Japan Faced with Severe Flooding

Matthieu Leave a comment

The worst flooding that some parts of Japan have seen in decades occurred this past week as a tropical storm brought tropical, moisture-laden air to the country.

[map autofit=”1″ disable_scrollwheel=”1″] [pin]Sendai[/pin] [pin tooltip=”Ikari”]Ikari Nikko, Tochigi Prefecture 321-2806[/pin] [pin]Nikko[/pin] [pin]Kanuma[/pin] [pin]Tokyo[/pin] [pin tooltip=”Joso”]Joso, Japan[/pin] [/map]

Tropical storm Etau had the worst impact on Japan’s biggest island, Honshu. Here heavy rain bands were set up for over 24 hours in the area and rainfall totals were further enhanced by local topography. Unstable terrain leading to mudslides also grew to be a concern as heavy rain fell and the ground became saturated. By the end of this past week, when the rain was all said and done, some villages in central and southern Honshu had rainfall totals near 700mm, with some 24 hour totals topping 500mm. It’s to note that the average monthly rainfall for September in Tokyo is less than a third of that (181mm). Here are a few of the notable rainfall amounts (provided by weather.com) :

  • Ikari 551*mm* in 24 hours.
  • Nikko 668*mm* rainfall total.
  • Kanuma 444*mm* in 24 hours, which is more than double the previous 24 hour record for the city (record 212*mm* in 2002).
  • Sendai central business district 269*mm* 24 hour total
Levees of the Kinugawa River breached in Joso from the heavy rains. (Source: AFP/via TWC)
Levees of the Kinugawa River breached in Joso from the heavy rains. (Source: AFP/via TWC)

What resulted from these very high rainfall amounts was historic flooding, mainly north and northeast of Tokyo. Over 13,500 buildings were reported to be completely flooded out by officials in result of the heavy rain falling as well as some levees being breached north of Tokyo. In total 3 people have been confirmed to have died from this rainfall event and 23 are still missing; mostly from landslides. It was reported that 185,000 were forced to leave their homes, while over two million more were advised that they should leave by authorities. It’s not possible to assign a dollar amount to the damages yet but authorities speculate it will at least be in the hundreds of millions.

Flooding in the city of Joso, where floodwaters nearly reached the second story of homes. (Source: CNN)
Flooding in the city of Joso, where floodwaters nearly reached the second story of homes. (Source: CNN)

A few showers are expected this weekend in the Tokyo area but nothing close to the magnitude of what seen this past week.

A Brief Return to Summer

Brad Leave a comment

A very cool start today with temperatures in the low single digits will be the last of the near-freezing temperatures we’ll see for a while thanks to a push of warmer air spreading eastwards across the Prairies that will bring summer-like warmth back to the region. The warmer weather will be a welcome sight to many after a week that has seen distinctly fall-like weather and gloomy cloud.

All in all, there isn’t much to talk about on the weather front for the coming days. Today will start off quite cool and see the temperature gradually rise to around 19°C. There may be some fog patches around this morning, but they should burn off fairly quickly after the sun rises. Winds will be fairly light and other than some afternoon clouds bringing mixed skies, there won’t be much going on in the Red River Valley. Temperatures drop to around 10°C under clearing skies tonight.

Tomorrow will see warmer weather begin to work into Southern Manitoba as a flow of warmer air pushes in from the west. Winds out of the south at around 20km/h will mark the arrival of the warmer weather, sending daytime highs to around the 23°C mark across the region under mainly sunny skies. Our overnight low will be considerably warmer tomorrow night at around 13°C.

Forecast 850mb Temperatures valid Saturday Morning from the NAM
Westerly winds at 850mb – approximately 1.5km above the ground – will be ushering warmer temperatures to Manitoba for the weekend. This image shows warm advection over Manitoba on Saturday morning from the NAM forecast model.

