Cooling Down a Bit

This week will see somewhat cooler conditions than what we experienced on the weekend, but temperatures will remain above-seasonal nonetheless.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler this week as cooler air floods in from the north
Temperatures will be a bit cooler this week as cooler air floods in from the north

Monday

Monday
3°C / -3°C
Mainly cloudy

Today will be mainly cloudy as extensive upper cloud moves through southern Manitoba. Some precipitation will pass to our south early in the day, potentially giving us a light shower or flurry. Temperatures will certainly be cooler than the record “heat” of Sunday, but with highs in the low single digits, conditions will still be above-seasonal. A chilly north wind will be responsible for ushering in these cooler conditions and also add a slight wind chill factor throughout the day.

Tuesday

Tuesday
2°C / -5°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Tuesday will be similar to Monday temperature-wise, but it should be a sunnier day. Skies will be a mix of sun and cloud with breezy north-west winds. A light shower or flurry will be possible due to some low-level instability developing, but any accumulations will be small.

Wednesday

Wednesday
4°C / -6°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Wednesday will once again see temperatures in the low single digits under a mixture of sun and cloud. There is a slight chance of a shower or flurry again, though the chance will be lower than on Tuesday. Winds will be light and from the south.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests we should see generally above-seasonal conditions for the rest of the month. Now that our snow cover is gone the ground can effectively absorb solar radiation, converting it to sensible heat. As the ground dries out this process will become even more efficient. Our normal temperatures will gradually increase over the next few weeks, meaning that above-seasonal weather today will become more normal by month’s end. There is no sign of any significant precipitation in the forecast at this time, so flooding should remain minimal in the Red River Valley this spring.

Elsewhere in Weather News: March 14th, 2015

Powerful Cyclone Strikes Pacific Islands

The strongest Pacific cyclone of 2015, Pam, struck the small island nation of Vanuatu located in the South Pacific this past week and brought with it extreme conditions as it topped the cyclone scale at a category five storm.

[map autofit=”1″ disable_scrollwheel=”1″] [pin]Port Vila[/pin] [pin tooltip=”Where Pam formed”]-7.092716, 169.442139[/pin] [/map]

The cyclone developed about 1,000km northwest of Fiji last weekend as an area of thunderstorms organized under ideal conditions – sea surface temperatures were very high in the region, as high as 31°C, and shear was minimal. Pam continued to organize early this week. It struggled as it ingested some dry air into its core while heading towards Vanuatu but by Thursday morning it formed a large eyewall that was fairly symmetric. This meant that it had fought off the dry air and was intensifying rapidly. Peak strength was reached several hours before it reached the Vanuatu Islands, winds were sustained at 270km/h, gusting over 300km/h, and pressure bottomed out at extremely low values estimated by satellites to be around 890mb. Early Friday morning the storm’s eye passed very close to several of Vanuatu’s islands making it a worst case scenario situation. The islands were battered with 250km/h winds, storm surges of 6-8m and extremely heavy rainfall.

Typical buzz-saw appearance of a category five cyclone seen as Pam approached Vanuatu and was near peak strength. (Source: NOAA)
Typical buzz-saw appearance of a category five cyclone seen as Pam approached Vanuatu and was near peak strength. (Source: NOAA)

As of Friday evening rescue efforts were still underway while searchers made their way into remote regions that were completely isolated from the storm. Overall the infrastructure on the islands is not the best, with some houses simply made out of mud resulting in more damage than you’d typically see in a developed country. The largest city, Port Vila, was reported to be out of power and running water and had debris scattered across roads making travel difficult. There are unconfirmed reports of numerous deaths associated with this storm, but they have not been confirmed yet.

 

Damage seen on Friday evening (our time) as Pam was on its way out. (Source: UNICEF Pacific)
Damage seen on Friday evening (our time) as Pam was on its way out. (Source: UNICEF Pacific)

After Pam has finished its swipe through the Vanuatu islands, it is not expected have any other significant effect on any other island nations as it heads Poleward where it will weaken. The Pacific/Eastern Indian oceans have been extremely active this week, not only because of Pam, but there have been three other cyclones that were active at one time this week. Two of these made landfall on Australian soils (category three and category two), with minimal damage reported. With that said, there are no other areas of interest for possible formation of other cyclones as of Friday night.

Warm Weekend Ahead for Winnipeg

Winnipeg & the Rest of Southern Manitoba will see a beautiful weekend ahead thanks to a powerful low pressure system set to track through the Arctic, drawing warmer air northwards into the Prairies. The result will be a dry weekend with temperatures soaring well above normal with a fair amount of sunshine to enjoy. The pleasant March weather continues!

