Say it Ain’t Snow

Snow will make a late-season appearance this week, an unwelcome surprise in what has generally been a very pleasant March.

Significant snowfall will be possible by the middle of this week as a low pressure system moves into the region
Significant snowfall will be possible by the middle of this week as a low pressure system moves into the region

Monday

Monday
3°C / 0°C
Flurries ending

Today will see some light snow tapering off in the morning as a system from overnight exits the region. Thankfully, temperatures will rise above zero by this afternoon, which should melt most of the snow that fell last night and this morning. Once the snow ends skies are expected to remain mainly cloudy and but winds will remain light.

Tuesday

Tuesday
6°C / 1°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of showers

Tuesday looks to be warmest day this week as we sit in the warm sector of the winter storm that will bring us snow on Wednesday. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper single digits, which should help to eliminate any of Monday’s snow that was yet to melt. There may be a few stray showers throughout the day, but otherwise no significant precipitation is expected. The main event will arrive overnight…

Wednesday

Wednesday
2°C / -12°C
Snow

The much-discussed winter storm will arrive on Wednesday. It will not be a particularly powerful storm by any measure, but that won’t stop it from producing significant snowfall in some areas. Currently, it appears that Winnipeg and the Red River Valley is in line for 5-10 cm from this system. Areas further west, particularly in higher elevations and upslope terrain, could see closer to 30 cm. However, it is still too early to place a large amount of confidence in these predictions. As we get closer to Wednesday, more accurate snowfall forecasts will become available.

Long Range

Following the departure of Wednesday’s storm we’ll see temperatures drop back down to below seasonal values to end the week. Models suggest that we’ll continue to be caught between a trough to the east and a ridge to the west, meaning we’ll see frequent oscillations between slightly above and slightly below normal conditions. Until this pattern shifts our weather will continue to be a bit of a roller-coaster.

Elsewhere in Weather News: March 21st, 2015

Maritimes Experience a Winter to Remember

With spring now in place Maritime residents would expect to see more forgiving weather than they have been experiencing this past winter. However, this has not been the case this past week. The East Coast has been hit with another strong coastal storm that brought blizzard conditions and large amounts of snow Tuesday-Wednesday. A fairly deep low pressure system was anchored just off the coast and drew in some cold air in behind – conditions right for a blizzard.

[map autofit=”1″ disable_scrollwheel=”1″] [pin]Halifax, NS[/pin] [pin]Saint John, NB[/pin] [/map]

Halifax was especially hit hard by this storm with a general 35cm falling in the city, with some higher amounts reported. These combined with winds that gusted up to 113km/h to create blizzard conditions. Schools, businesses and government offices were forced to shut down and no public transit was running. Currently, Halifax has a whopping 93cm of snow on the ground which almost doubles the old record of snow on ground of 51cm in 1967 for today (records for snow on ground have been kept since 1955 in Halifax). Saint John, NB even had more snow than that on the ground after the storm – 169cm of snow was on the ground Thursday.

Sidewalks in Halifax are getting quite narrow after the most recent snowstorm. (Source: Twitter/@HadynWatters)
Sidewalks in Halifax are getting quite narrow after the most recent snowstorm. (Source: Twitter/@HadynWatters)

Unfortunately, yet another system is set to affect the Atlantic Provinces as another strong trough makes its way towards the East Coast. The storm will really ramp up later this afternoon – numerous types of precipitation will be in play, with mostly rain near the shoreline, transitioning to mixed types and finally heavy snow as you head further inland. The highest snowfall amounts are expected to be around 40-50cm where it will be all snow, and as much as 20mm of rain could fall in Halifax. City crews have begun clearing city drains to limit the flooding that could take place if most precipitation falls as rain in Halifax.

In other news, Australia has been hit with another strong cyclone this week. The cyclone had a fairly small inner core, but still managed to bring winds of up to 170km/h near Cooktown and a decent storm surge to the coast. Thankfully no injuries were reported with the storm and it is currently in the dissipating stage over northern Australia.

Cold Snap for the Weekend

Friday afternoon 850mb temperature forecast (RDPS)
Cooler weather is on the way for the weekend as a significant pool of Arctic air grazes Southern Manitoba.

Much cooler temperatures are on the way for the weekend – especially overnight lows – as a push of Arctic air slumps southwards behind the cold front that passed through Southern Manitoba last night. The result will be below normal daytime highs and some exceptionally cold nights for mid-March.

