Warm Weather Continues

The warm, dry weather that has dominated over the past week will continue through the remainder of this week as an area of high pressure continues to stake its claim over the Red River Valley.

Wednesday
27°C / 17°C
Mostly cloudy

Thursday
28°C / 17°C
Mixed skies with slight chance of isolated showers

Friday
27°C / 15°C
Mainly sunny

Wednesday

Today will bring a fair amount of cloud, but it appears that any precipitation will likely remain west of the Red River Valley in Southwestern Manitoba northwards into the Parkland region. There will likely be a small chance of some isolated showers through the Red River Valley, but the odds look slim and even if there were, the total rainfall amounts would be minimal.

While the dry weather is generally appreciated given the wet spring and start to summer, some rainfall would be welcome in the Red River Valley. Winnipeg’s July ended as the 14th driest on record while, in general, the southwestern Red River Valley has now fallen to between 75–90% the normal accumulated precipitation for the growing season. For crops that are near harvest, the dry weather has been welcome, but some crops will be beginning to undergo some stress due to the lack of rainfall. Unfortunately, no significant rains are in the forecast in the coming week.

Percentages of the normal seasonal accumulated precipitation show below-normal rainfall developing in the southwestern Red River Valley.
Percentages of the normal seasonal accumulated precipitation show below-normal rainfall developing in the southwestern Red River Valley.

Cloud and precipitation aside, today will be pleasant. Daytime highs will sit in the upper 20s with light winds. There’s significant disagreement as to what will happen overnight, though, as some models produce no precipitation whatsoever – which is what I’m leaning towards – while others develop an area of showers in the evening and move it through the Red River Valley.

While the possibility certainly exists for some rain tomorrow night, or even an isolated thunderstorm, it’s most likely that the weather will remain dry in the Red River Valley. We’ll be sure to provide an update in the comments below as things become more clear later today. The temperature will drop into the upper teens overnight.

Thursday & Friday

Warm temperatures will continue Thursday with daytime highs once again in the upper 20s. Skies will be mixed with an outside chance of isolated showers in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley. Winds will continue to be light.

Partly cloudy skies with a slight chance for isolated shower activity returns Thursday night as temperatures dip into the upper teens.

Friday will bring partly cloudy skies with a high once again in the mid-to-upper 20’s. Friday night will bring partly cloudy skies with a low in the mid-teens.

Weekend Look-Ahead

The GDPS is forecasting some rainfall on Saturday night as a weak cold front sweeps through the region.
The GDPS is forecasting some rainfall on Saturday night as a weak cold front sweeps through the region.

Summer weather continues right through the weekend with plenty of sunshine on Saturday and Sunday with daytime highs in the upper 20’s. A cold front will advance through the Red River Valley late Saturday afternoon through the evening and bring a chance for thunderstorms to the region, otherwise the weekend into the start of next week looks dry.

Pleasant Start to August Continues

Another nice week is in store, as warm weather sticks around for the beginning of August.

Monday
27°C / 14°C
Mix of sun and cloud
Tuesday
29°C / 16°C
Partly cloudy with slight chance of thundershowers
Wednesday
28°C / 15°C
Mainly sunny

Today will be very nice as temperatures climb into the upper twenties. Skies will be mainly sunny with light winds. There will be a slight chance of showers, but these will be hit and miss.

Tuesday will be similar to Monday, with temperatures once again in the upper twenties under mainly sunny skies. There will again be a slight chance of showers and risk of a thunderstorm. Any rain will be brief, so it shouldn’t be a big deal for most people.

Wednesday will be another pleasant day. Temperatures will be in the upper twenties, with light winds once again. There may be a few showers as well, but mainly in western Manitoba.

Long Range

The remainder of the week looks good, with temperatures staying at near to above-seasonal values. Long range modelling is hinting at cooler weather by mid-month, but we’ll have to see if that ends up panning out.

Elsewhere in Weather News: August 2nd, 2014

Weak Storm Forms in the Atlantic; Typhoon in Pacific

The second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season spun up this past week and is still churning in the Caribbean. Tropical storm Bertha had sustained winds of around 80km/h as of Friday evening but had lots of dry air to its south and was not very well organized. By this evening it is expected continue its northwest track and pass between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, bringing with it heavy rains as its primary threat. As much as 250mm of rain can be expected in the area which is a cause for concern in the mountainous regions. However, Puerto Rico has been experiencing drought for the past few months; the rain in the forecast is actually a welcome sight. On Sunday Bertha will have more of a northward track, curving up the Gulf Coast and likely dying off to the west of Bermuda due to cooler sea surface temperatures. None of the weather models show Bertha strengthening into a major hurricane and the US mainland is not expected to be impacted by this storm.

A large, more dangerous tropical disturbance has formed in the western Pacific this week and is already of category three status with sustained winds of 185km/h. Halong has a well-defined eye and eyewall in place, the only thing currently interfering with its development is some dry air to its north. The typhoon is currently located well east of the Philippines and is expected to be of no threat to the country as it will quickly curve Poleward this weekend. It, however, could pose a significant threat to Japan and China next week as it moves into the East China Sea as a strong typhoon. The islands of Okinawa could be in for a strong storm, as depicted by some models, but it is really too early to say for sure.

Typhoon Halong could become a super typhoon if it continues to strengthen at the rate it has been going. IR image taken Friday night.(Source: CIMSS)
Typhoon Halong could become a super typhoon if it continues to strengthen at the rate it has been going. IR image taken Friday night.(Source: CIMSS)

August off to a Splendid Start

With July in the books, August looks to continue our streak of beautiful weather as an upper-level ridge continues to produce stable, warm and mostly dry weather over Southern Manitoba.

Friday
29°C / 16°C
Sunny with increasing afternoon cloud

Saturday
27°C / 13°C
Mixed skies with a chance of isolated showers

Sunday
26°C / 12°C
Mainly sunny with some afternoon cloud

It won’t take a lot of words to describe the weather over the next few days. Today will bring another sunny day that will most likely be the warmest so far this week with a high temperature approaching the 30°C mark. Clouds will roll in later in the afternoon ahead of a disturbance trundling down from the northwest Red River Valley overnight.

Tonight’s low temperature will bottom out near 15 or 16°C under partly cloudy skies. There could potentially be a few isolated showers through the Red River Valley through the overnight period, but the odds are definitely stacked against it happening.

Saturday looks like a pleasant day with mixed skies and a slight chance of showers in the afternoon through the overnight period again as a weak trough pushes through the region. Temperatures will climb into the mid–20’s for the daytime high and drop down towards low teens overnight.

Sunday will be another seasonal day with highs in the mid 20’s and overnight lows in the low teens. The day will be fairly sunny with some increasing afternoon cloud as a weak system slumps through southwestern Manitoba, bringing some shower activity to that area. Here in the Red River Valley we’ll likely remain dry, although at this point it looks like late in the day some shower activity may edge into the western Red River Valley.

None of the activity over the next few days is expected to be significant and the long-range outlook continues our seasonably warm and dry weather through much of the coming week.