State of the Climate: Meteorological Winter 2014-15

Daily temperature anomalies this winter (source)
Daily temperature anomalies this winter (source)

This winter has been much easier to handle compared to last year. Despite frigid conditions returning in February, meteorological winter 2014-2015 still averaged close to normal thanks to warm conditions in December and January. The 3-month period averaged -14.3°C, just 0.2°C above normal. This is 6.0°C warmer than last winter!

Meteorological winter rankings for Winnipeg
Category Winter 2014-15 Total/Avg. Rank (Since 1872–73)
High Temp. –9.5°C Tied 42nd Warmest
Mean Temp. –14.3°C Tied 33rd Warmest
Low Temp. –19.0°C Tied 35th Warmest
Rainfall 1.2 mm (est.) 48th Rainiest
Snowfall ~ 43 cm 28th Least
Precipitation ~ 31 mm 9th Driest

Mild & Lack of Snow in December and January

December was the warmest month of the winter, averaging -10.0°C. This was 3.5°C above normal and a whopping 10.9°C warmer than in 2013. Many people would probably remember December for its gloominess however. Several consecutive days of cloud, fog and freezing drizzle occurred. In fact, freezing drizzle fell on 7 days. The cloud kept our daytime highs cooler than they could have been, but helped keep us warm at night. In fact, 3 daily high minimum records were broken. Most notable was a low of -0.5°C on December 12 which broke the old record of -3.9°C back in 1877, Winnipeg’s warmest December on record. Sunshine made more of an appearance in southwestern Manitoba where highs well above zero occurred. Even a few double digit highs were recorded close to the US border. For instance, Deloraine reached 10.3°C on December 11.

There was also a lack of snow in December. Just 7.2 cm fell in Winnipeg, the 16th least snowiest December since 1872. In addition, snow depth never rose above 10 cm. Some areas close the US border even experienced a brown Christmas. The photo below is from Emerson on Christmas Eve morning.

Emerson on Christmas Eve morning
Emerson on Christmas Eve morning

After a cold snap to start 2015, the warmth returned mid January. Temperatures exceeded the freezing mark, nights were unusually mild and what little snow there was on the ground was melting. In the end, January finished 2.7°C above normal, tying with 2010 for 19th warmest. Thanks to melting, snow depth was just 12 cm at the end of the month, the 12th thinnest snow pack at the end of January since 1941.

In total, 11 days in December and January exceeded the freezing mark in Winnipeg, above the normal of 7 days.

February Cold Snap

Winter made its presence well known in February. The month was awfully reminiscent of last year with seemingly endless colder than normal conditions. The month averaged -19.2°C, 5.7°C below normal and the 27th coldest February since 1873. 21 days dipped below -20°C, above the normal of 14 days. The monthly high was a measly -3.1°C. In fact, only 6 days rose above -10°C, tied 10th least since 1873. This February was the 10th colder than normal February in the last 11 years. Since 2005, only 2012 had a warmer than normal February.

Lack of Snow This Winter

Approximately 43 cm of snow fell from December to February (exact amount to be confirmed), about 19 cm below normal. Even more unusual, only approximately 31 mm of precipitation fell making it the 9th driest meteorological winter since the winter of 1872/1873. Now in March, snow depth only sits around 20 cm in Winnipeg.

A Look Back at 2014

I will end this post with a quick look back at the cold year that was 2014. The year averaged 1.2°C, 1.7°C below normal. In fact, it was the coldest year since 1996. Although it was only tied 28th coldest since 1873, it was the 9th coldest in the last century. This was in large part thanks to the very cold winter and spring we experienced.

Monthly & year-to-date temperature deviations for 2014 in Winnipeg, MB
Monthly & year-to-date temperature deviations for 2014 in Winnipeg, MB

As for precipitation, 2014 was slightly drier than normal in some parts of the city and wetter than normal in others. Approximately just less than 500 mm of rain fell officially at the airport, slightly below the normal of 527 mm. It was wetter in southern and southwestern parts of the city where heavy thunderstorms dumped locally flooding rains in the summer. Well over 400 mm of rain fell in these locations. At my place in South St. Vital I recorded 450.0 mm of rain and 550.6 mm of precipitation.

Monthly & year-to-date precipitation amounts for 2014 in Winnipeg, MB
Monthly & year-to-date precipitation amounts for 2014 in Winnipeg, MB. Data combined from the James Richardson International Airport and The Forks.
Overall, snowfall was close to normal with 118.4 cm (normal is 117.3 cm). Nearly 80% of this fell from January to April. As mentioned already, there was a notable lack of snow in December.


Note: Unless otherwise noted, all normals stated in this post are the 1981-2010 normals. I use the normals that I have calculated which you can see anytime by following this link.

Cooling Down Again

We’ll have a warm, but windy, Monday before another arctic cold front comes through, returning below-normal temperatures to the region.