Friday
-2°C / -19°C
Mostly cloudy; slight chance of morning flurries

Saturday
-5°C / -12°C
Partly cloudy

Sunday
-2°C / -10°C
Increasing cloud

Today will be a mostly cloudy day with some sunny breaks this afternoon, however the main weather for the day will be the brisk northerly winds to 30–40km/h that pick up through the day. These winds will be ushering in significantly cooler air for this evening. Fortunately, temperatures will be able to recover a little bit today before the colder air pushes in with high temperatures reaching a slightly below-normal[1] –2°C. Unfortunately, the cold air slams into the Red River Valley tonight. Temperatures will drop to around –19°C overnight.

Saturday and Sunday look fairly quiet weather-wise. After a very cold start to the morning, temperatures on Saturday should climb to around –5°C under partly cloudy skies. This high will be around 6°C below normal. Temperatures will dip just below –10°C on Saturday night and then climb back up to –2°C or so on Sunday afternoon. Sunday looks to start fairly sunny but see increasing cloudiness through the day as a disturbance slips across southwestern Manitoba.

Seasonal Weather Returns Next Week

Seasonal highs anywhere from 0 to +4°C will return for the start of next week. Conditions look fairly dry, however early indications point to a system moving through Southern Manitoba mid-week that could bring some rain (or less likely, snow) to the area.


  1. Normal daytime highs for this time of year are around +1°C.  ↩

Shot of Cold Air Incoming

The mild, dry weather we’ve experienced over the past week and a half continues for a couple more days before a powerful cold front sweeps through Southern Manitoba on Thursday night, bringing much colder temperatures to the region. Fortunately, the cool-down is expected to be short-lived with temperatures returning to seasonal values by the end of the weekend.

Wednesday
7°C / -3°C
Mainly sunny

Thursday
8°C / -8°C
Partly cloudy

Friday
-4°C / -15°C
Mainly sunny & breezy

Today will be another beautiful day with a high near 7 or 8°C, light winds and just a bit of cloudiness. Temperatures will drop to around –3°C tonight with light southerlies and mainly clear skies. Tomorrow looks quite nice as well with partly cloudy skies and a high near 8°C. Unfortunately, a big change is swinging through on Thursday night.

A potent cold front will swing through Winnipeg & the Red River Valley overnight Thursday, bringing with it a chance for some flurries and much cooler air. Winds won’t be too bad through Thursday night, perhaps to around 20km/h or so. Expect a low somewhere in the –8 to –10°C range.

Much cooler weather will persist through Friday and Saturday. Friday will be quite an unpleasant day as northerlies strengthen through the day to around 30–40km/h by late afternoon. The temperature will only climb to around –4°C for a high which will make it the coldest day since March 6th when the mercury topped out at +0.8°C. Temperatures will plummet into the mid-minus teens on Friday night as those strong northerlies really tap into the colder Arctic air plunging southwards.

Cool, Dry Weekend Ahead

This coming weekend will be dry and generally cool as a ridge of Arctic high pressure dominates the weather over the Red River Valley. Saturday will see highs near –6°C or so while the high on Sunday manages to climb back up towards the 0°C mark.

Record Snow Pack Loss

As of Sunday (March 15th, 2015), Winnipeg’s snow pack officially fell to 0cm. This was thanks to a dramatic melt that took much of Southern Manitoba from snow-covered to bare ground in just a few days thanks to a surge of record-setting warm air.[1]

MODIS imagery revealing significant snow pack melt in Southern Manitoba
MODIS satellite imagery reveals the dramatic melting of the snow pack over much of Southern Manitoba in under a week.

A snow depth of 0cm on March 15th ties for the 3rd earliest snow melt on record since 1955, trailing 2012 by just one day:

Top 11 Earliest Snow Melts (1955 – Present)
Rank Date of 0cm Snow Depth Year(s)
1 February 28 2000
2 March 14 2012
3 March 15 1995, 2015
5 March 17 1981
6 March 18 1973, 2010
8 March 21 1994, 1999
10 March 26 1961, 1984

The early melt was icing on the cake for Winnipeggers wary of a repeat of the never-ending winter of 2013/14. The winter of 2014/15 was effectively 4 months long – from mid-November to mid-March – of which 2 months of it was unseasonably mild. Not bad at all.


  1. On Saturday March 14th, 9 communities in Manitoba set record highs: Winnipeg, Portage la Prairie, Gretna, Dauphin, Brandon, Melita, Pilot Mound, Pinawa, and Sprague.  ↩