Elsewhere in Weather News: January 18th, 2014

Severe Californian Drought

A severe drought has settled into a good part of the state of California and is starting to be of concern to residents as numerous brush fires have been sparking up this past week. A strong upper level ridge which has persisted over California for a good part of the past month has diverted all low pressure systems well north into BC. With this, a large area of California has been left dry and drought conditions have worsened significantly in the past month. The Drought Index shows that levels have reached extreme for over 50% of California, including Los Angeles. Los Angeles, on average, receives 80mm of rain during the month of January but they have yet to record any rainfall this January. To make matters worse, no pattern changes are in the forecast; the ridge is expected to remain in place at least until the end of January. Models show no precipitation in the foreseeable future for the southern half of California, which means that Los Angeles has a possibility of going the whole month of January without any precipitation.


Drought Index for the West Coast, ranging from abnormally dry (yellow) to exceptional (dark red). A good chunk of California is under extreme (red). (Source: USDA)
Drought Index for the West Coast, ranging from abnormally dry (yellow) to exceptional (dark red). A good chunk of California is under extreme (red). (Source: USDA)

The snow pack in the Sierras has shown telltale signs of drought with only having 20% of the average snow water equivalents for this time (about 25mm of SWE). In this tweet sent out by the Boise NWS a drastic comparison in the snow pack can be seen over the Sierras. If no significant precipitation arrives before spring, California will be setting itself into a long-term drought.

A drought emergency had been issued for California, asking residents to limit their use of water. Bushfires have been flaring up due to the dry conditions, including the Glendora fire which is a fire that started on Thursday and has already burned 1,700 acres east of Los Angeles. Santa Ana winds gusting to 35km/h have been fueling the fire and will continue to do so until tomorrow, making it difficult for crews. Relative humidity in the area has a chance to dip as low as 5% during the day – making for ideal wildfire conditions. This has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a red flag warning east and northeast of Los Angeles.

Unsettled Pattern Continues

Residents in the Red River Valley have barely had time to get the shovels out after Wednesday’s snowfall and Thursday’s blowing snow/blizzard, but more snow and wind is on the way as another system tracks through today. The unsettled weather will continue through the weekend with a brief improvement on Saturday followed by more unsettled weather on Sunday.

Friday
-8°C / -10°C
Increasing cloud in the afternoon then snow. 4-8cm accumulation.

Saturday
-7°C / -9°C
A mix of sun and cloud. Blowing snow in the morning. Chance of flurries.

Sunday
-5°C / -20°C
Light snow developing through the day.

Another Shot of Snow Tonight

More snow is on the way later today through tonight as another low pressure system dives southeastwards through the province. Before that, though, we’ll see mainly sunny skies with relatively light winds out of the south at only around 20-30km/h by the afternoon. The temperature should climb up to around -8°C in Winnipeg while areas closer to the U.S. border may see the temperature get as high as -5°C or so.

Expected storm-total snowfall amounts by Saturday morning.
Expected storm-total snowfall amounts by Saturday morning.

Cloud and snow will stream in fairly quickly from the northwest later this afternoon as the low pressure system begins slumping southwards through the Interlake. The heaviest snowfall will fall before midnight with lighter flurries persisting thereafter into the early morning. The snow will taper off by tomorrow morning with totals generally between 4-8cm through Winnipeg & most of the Red River Valley.

Blizzard conditions may develop in the southwestern Red River Valley thanks to the funnelling effect of the western escarpment.

Winds won’t be as strong as Wednesday through the snowfall event – around 30km/h gusting to 50 or so in Winnipeg and the eastern Red River Valley and a little bit stronger in the western Red River Valley at around 40 gusting 60km/h. There will be some blowing snow through the overnight period, but I don’t think we’ll see anything as extensive as on Wednesday night into Thursday. The one caveat may be the southwestern Red River Valley[1] where blizzard conditions may develop thanks to a funnelling effect of the western escarpment. Winds may climb up to 50 gusting 70km/h which should be enough to produce a widespread white-out. The strong winds will move in overnight and taper off midday tomorrow.