Monday will be warm and windy as strong southerlies develop
Monday will be warm and windy as strong southerlies develop
Monday
-6°C / -18°C
Mainly sunny

Today will be warm, but windy as a strong southerly flow develops ahead of a cold front. Wind speeds will be 40km/h gusting to 60km/h, making it feel significantly colder than it will actually be. High temperatures in the mid to upper minus single digits will end up feeling more like -15 to -20 when you factor in the wind.

Tuesday
-16°C / -24°C
Mainly cloudy with flurries

An arctic cold front will move through early on Tuesday, ushering in colder weather once again. As the cold front goes through we’ll also see some flurries, but accumulations will be small. Wind speeds will really pick up in association with this front, with north-west winds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h for much of the day. This will send wind chill values close to -30.

Wednesday
-21°C / -28°C
Mix of sun and cloud with chance of flurries

Wednesday will be even colder than Tuesday as arctic air becomes entrenched in southern Manitoba. High temperatures will be near -20, with the wind chill making it feel more like the -30s. We may also see some light flurries throughout the day as the low-levels of the atmosphere become unstable.

Long Range

Long range models suggest we’ll begin to see more frequent warm weather by next weekend. This will be the result of a western ridge extending further east into Manitoba. That doesn’t mean all the snow is suddenly going to disappear, but it will certainly be more pleasant. March 1 was the beginning of meteorological spring, so it’s just a matter of time before spring actually arrives!

Elsewhere in Weather News: February 28th, 2015

Middle East Sees Snow and Associated Avalanche Danger

This past week the Middle East saw some interesting weather associated with a slow-moving low pressure system that made its way all the way from Turkey to northern India.

[map autofit=”1″ disable_scrollwheel=”1″] [pin tooltip=”Istanbul”]41.005270, 28.97696[/pin] [pin tooltip=”Panjshir”]35.335047, 69.716778[/pin] [/map]

The system first impacted Istanbul, Turkey last week which significantly affected travel across the city as it dropped significant amounts of snow. Most of the precipitation in the region came as rainfall ahead of the low pressure system, but cold air wrapped around on the back side of the system resulted in snow squalls developing off the warm waters of the Black Sea. These snow squalls that formed dropped anywhere from 5 to 20cm, and even locally higher amounts in eastern Istanbul. With the snow that fell earlier in the week, in addition to the fresh snow, one part of the eastern township of Istanbul was able to break its snowfall depth record by recording a snow depth record of 75cm. In other parts of Istanbul depths generally ranged from 20 to 40cm. As many as 200 flights were cancelled as a result of the snow and numerous trees could be seen snapped across the city.

Radar image of strong snow  squalls coming off the Black Sea last week.
Radar image of strong snow squalls coming off the Black Sea last week.

Weather in Istanbul is expected to remain above the freezing mark for the weekend, thus the melt that has been ongoing late this past week will continue. Although it’s not unheard of to get snow in the winter in Istanbul, the average snow depth usually remains below 10cm for the winter months. No more snowfall is expected in the next week or so for the city.

The storm slowly continued its trek east dropping more snow and mixed precipitation in Middle East countries such as Israel and Jordan before reaching Afghanistan. Afghanistan and northern India saw major snowfall as a result of this system, especially at higher elevations. As much as 100cm fell in northeast Afghanistan, enhanced by local topography. Several avalanches were also triggered in the region of Panjshir and buried over 100 houses that were located on a mountainside, leading to the deaths of over 200 hundred residents sadly. The northeast part of Afghanistan is a fairly poor region of the country with houses built in dangerous locations that are prone to avalanches and landslides – deadly avalanches are not unheard of and have last occurred in 2012.

Icy Grip of Winter Loosening

Temperatures will be on their way up over the next few days as the coldest air slides off to our east allowing temperatures to finally rebound to more pleasant levels. No significant snow is expected, either, so it looks like Winnipeg will actually have a fairly nice weekend coming up!

Friday
-11°C / -22°C
Mainly sunny
Saturday
-11°C / -18°C
Partly cloudy
Sunday
-6°C / -15°C
Morning cloud with a chance of flurries

The next two days will be near carbon-copies of each other as a ridge of high pressure lingers through Southern Manitoba. Both days will feature mainly sunny skies, relatively light winds and highs near –11°C. Tonight’s low will be near –22°C and Saturday night’s low will be moderated somewhat by some cloud moving in and fall to around –18°C.

Sunday looks to start the morning with mainly cloudy skies with a slight chance of some very light flurry activity as a trough of low pressure moves through. Skies will then clear through the remainder of the day as temperatures climb to a seasonal –6°C. Temperatures will drop to around –15°C on Sunday night.

The CPC 6-10 day temperature anomaly outlook shows another shot of below-normal temperatures.
The CPC 6-10 day temperature anomaly outlook shows another shot of below-normal temperatures.

Looking ahead to the long-range, it seems like we’ll see another shot of cold air bringing below-seasonal temperatures next week and then moderate towards a potentially longer stretch of more seasonal temperatures. Little precipitation is expected.