Temperatures Will Be Cooler, But Remain Above Seasonal

Despite moving onto the back-side of a massive low pressure system with gusty northerly winds, Southern Manitoba won’t be falling into a deep freeze; the cooler temperatures moving in place will instead be cooler but still above typical seasonal values. Alongside the minor cool-down, the region will be dealing with periods of light snow as the low pressure system that brought a mix of rain and snow over the past couple days slowly moves off into Eastern Canada.

Skies will be mainly cloudy over the coming few days, with a slight chance of the odd ray of sunshine on Thursday and a better chance of skies becoming mixed on Friday. Temperatures will be relatively steady through the week as well, with temperatures steady near 0°C today giving way to daytime highs near -2°C on Thursday and Friday. Lows will fall just a few degrees below the highs, with lows near -5°C on Thursday and Friday. On the off chance that some clear patches show up at night, temperatures have the potential to plummet closer to the -9 or -10°C, but those values won’t be seen underneath cloudy skies.

The RDPS forecast shows light snow accumulatiosn across much of Southern Manitoba on Wednesday night through Thursday.
The RDPS forecast shows light snow accumulatiosn across much of Southern Manitoba on Wednesday night through Thursday.

Today will bring periods of light snow to the region, tapering off to scattered flurries tonight and through the next couple days. By Friday, any flurry activity should be relatively isolated. No notable accumulations are expected from the snow over the coming days.

Winds will be out of the north at 20-30 km/h through the day with a few gusts on top of that. The wind will diminish tonight, followed by light winds for Thursday and Friday.

November Looking To Take Top Spot As Warmest on Record

Winnipeg continues it’s incredibly warm winter with non-stop above-normal temperatures.

The average daily high temperature for November 2016 now sits at 7.4°C, beating out the previous record of 7.1°C set in 2009. The average daily low temperature for the month is now at -1.0°C, crushing the previous record of -3.2°C set in 1923. Combine the two, and the average daily mean temperature sits at 3.2°C, beating the 117 year old record of 1.3°C set in 1899 by almost 2°C.

The unprecedented warmth will fade as we head into December, though; all long-range guidance is suggesting a return to seasonal temperatures in the coming week. While colder air does look like it will begin working its way into the Prairies in the coming weeks, so far it appears most of it will remain west of Manitoba, leaving us with a continued stretch of near-seasonal temperatures ahead.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -15°C.

Mild Conditions Continue

The remainder of the work week will be marked by daytime highs climbing above 0°C, continuing an above-normal temperature trend that has persisted through every single day so far this November.

Today will be damp but mild as stratus cloud bringing drizzle and fog lingers throughout the region. A few isolated flurries may also be thrown into the mix as well, but we’re done with any accumulating snow for now. We should reach a high temperature of +2°C, which will continue to melt the snow that fell yesterday morning across the city. Winds will be light out of the northwest at 10-15 km/h. Expect cloudy skies tonight with a continued chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle alongside fog patches. Tonight’s low should be near -1°C.

Thursday will likely be more of the same with low-level moisture trapped under a slack flow. Temperatures will reach a high near +2°C with light winds. There will be a very slight chance of some patchy drizzle or fog. For Thursday night, skies will remain mostly cloudy until some clearing begins working in late overnight. Temperatures will dip to a low near -2°C.

This forecast sounding for Thursday afternoon in Winnipeg shows a deep layer of saturated air in the lower atomosphere.
This forecast sounding for Thursday afternoon in Winnipeg shows a deep layer of saturated air in the lower atomosphere.

Friday will likely bring some sunshine back to the region with more above-normal temperatures on tap as the daytime high climbs to +2 or +3°C. Skies will gradually clear through the day and things should finally start to dry out a bit. Winds will be light out of the south.

Tuesday Snow Breaks Record

While the actual snowfall event that began early in the morning on Tuesday November 22 was unimpressive with just 2-5 cm of fresh snow accumulation across the city, it managed to break a long-standing record: the latest day of first measurable snowfall.

RankDate of First Measurable Snowfall (≥ 0.2cm)Year
1November 222016
2November 211963
3November 201953
4November 191931
5 tie
5 tie
November 18
November 18
1880
2015
7November 171890
8November 161977
9November 151903

Yesterday’s snowfall was the latest in the year Winnipeg has seen its first fall/winter snow in the 144 year old record that dates back to 1872.