Sunday will the the warmest day of the next few with a high around 26°C under mainly sunny skies. The winds will be a bit more notable, strengthening out of the south to around 30km/h with some gustiness possible on top of that. Overall, though, it will be a very pleasant day. Expect an overnight low just a tad cooler than Saturday at around 11°C.

Cooler Start to Next Week

A weak cool front slumping southwards on Sunday night looks to stall over extreme southern Manitoba on Monday, bringing a bit more cloud cover and cooler daytime highs through the first half of the week. Precipitation looks fairly minimal for areas along and south of the Trans-Canada highway, but a more organized chance for precipitation appears to develop for the northern Parkland & Interlake into Central Manitoba as a low pressure system develops and lifts northeastwards mid-week. This should once again bring warmer weather back to the Red River Valley.

A Hint of Fall

Brad Leave a comment

The weather through the second half of the week will have a distinctly fall-like feel to it as a building ridge of high pressure over the Prairies brings cooler weather to Southern Manitoba with daytime highs in the upper teens and overnight lows in the single digits.

Thanks to a high pressure system building in from the Arctic, temperatures will be fairly cool over the coming few days with daytime highs around 18°C and overnight lows in the mid-to-upper single digits. Winds will be out of the northwest at around 20km/h today and tomorrow, however swing around to the south for Friday.

The only real notable weather will be tonight. With very cool air pushing into Southern Manitoba[1], lake-effect cloudy and precipitation will likely develop overnight into Thursday morning. Showers or drizzle are possible in the lee of the lakes beginning late in the evening tonight until mid-morning on Thursday. Even if the precipitation doesn’t occur, some cloudiness is a certainty, so expect cloudy or mixed skies on Thursday morning with a clearing trend into the afternoon.

The RDPS forecast model is picking up on the potential for lake-effect precipitation overnight into Thursday morning, shown here by the trails of precipitation accumulation in the lee of hte lakes over Manitoba.
The RDPS forecast model is picking up on the potential for lake-effect precipitation overnight into Thursday morning, shown here by the trails of precipitation accumulation in the lee of hte lakes over Manitoba.

Otherwise, the weather will be quite benign for the remainder of the work week.

Long Range Outlook

Looking ahead to the weekend, it looks like warmer weather will begin to return to the region. Daytime highs will climb back into the mid–20’s with breezy southerly winds on Saturday. Sunday will feature a high in the mid–20’s again with strong southerly winds ahead of a developing low pressure system. There looks to be a slight chance for some rain on Sunday evening/overnight into Monday, however the odds look slim at this point.

All in all the weather will be fairly nice for the coming 5 days, so enjoy it; just remember to begin packing a jacket or sweater for the evenings!

  1. 850mb temperatures tonight are forecast to fall to around 3°C.  ↩

Cooler Week Ahead

Scott Leave a comment

This week will be significantly cooler than last week as we see cooler air filter down from the north. However, temperatures will remain at, or slightly above, seasonal values.

Monday

Today will see temperatures in the low to mid twenties under a mixture of sun and cloud. There may be a few showers throughout the day as we remain behind a departing low pressure system. Winds will be breezy from the south-west.

Tuesday

Tuesday will be a mainly cloudy day with a strong likelihood of showers. Despite the departure of Monday’s low pressure system, a large upper disturbance will remain to our north, helping to generate additional precipitation. Accumulations from these showers isn’t expected to be large, but the chance for more rain is definitely not welcome in most of southern Manitoba.

RDPS 500mb Heights & Vorticity for Tuesday Morning
Shown here by the RDPS 500mb forecast, a large upper-level low will impact much of Manitoba on Tuesday.

Wednesday

Wednesday will see very similar conditions to Tuesday. There will once again be a strong chance of rain, with accumulations perhaps a bit higher than Tuesday. This round of rainfall will be the result of a new system moving up from the northern United States.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests we’ll generally see near seasonal conditions over the next week, which means high temperatures near 20C. At this point long range models suggest we may turn toward cooler conditions by mid-month, but it’s too early to tell if that will come to fruition.