RDPS Surface Temperature – 21Z March 15, 2015
The RDPS clearly shows a powerful low pressure system moving north of 60° with a broad frontal system pulling warmer air northwards into the Prairies.

Today will be the coolest day of the next few with a high temperature near 5°C. Skies will start off cloudy but should clear out as the day progresses. Winds will be out of the northwest to 20-30km/h. Expect temperatures down to around -1°C overnight.

Friday
5°C / -1°C
Clearing

Saturday
9°C / 5°C
Mainly cloudy

Sunday
12°C / 0°C
Partly cloudy

Saturday will a transition day as the warm front moves through Southern Manitoba. It will be warmer than Friday, but accompanying those warmer temperatures will be gusty southerly winds to around 40km/h. Skies will be mainly cloudy as temperatures climb to 9°C with no chance for precipitation. With warmer weather moving in, overnight lows will be quite mild near 5°C.

Sunday will be a gorgeous day. Any remnant cloud from Saturday’s warm front will clear out by the end of the morning and we’ll be left with mainly sunny skies with high temperatures climbing into the low teens. Winds will be relatively calm until later in the day when winds will pick up out of the northwest to around 30km/h. Cooler temperatures will move in bringing overnight lows back towards the 0°C mark.

Next week continues to bring mild weather with no signs of any potential precipitation until the end of the week. With much of our snow likely gone by the end of the weekend – and the snowpack pretty much gone in North Dakota – it’s a fairly safe bet to say that spring has arrived in full!

Warmer-than-Seasonal Temperatures Continue

Although the second half of the week will see cooler temperatures than have been in place over the past 5 days, daytime highs will nonetheless still remain above the seasonal values near -2°C. Perhaps one of the biggest differences over the next few days will be that it will be significantly cloudier than seen over the past several days which will likely slow down the melting a little bit. Highs near or above 0°C will continue to keep the City of Winnipeg a slushy, sloppy mess, so don’t put away that spare bottle of windshield washer fluid yet!

A low pressure system developing in Alberta & forecast to track eastwards across the Prairies will bring continued warm weather alongside plenty of cloud.
A low pressure system developing in Alberta & forecast to track eastwards across the Prairies will bring continued warm weather alongside plenty of cloud.

Today will be a mostly cloudy day in Winnipeg with a chance for some non-accumulating light flurries as a weak warm front(fn) slides northeastwards through the region. After the passage of the front, there may be a rogue sunny break, but overall skies should remain mostly cloudy as temperatures climb to near +1°C with an easterly breeze. Cloud cover will thicken up tonight as the main support for the advancing low from Alberta begins pushing towards our region. Skies will be overcast tonight with temperatures remaining steady near 0°C.

Wednesday
+1°C / ⇒ 0°C
Mainly cloudy with a chance of morning flurries

Thursday
5°C / -1°C
Cloudy; chance of evening showers or flurries

Friday
3°C / -2°C
Mainly cloudy

Thursday will be an overcast day through the Red River Valley with light winds as a low pressure system tracks right across the region. Temperatures will be warmer – highs should be near 5°C – and no precipitation is expected through much of the day. Heading into the evening, a chance for some showers or flurries will spread into the Red River Valley alongside northwesterly winds to 20-30km/h behind the passage of a trough. The chance for some flurries will persist through the overnight period as temperatures drop to around -2°C.

Friday will be another mainly cloudy day. A few light flurries may linger into the morning hours, but in general most of the day will see no precipitation. Highs will climb to near +3°C with a chance for some sunny breaks in the afternoon. Skies will clear through the evening as we head to a low near -2 or -3°C.

Near-Seasonal In The Long-Range

This weekend looks to bring another surge of warmth to Southern Manitoba on Sunday that will push daytime highs into the upper single-digits, but looking further than that, near-seasonal temperatures are expected. This translates to daytime highs around the 0°C mark or so. The odd day here or there of slightly warmer-than-normal is possible, but all in all it appears that Winnipeg will be transitioning into a fairly dry, seasonal March pattern next week.

Fortunately, with daytime highs above 0°C many days and little snow expected, the erosion of the snowpack in the Red River Valley will continue over the coming week. With little snow expected, many regions in the valley could see snow-free conditions by the end of the weekend. This is particularly significant as areas of snow-free ground will warm up significantly more than snow-covered ground. As we head into the coming weeks and warmer and warmer air begins moving in, it won’t be uncommon to see 10°C temperature differences over short distances based solely on snow-cover.

After the bone-chilling February experienced in Winnipeg, there are no complaints to be had with how March has unfolded so far and looks to continue!