GDPS 850mb Temperature Anomaly valid 12Z Friday March 11, 2016

Short-Lived Cool Snap Gives Way to Potential Record-Breaking Warmth

Temperatures will be cooler behind yesterday’s Colorado Low that grazed the southeastern portion of the province, however the mercury won’t be dipping much. Today will be the coolest day of the week and yet temperatures will still remain above seasonal for mid-March. The cooler weather will be short-lived before another surge of warm air that will bring spring weather to the Red River Valley, potentially threatening record high and record warm minimum temperatures!

Today will be a relatively cool day with the temperature climbing to the freezing mark with a light south-southeasterly wind. Skies will be mixed through the day with a bit of sun and a few cloudy periods, particularly mid-day into the afternoon. Much of the cloud will clear out tonight as temperatures dip to near -6°C.

After today, though, the heat starts moving eastwards and temperatures will soar to 10-15°C above normal for mid-March. Thursday will bring partly cloudy skies[1] and daytime highs climbing towards the 6°C mark with light southerly winds continuing. If temperatures manage to eke just a degree or so higher, there will be a chance of breaking Winnipeg’s record high temperature for March 20th.

Daily Record High and Record Warm Minimum Temperatures for Winnipeg, MB
Day Record High Record Warm Minimum
Thursday March 10 6.7°C (1902) 0.6 (1878)
Friday March 11 12.8°C (2012) 2.8°C (1878)

The mercury will dip to around 3°C on Thursday night with southerly winds strengthening to around 30km/h. This mild overnight low will set Winnipeg up for another potentially record-breaking day on Friday, where partly cloudy skies will give way to temperatures climbing into the low teens. The daytime high on Friday will likely sit near 11°C, however throughout the entire city the temperature could easily be in the 10-15°C range. The airport is typically on the cooler side, so it will be a bit of a nail-biter as to whether we break the record high of 12.8°C set in 2012.

GDPS 850mb Temperature Anomaly valid 12Z Friday March 11, 2016
The GDPS is forecasting 850mb temperatures over 20°C above normal for Friday morning.

Depending on how fast things cool off in the evening, we may also see the record warm minimum temperature for March 11 be broken as well. The record is currently 2.8°C set in 1878, which will require a temperature warmer than that through Thursday night and a temperature remaining warmer than than until midnight on Friday night.

In addition to the warmth, of note particularly for Friday is the potential for unseasonably high dewpoint values. While the GDPS is fairly conservative with dewpoints remaining near the 1°C mark, several other models are showing dewpoint values rising into the upper single digits. There are two main stories if the elevated dewpoints do indeed show up:

  • We could break the record high dewpoint in Winnipeg for March 11, which currently sits at 6.0°C set in 2012.
  • There would be huge amounts of snow melt. The process of snow melt is limited when dewpoint values remain below 0°C for a variety of thermodynamic reasons. As the dewpoint climbs above 0°C, melting becomes significantly more efficient. By the time the dewpoint climbs to even +4 or +5°C, snow melt can be enormous if combined with mild temperatures. If these elevated dewpoints arrived for Friday with a high in the low teens, then almost certainly a dramatic portion of the remaining snow pack in the Red River Valley would be gone by this time next week.

Long Range: Warm, Warm, Warm!

The long-range forecast looks quite simple: continued warmth.

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Probability Outlook valid March 14-18, 2016
CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Probability Outlook valid March 14-18, 2016

Long-range forecasts show a high likelihood of the mild weather continuing well into next week. This will mean that daytime highs in the 5-10°C range, if not even warmer, will be commonplace through the next week.

This warmth, combined with little-to-no expected precipitation through the period, will continue to rapidly erode the snow pack over the Red River Valley, further enabling milder temperatures to develop. Spring-like weather has arrived!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -3°C while the seasonal overnight low is -13°C.


  1. There’s a slight risk of seeing cooler temperatures and more cloud if a system tracking through the Prairies slumps a bit further south, but at this point it looks like much of the cloud will remain to our north.  ↩
Wall Cloud near Clairevale

Winnipeg & Area’s Top 10 Weather Stories of 2015

2015 brought a huge assortment of wild weather to Southern Manitoba. From torrential rains, damaging wind storms, tornadoes, and above-normal temperatures to snow storms, there wasn’t much waiting between significant weather events. Here’s our top 10 weather stories of 2015!


#10 – Parade of Snowstorms Just Before Christmas

Three snowstorms dumped a total of 40 cm of snow from December 16th to 23rd in Winnipeg.

