Warm-up Just Around the Corner

After a couple weeks of frigid conditions, a warm-up is on the way. However, we’ll have to deal with another couple days under an arctic air mass before warmer weather arrives.

Monday morning will be extremely cold in southern Manitoba
Monday morning will be extremely cold in southern Manitoba

Monday

Monday
-22°C / -26°C
Mainly Sunny

Today will be very cold in southern Manitoba. Morning low temperatures will be in the minus thirties, with daytime highs remaining stuck in the minus twenties. The wind will gradually pick up throughout the day, slowly adding a more significant wind chill factor. We’ll be under a strong surface high pressure system, so at least it will be sunny!

Tuesday

Tuesday
-18°C / ⇑ -15°C
Mainly Cloudy

Tuesday will be the last really cold day for awhile. Morning temperatures will be in the minus twenties, with a gusty south wind, making it feel closer to -40. Temperatures will slowly rise during the day, reaching the upper minus teens by late in the day. The wind will remain gusty though, so it will still feel pretty cold. However, temperatures will continue to rise on Tuesday night as that southerly flow brings in warmer air, setting up much nicer weather for Wednesday.

Wednesday

Wednesday
-2°C / -10°C
Mainly Cloudy

Wednesday will finally feature that long-promised warm-up. Temperatures will climb into the low-minus single digits (maybe even up to 0C in some areas). Unfortunately, it will be a cloudy day, but I’m sure most people will take the warmer conditions over a bit of sun.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to show a prolonged period of warmer weather beginning this week. The average high at this time of year is -13C, so that does not mean every day will be near the freezing mark, but most days should be in the minus single digits.

Elsewhere in Weather News: January 10th, 2015

Bushfires Rage across Southern Australia

Dangerous wildfires flared up in the tinder-dry Adelaide region of Southern Australia early this past week, forcing residents to evacuate their homes.

It is not known what started the large bushfires, but weather conditions were the primary factor as to why the wildfires were able to spread so quickly. Long-term drought which has reached severe levels in the region was the first cause for concern that bushfires were possible. This past week’s summer-like weather was what caused the risk to turn into reality as temperatures rose anywhere between the mid-30s to as high as 42.5°C in the region. These temperatures combined with strong, dry (northerly) winds blowing from central Australia was all that was needed to fuel the fires. In total, a few thousand people had to be evacuated and about 40 houses and 12,500 hectares were lost from the bushfires even though nearly 2,000 firefighters battled the flames. The good news is that no severe injuries were reported and firefighters were able to save nearly 1,000 houses in the region.

Picture taken last Sunday outside Adelaide of the bushfires. (Source: Matteo Barr // @Matteobarr)
Picture taken last Sunday outside Adelaide of the bushfires. (Source: Matteo Barr // @Matteobarr)

Since mid-week fires have been under control, mainly due to more favourable weather conditions. A trough of low pressure brought both rainfall and cooler temperatures. The bushfire season is typically most severe from December to March in Southern Australia as temperatures soar and rainfall is scarce (January average of 25mm). Weather in the Adelaide region looks to remain fairly tame as the trough of low pressure lingers and brings overcast skies with occasional showers and cooler temperatures.

Cool Weekend Leads to a Warm-Up Next Week

Cooler weather will stick around for a few more days in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley until warmer air begins working its way across the Prairies next week. Fortunately, things will feel nicer on the weekend as the gusty winds that have been around for a couple days subside into a cool but calm weekend.

The coming days will be dominated by one last big Arctic ridge moving into the region. Daytime highs will peak at –18°C today and slide towards –23 or –22°C by Sunday, with overnight lows dropping towards –30°C on Saturday night before warmer air begins making its way into the region on Sunday night. Skies will start off partly cloudy to mixed today with a slight chance of some scattered flurry activity, and then gradually clear out for a mainly sunny weekend. Winds will be breezy today at around 30–40km/h with some local blowing snow possible in the rural areas of the Red River Valley, but will diminish tonight to fairly light through the weekend.

Warming Up Next Week

As we mentioned earlier in the week, it still continues to appear that a fairly significant warm-up is in our future.

The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature anomaly outlook is forecasting above normal temperatures returning to much of North America.
The NAEFS 8–14 day temperature anomaly outlook is forecasting above normal temperatures returning to much of North America.

Both the NAEFS pictured above as well as the American CPC 6–10 Day Outlook are forecasting a strong likelihood of above-normal temperatures returning to our region. Specific solutions vary quite a bit, but in general it appears that a big warm-up is on tap through the second half of next week with temperatures rising into the –5 to 0°C range. Quite warm air is forecast to move into the region aloft, and with no blocking ridge forecast to develop to our east and a generally more progressive flow, there’s even a slight chance that we might see warmth and sun, which would certainly be a pleasant recovery from the past cold snap.

Given that we’re nearly past the coldest part of the year and I can still remember how nice December was temperature-wise, I think it’s safe to say that this winter is a far cry from the brutal cold we had last year.

A Cold Finish to the Week; Warmer Weather Next?

Cold and dry weather continues through the end of the week and into the weekend, however long-range guidance continues to develop a consensus that will show a moderate-to-significant warm-up by the end of next week.

Today is bringing mainly sunny skies over southern Manitoba with highs near the –20°C mark. It will be a little breezy with northwesterly winds to 20–30km/h. Winds will taper off this evening with temperatures dropping to around –23°C. Clouds will thicken up overnight as a trough of low pressure slides into the region from the northwest.

This trough of low pressure will be the main weather story for Thursday; the first half of the day will be cloudy with some light snow before things begin to clear through the afternoon. Winds will strengthen out of the northwest behind the trough and by mid-afternoon much of the Red River Valley will see winds of 30–40km/h with gusts to 60km/h. Winds will stay breezy through Thursday night at around 30km/h as the temperature drops to around –25°C.

Friday will bring a few clouds and a high near –18°C with breezy winds to 30–40km/h once again out of the west-northwest.

Big Warm-Up Next Week?

Long-term forecast models are beginning to come into a consensus that we’ll see a fairly significant warm-up through the latter half of next week.

A time-series plot of forecast surface temperatures (red) and 850mb temperatures (purple) from the GDPS. Courtesy Spot WX.
A time-series plot of forecast surface temperatures (red) and 850mb temperatures (purple) from the GDPS. Courtesy Spot WX.

Probabilistic forecasts are all showing warmer-than-seasonal temperatures in the 8–14 day period[1], however some models are hinting that it might get significantly warmer. Shown above, the GDPS weather model is bringing 850mb temperatures near 0°C into the region through next week which allows the surface temperatures to gradually climb to around 0°C as well.

There’s a lot of danger in using a deterministic model that far into the future, though, and I’d feel a lot more comfortable with temperatures in the –10 to –5°C range by mid-week instead of promising highs near the freezing mark.

Alongside the warming trend will come a more active storm track which will bring the potential for a couple snow events across the region as well.


  1. Seasonal daytime highs for Winnipeg next week sit around the –12°C mark.  ↩