Long Range

The weekend looks quite nice with a fair amount of sun and mild temperatures with daytime highs continuing slightly above the freezing mark. Heading into next week, though, it appears another significant winter storm may be brewing. Some long-range models are hinting at the possibility of 10-25 cm over the Red River Valley through the first half of next week, but it’s still too early to really comment on how accurate any of those predictions will be.

That said, the continued significant story is the above-normal temperatures that have been in place the entire month of November and continue to be forecast through to the end of the month. If we do indeed see high temperatures close to what is currently forecast, November will be in the contest for the warmest November on record!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -4°C while the seasonal overnight low is -13°C.

November “Heat” Continues

Our November “heatwave” will continue into early this week as temperatures remain well above normal. However, change is coming later this week as a strong low pressure system ushers in a much cooler air mass.

This Week

Today will be fairly nice in southern Manitoba. High temperatures will be near the 10C mark in most areas with mainly sunny skies to start the day. Clouds will begin rolling in as the day progresses, in association with a low pressure system pushing in from the west. This system may bring some light showers to southern Manitoba this evening and tonight, but no major accumulations are expected. Stiff southerly winds will be in place during the day with values of 30 km/h gusting to 50 km/h.

A nice Tuesday is expected, with mainly sunny conditions and “hot” temperatures yet again. The mercury should rise near the 10C mark, which is more than ten degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. Winds will be strong again though, with a westerly flow of 30 km/h gusting to 50 km/h.

Slightly cooler weather appears likely for Wednesday as another low pressure system begins pushing up from the south. As a result, skies will be mainly cloudy with a chance of showers or flurries throughout the day. Winds will be easterly at 20-30 km/h.

Long Range

Models have consistently advertised a strong low pressure system passing through the northern US later this week. This exact track of this system remains unclear, but it appears quite likely that it will usher in a much cooler pattern to southern Manitoba from late this week into the weekend.

While the current GDPS forecast has this storm completely missing Southern Manitoba, the GFS clobbers the region with heavy snow.
While the current GDPS forecast has this storm completely missing Southern Manitoba, the GFS clobbers the region with heavy snow.

Should the system take a northerly track we will also have to contend with heavy precipitation, in addition to the cooler temperatures.

Can’t Keep The Heat Down For Long

A cold front that passed through yesterday will try to cool things off in Winnipeg, but the heat won’t be kept down for long with well above-normal temperatures bouncing back into the region for the weekend.

A cooler air mass will be in place over Winnipeg today, ushered in by a series of cold fronts which passed through the region on Thursday. Today’s high temperatures will sit around 6°C across Winnipeg & the Red River Valley under sunny skies. While this is 7°C cooler than yesterday and 12°C cooler than Wednesday’s high of 18.8°C, a high of 6°C is still well above the seasonal average high of 0°C.

The wind will begin to pick up out of the south this afternoon, first to 20-30 km/h and then strengthen to 30-40 km/h tonight as a warm front pushes across the Red River Valley. Temperatures will dip to a low near 3°C.

Saturday will bring milder air back to Southern Manitoba. With the warm front off to our east, mainly sunny skies, and light winds, the high of 12 or 13°C will feel quite pleasant. Temperatures will drop to a low near 4°C on Saturday night.

The heat continues on Saturday with temperatures forecast to be over 10°C above normal.
The heat continues on Saturday with temperatures forecast to be over 10°C above normal.

Sunday will bring mixed skies as a cold front sweeps through midday. Temperatures will reach a high near 11 or 12°C before the front comes through, and then the winds will pick up out of the northwest to 20-30 km/h. It doesn’t appear that the passage of the front will bring any rain to the region, but a very light sprinkle can’t be ruled out.

Temperatures will drop to a low near 0-1°C on Sunday night.

Long Range

It appears that the unseasonably warm and dry weather will continue for quite a while yet, with most outlooks showing no sign of significant abatement until next weekend. The biggest sign of change looks to be a system expected to track into our region on Friday November 18th. Models diverge on the general outcome of this system, with two primary possibilities:

  1. A quick-moving system that slides through over 12-18 hours and produces 10-20 mm of rain over Southern Manitoba.
  2. A significantly slower outcome: a potent Colorado Low that could potentially produce a blizzard over Southern Manitoba.

It’s still very early to speculate much on this, but the one thing that looks fairly certain is that, no matter which solution, it will mark a shift in the overall weather pattern that will bring temperatures (generally) back towards seasonal values.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 0°C while the seasonal overnight low is -8°C.