The biggest snowstorm occurred on the 16th and 17th, dumping 20 cm. Strong winds helped carve drifts up to two-feet deep in some spots. 18 cm fell on December 16th alone at the official Charleswood station, breaking the old record of 8.4 cm in 1942 for the day.

Snowfall totals from the December 22-23, 2015 Snow Storm
Snowfall totals from the December 22-23, 2015 snow storm

With all the snow in mid December, travel was dramatically impacted. Residential streets were difficult to navigate and numerous vehicles were reported stuck in the snow. Thanks to the snowfall, snow depth in Winnipeg sat at 30 cm on Christmas morning; this was the deepest snow pack on Christmas Day in 15 years (since a 30 cm depth in 2000). In total, 44.0 cm of snow fell in Winnipeg in December, 83% above normal and the 12th snowiest December on record since 1872.

#9 – Dry Winter and Warm January

After a frigid start to January, a warm spell blessed southern Manitoba with above normal temperatures. A 17-day streak of above normal temperatures occurred from January 14 to 30. During this period, daily highs averaged -1.9°C and daily lows averaged -12.1°C, about 10°C warmer than normal. 6 days in the period exceeded the freezing mark and 6 days never saw temperatures dip below -10°C. The warmest days were January 22 and 23 when temperatures soared to 3.7°C and 3.1°C at the airport respectively. It was warmer inside the city with highs between 4 and 6°C. Some parts of southern Manitoba never even dipped below freezing on January 23. The extended warm spell melted what little snow was on the ground. By January 31, snow depth in Winnipeg was 12 cm, the 12th thinnest on record for the day since 1941. Gloomy skies and freezing drizzle were also common during the warm spell.

In the end, January averaged -13.7°C, tied with 2010 for 19th warmest since 1873.

Overall, it was a very dry winter. Only about 31 mm of precipitation fell from December to February, the 9th driest winter on record since 1872. 44.4 cm of snow fell, the 29th least snowy winter.

#8 – A Summer of High Humidity

With an average dewpoint of 13.6°C (June to August), summer 2015 tied with 1996 for 4th most humid summer on record in Winnipeg since 1953. 22 days from June to August saw dewpoints exceed 20°C, the 2nd most since 1953 and well above the normal of 10 days.

Dewpoint temperatures in July specifically averaged 16.1°C, the 2nd most humid July and month on record since 1953. The 1981-2010 normal is 14.2°C. An 8-day streak with dewpoints over 20°C occurred mid month. A maximum dewpoint of 24.1°C was achieved on July 12, breaking the old record of 23.9°C in 1955 for the day. 14 days saw dewpoints over 20°C, tied with 1957 for most on record in July since 1953.

A 5-day heat wave hit southern Manitoba in mid August. Temperatures exceeded 30°C and on some days 32°C. August 14 was the hottest day with some records broken, including in Brandon with a high of 36.6°C. Four days with dewpoints over 20°C accompanied the heat wave. Dewpoint temperature peaked at 24.5°C in Winnipeg on August 15, shattering the old record of 21.7°C in 1972 for the day. It was also the latest occurrence of dewpoint over 24°C since 1953. High minimum temperature records were also broken in Winnipeg (21.2°C) and Morden (22.0°C).

#7 – Summer in September

September began with a three-day heat wave as temperatures exceeded 30°C and in some cases 32°C. Oppressive humidity accompanied the heat which is unusual for September. The main records broken during the heat wave are listed below. Note: temperature records go back to 1872 while dewpoint and humidex records go back to 1953.

  • Record high minimum of 21.0°C on the 3rd was also the second highest in September.
  • Two high dewpoint and three high minimum dewpoint records were broken, including:
    • High dewpoint of 23.1°C on the 3rd was also just shy of the all-time September high of 23.4°C in 1983 and was the second highest in September.
    • A high minimum dewpoint of 18.7°C on the 3rd was also an all-time high for September.
  • Humidex reached 42.0 on the 3rd, the second highest in September. This, along with a humidex value of 40.1 the previous day, were only two of six occurrences of humidex over 40 in September since 1953.

Strong thunderstorms on the 4th and 5th ended the heat wave with a bang. Severe storms between 1 and 8 am on the 4th dropped dime to toonie size hail southeast of Winnipeg and northwest of Minnedosa. Strong thunderstorms moved up the Red River Valley in the afternoon. The Winnipeg area saw 30 to 50 mm of rain in under an hour, causing severe street flooding. Wind gusts over 80 km/h also caused some damage. With more rain later on, daily totals sat between 40 and 60 mm. The airport recorded 41.1 mm, breaking the record of 36.8 mm in 1872. Heavy thunderstorms moved up the Red River Valley again on the 5th, dumping 15-40 mm of rain southeast of Winnipeg.