Nice Start to Weekend, Snowy End

Skies will clear out early Saturday morning with any blowing snow hanging on a little longer until the winds die down. Otherwise we’ll see mixed skies with a high near -7°C with fairly light winds. There will be a slight chance of a flurry or two, but no accumulations are expected.

We’ll drop to an overnight low of just -9°C[2] as more cloud cover begins working it’s way in ahead of another disturbance on it’s way. There will be a continued chance for some isolated flurries overnight.

Sunday will be a mainly cloudy day with snow developing through the afternoon. We’ll climb up to a high of around -5°C. The snow will taper off through the evening on Sunday with some breezy northerly winds producing some blowing snow through the Red River Valley. At this point it doesn’t look too bad, fortunately. Skies will clear Sunday night and we’ll drop to an overnight low of around -20°C.

We’ll continue on an unsettled track through next week as very cold Arctic air begins pushing it’s way back into the region. It seems like we’ll be seeing overnight lows near -30 to -35°C in the latter half of the week, so enjoy the upcoming mild weather!


  1. Areas near Carman, Altona, Winkler, Morden, and Emerson are most likely.  ↩
  2. An overnight low that’s warmer than our normal daytime high for January 17th!  ↩

Mid-January Storm To Bring All Manner of Nasty Weather

A powerful storm system is pushing into Southern Manitoba this morning and will become the first major storm of the year. This storm will impact the entirety of Manitoba and bring very strong winds, heavy snow, near-blizzard conditions and a good chance of some freezing rain. Read on to find out where will see what as we break this thing down.

  • Significant weather expected: strong winds (and blowing snow), freezing rain and heavy snowfall.

  • Expected storm-total snowfall amounts from this system.

Disclaimer: I could write many more words than I have time to write about this system. As such, I’m going to just explicitly state right now that while I may mention areas outside the Red River Valley, the focus of this post will be for the weather expected in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley.

We’ll start out with the good news: temperatures are expected to stay near or above normal[1] through the remainder of the week; no horribly cold Arctic air is expected to slam southwards into the Prairies with this system. That’s about where the good news ends, though.

As we progress through this morning, an area of snow will move into the Red River Valley, pushing in from the west ahead of the incoming warm front. The low pressure centre is currently in northeastern Saskatchewan and will begin to dive southeast into Central Manitoba later this morning. Winds will strengthen out of the south this morning up to around 40-50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h. Despite the relatively mild temperatures – we’re sitting at around -10°C – extensive blowing snow will likely be an issue in areas to the south of Winnipeg[2] thanks to the strength of the winds.

Wednesday

3°C / -11°C
Snow beginning this morning. Very windy. Risk of freezing rain this afternoon. Flurries overnight with blizzard conditions in the Red River Valley.

The heaviest snowfall will pass to the north and east of the city where a heavy snowfall warning is in effect for 10-15cm of snow. Here in the Red River Valley we’ll see a fair gradient in snowfall amounts from the southwest corner to the northeast corner thanks to how the precipitation spreads in from northwest to southeast. Through the day today, areas in the southwest corner can expect the lighter end of the snowfall with only around 2-5cm accumulation by the evening. Here in Winnipeg we’ll see from 5-10cm of snow while closer to 10cm of snow will fall to our north and east.

Our winds, as mentioned before, will become quite strong out of the south. They’ll lighten a little bit for the early afternoon as they swing to the west as the low pressure system moves through the Interlake and the warm front pushes east of the Red River Valley. Our temperature will jump up to around +2 or +3°C and we’ll see a break in any blowing snow that’s happening. By mid-to-late afternoon, though, a cold front will be approaching. Winds will shift a little more to the northwest and we’ll see a risk for some freezing rain just ahead of and along the cold front as it pushes through. In addition, there is the potential for some fairly heavy bursts of snow along the cold front with some models hinting that there may be a fair amount of convective activity associated with it[3]. Winds will shift straight out of the northwest by the evening and strengthen considerably to 50km/h with gusts potentially as high as 80km/h overnight here in Winnipeg.

