pressure system to track across the Central Prairies on Sunday, bringing milder weather to southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Sunday will be a beautiful day. With Winnipeg & the Red River Valley firmly entrenched in the warm sector of the low pressure system passing to our north, temperatures will climb to around the 10°C mark with winds out of the south at around 20km/h. There really won’t be anything to complain about!

Pleasant Weather to Start Next Week; Chance of Snow Mid-Week

The pleasant weather will persist into the beginning of next week with seasonal to slightly above-seasonal temperatures continuing and no precipitation expected. A mid-week cool down is possible, though, and with it may come the first snowfall of the season for Winnipeg; at this point we’ll just have to wait and see how things develop.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast issued 00Z November 6, 2015

In the long-range, the broken record continues and generally warmer-than-seasonal temperatures are expected. As the NAEFS shows in the image above, for the 8–14 day forecast range—the end of next week into the week after it—there’s a very high likelihood of above-seasonal temperatures. This doesn’t mean that the temperatures will consistently be above seasonal and cold weather isn’t possible; rather that, overall, conditions will average out to warmer than seasonal.

Given that November has been off to far worse starts than the green grass and late-season golfing of this year, other than the lack of sunshine[1] one can’t really complain too much! Unless you really like the cold and snow.

Enjoy the weekend and we’ll be back bright and early Monday morning with your forecast to start off next week!

The persistent cloud cover has also been partly responsible for the continued warmth in the region, so there’s that… ↩