Another 30°C day occurred on September 13. Winnipeg reached 31.6°C, just shy of the record of 31.7°C in 1927. Records were broken along the US border including in Morden and Pilot Mound where highs of 33.8°C and 33.3°C occurred.

It was the 6th warmest September on record since 1872 in Winnipeg with an average mean temperature of 15.8°C. It was also the second warmest since 1949. Dewpoint temperatures averaged 9.8°C, the 3rd most humid September since 1953.

#6 – A Very Early Spring

April-like temperatures arrived by the second week of March. Record highs were achieved on the 14th and 15th. Winnipeg reached 13.2°C on March 14, breaking the old record of 11.4°C in 1981. A high of 14.3°C the following day was just shy of the record of 14.4°C in 2012. The warmest temperatures occurred along the US border. Morden reached 18.3°C on the 14th and 17.6°C on the 15th, the earliest occurrences of temperature over 16°C on record since 1904. The high of 18.3°C on March 14 broke the old 2012 record by an impressive 7.1°C! Nights were unusually mild as well. A morning low of 6.7⁰C in Winnipeg on March 15 was the warmest morning low for so early in the year since 1953.

The winter snow pack disappeared in Winnipeg by March 15, tied with 1995 for third earliest snow melt since 1955. This was a day later than in 2012 and a day earlier than in 2010.

In the end, March averaged -3.0°C, 2.8°C warmer than normal and the 20th warmest March since 1872. Even thunderstorms with small hail occurred on March 30 west and north of Winnipeg. No thunder was heard in Winnipeg but small hail fell in the south end with some convective showers.

#5 – Active Thunderstorm Season in Southern Manitoba

Manitoba had the greatest number of reported tornadoes and waterspouts in Canada for 2015. In addition, Manitoba had the most severe hail and severe thunderstorm rain reports of the three Prairie provinces.

At least 11 tornadoes and waterspouts occurred in Manitoba in 2015, the most in more than 5 years. Two events brought worldwide attention: at least 2 tornadoes and waterspouts on July 18 near Matlock and at least 3 tornadoes on July 27 in southwestern Manitoba(3 tornadoes were mentioned in Justin Hobson’s chase story).

On July 18, a landspout tornado near Matlock travelled over Lake Winnipeg, becoming a waterspout. The storm produced at least one other waterspout and they occurred simultaneously. The storm and funnels were photogenic and photos spread around the world on social media.

On July 27, a supercell travelled over 100 km from Tilston to northeast of Virden, producing multiple tornadoes in a 3-hour timeframe. Some were violent as seen on videos. One tornado reached about a kilometre wide. Luckily, the tornadoes dodged all major communities.

Only a few farms and highways experienced damage. Environment Canada sent a damage survey team to investigate. The worst damage they saw was from a high-end EF-2 tornado (winds close to 200 km/h). It is entirely possible that the tornadoes may have been even stronger, but because they weren’t hitting anything significant it is impossible to tell.

Hail was also a big story this summer across southern Manitoba. The greatest proportion of severe hail reports were in August thanks to extreme nocturnal activity mid and late month. Significant hail events occurred on August 12, 22 and 28.

Along with parts of southern Alberta, southern Manitoba had the greatest concentration of severe thunderstorm warning days as seen in the map below. The Minnedosa warning region of southwestern Manitoba saw 19 days in 2015 with a severe thunderstorm warning, the most of all warning regions in Canada.

#4 – May Long Weekend Storm

A Colorado Low slammed southern Manitoba during the May Long Weekend. Heavy rain, damaging wind, large waves on the lakes and snowfall occurred.

The rain in Winnipeg began late on Saturday May 16 and persisted the entire day on Sunday May 17. 35-50 mm fell in the city. 31.3 mm fell at Winnipeg airport on May 17 alone, breaking the old record of 22.9 mm in 1903 for the day. Heavier rains fell to the southwest with 50-90 mm from Morden to Carman to Melita. Significant overland flooding occurred with many farm fields underwater.

The rain was accompanied by sustained winds of 47 to 63 km/h at Winnipeg airport for 22 consecutive hours. Wind gusts were between 80 and 95 km/h. A peak gust of 93 km/h was recorded in Winnipeg. The wind damaged property, caused power outages and uprooted trees. In addition, larges waves and storm surge occurred on Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg.