This wind will readily whip up the freshly fallen snow in the RRV and produce near-zero or white-out conditions on area highways. Despite the fact that temperatures will not drop too quickly – only to around -10°C overnight – it will still be a brutal night. Continued flurry activity will likely continue through the night, compounding the visibility problems presented by the winds alone.

Thursday


⇒ -10°C / -20°C
Windy with blowing snow. Mainly cloudy.

The snow will taper off early on Thursday, but poor visibilities will continue through much of the day as the strong northwest winds persist at 40-50km/h at least into the early afternoon. Temperatures will remain fairly steady at around -10°C.

By evening the wind will taper off as a ridge of high pressure moves into the province, bringing an end to any blowing snow left in the Red River Valley. The clouds will also scatter out and we’ll drop to a chilly -21°C for our overnight low.

Friday & The Weekend


-10°C / -14°C
Cloudy periods with a chance of afternoon flurries.

Friday will start off sunny but some cloudy periods will develop as a warm front pushes into the Red River Valley. We’ll become overcast in the mid-to-late afternoon and see a chance for a few flurries as the warm front pushes eastwards. This front will usher in warmer air for the weekend with highs near the 0°C mark and overnight lows dropping just shy of around -10°C.


  1. Normal daytime highs are around -13°C for mid-January.  ↩
  2. As usual, with a southerly wind the highways that will be affected most are those that run west/east.  ↩
  3. As evidenced by lightning in Northern Alberta last night.  ↩

Roller Coaster Pattern Setting Up

This week will feature wild swings in the weather. Conditions will range from warm to chilly to snowy, with the weather varying from one day to the next.

A low pressure system will bring light snow to southern Manitoba on Monday

A low pressure system will bring light snow to southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday

Chance of Snow Late
-10°C / -18°C

Today will be a bit cooler than the conditions we’ve experienced lately. High temperatures will be around the -10°C mark, with southerly winds. We’ll also see some snow begin to move into Western Manitoba from Saskatchewan in the morning or early afternoon. Total accumulations in Western Manitoba are expected to range from 2 to 5cm. The Red River Valley will be right on the edge of this area of snow, so we may end up with a couple centimetres if the snow pushes into the valley.

Tuesday

Tuesday

Decreasing Cloudiness
-11°C / -25°C

Tuesday will remain on the cooler side, though temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal. Highs will once again be near -10C, with a breezy north-west wind, but no precipitation is expected. We’ll cool down into the minus twenties on Tuesday night, but those cold temperatures will be short-lived.

Wednesday

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy. Chance of Flurries. Risk of Freezing Rain or Ice Pellets.
2°C / -18°C

By Wednesday a powerful low pressure system will send warm air cascading across the Prairies. The cold air from Wednesday morning will be scoured out from Southern Manitoba by the afternoon as temperatures rise above zero in most areas. However, this warm air will be accompanied by very strong winds. Southerly winds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h in the morning will switch to westerly winds of 40-50km/h gusting to 60-70km/h in the afternoon. These warm temperatures should make the snow more difficult to blow around, though some blowing is possible in the morning before we warm up.

Some light snow will be possible on Wednesday in association with this low pressure system. Larger snowfall amounts will be possible if the system tracks further south than currently expected. In addition to the snow, there may even be a bit of freezing rain or ice pellets because that warm air may melt snowflakes as they descend from the clouds. Unfortunately, the cold front associated with this low will pass through on Wednesday night, sending in colder air for Thursday.

Thursday and Beyond

Warmer than normal weather is being forecast by the NAEFS model for the second half of January
Warmer than normal weather is being forecast by the NAEFS model for the second half of January

Thursday looks to be our coldest day for the next while, with high temperatures near -20C and gusty winds making it feel much cooler. However, besides Thursday It appears we will continue to see temperatures near or slightly above normal for the next while. Long range models continue to suggest that the second half of January will be warmer than normal, though we will still likely see the odd cold day here or there. No major weather systems are in the forecast, but this pattern will probably continue to send a parade of clipper systems coming out of Alberta, bringing the chance for light snow every few days.