On Monday May 18, snow and strong wind occurred. Snow fell throughout the night, ending in the morning. The cold and wind combined to produce wind chill values of -9. Between a dusting and 3 cm of snow fell in Winnipeg, depending where you were. 2.5 cm was measured in Charleswood on May 18 alone, just shy of the old record of 3.0 cm in 1963. A snow depth of 2 cm in the morning observation broke the old record of trace cm. The snow melted in the afternoon. This was the latest spring snowfall in Winnipeg since 2002 when a trace cm fell on May 23 and the latest snowfall accumulation since 1969 when 0.3 cm fell on June 12. Prior to this year, snow had fallen on May 18 only 4 times since 1872. Heavier snow fell west of the city with a swath of 10-15 cm from Boissevain to McGregor to Teulon to the Gimli area.

– August 22-23 Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain

Significant thunderstorms and heavy rain pummelled Winnipeg and the surrounding area on August 22 and 23. Due to extreme nature of the event and the large area affected, the event is considered number three in the Top 10 series.

The event began overnight on August 22 when severe thunderstorms developed north of a warm front. The bulk of the storms remained north of Winnipeg, sparing the city from the worst of the event.

The city got a spectacular lightning show, while the cottage-country north of Winnipeg and a few towns northwest of the city took the brunt of the storms. Very large hail fell from Westbourne to Teulon to Matlock to Beaconia to Silver Falls. The largest hail stone reported was 10 cm in diameter, located near Silver Falls. Significant and widespread damage occurred as a result. Locally 40-50 or more mm of rain also fell within an hour, causing overland flooding. The following table gives a chronology of storm reports from the event.

Table: Chronology of storm reports from the overnight thunderstorms of August 22
Approx. Time Location Event
2:00 am Westbourne Nickel to golf ball size hail.
4:15 am Teulon Quarter size hail with significant accumulation. Tree, garden and vehicle damage occurred. 43 mm of rain in 1 hour caused overland flooding. Mounds of hail still remained on the ground hours after the storm.
4:45 am Matlock 5 cm diameter hail.
5:15 am Grand Marais Gold ball size hail.
5:30 am Beaconia Baseball size hail punched holes in roofs and totalled almost every vehicle left outside during the storm. 50+ mm of rain also fell within an hour.
5:45 am – 6:00 am Pine Falls, Powerview and Silver Falls area Nickel to softball size hail. One photo showed a 10 cm diameter hailstone.

Heavy thunderstorms developed again midday in the Red River Valley. Winnipeg was particularly hard hit by these. 50 mm fell in less than 1 hour in parts of the south end. Nickel to toonie size hail, wind gusts to 80 km/h and frequent lightning also occurred, making for quite a storm to remember. Numerous streets and underpasses flooded and some were impassable. Water seeped into and flooded parts of St Vital Mall. Lightning caused a few fires and wind snapped branches.

Rainfall totals from the August 22-23 Storms
Rainfall totals from the August 22-23 storms

The afternoon thunderstorms also dumped some large hail in other areas. Nickel to quarter size hail fell in Oakbank, Winkler and Jessica Lake. Training thunderstorms continued to pummel southeastern Manitoba late afternoon and evening, dumping significant rainfall. Rain from these also spread into the Winnipeg area and Red River Valley. Wrap-around rain around the low pressure system continued to drench south and southeastern Manitoba in the overnight and morning on August 23. Two-day rainfall totals were significant. Widespread totals of 50 to 110 mm occurred throughout the Red River Valley, southeastern Manitoba and the Interlake. In Winnipeg, close to 75 mm fell in southern sections of the city. At Winnipeg airport, about 46 mm fell. 38.4 mm of this fell on August 22 alone, breaking the old record of 38.1 mm in 1959 for the day.

– Warm and Moist Fall

All three fall months (Sep, Oct & Nov) finished in the top 30 warmest on record since 1872 in Winnipeg: September was 6th warmest, October tied 30th warmest and November tied 16th warmest. It was the 4th warmest fall on record since 1872 with an average mean temperature of 7.3°C, tied with 1953 and 2009. Brandon also had a 4th warmest fall on record (since 1890), averaging 6.2°C.

In October, the warmth peaked during the Thanksgiving weekend. Record warmth was seen along the US border with highs near 28°C in Pilot Mound, Morden and Sprague. Winnipeg reached a non-record maximum of 24.6°C on the 11th. Even some weak thunderstorm activity occurred in the evening on the 11th, ahead of a strong low pressure system which produced damaging winds the following day.

A 25-consecutive day streak of above normal temperatures occurred from October 26 to November 19. During this time, 10-consecutive days from October 27 to November 5 never dropped below freezing. Warmth and humidity returned mid November before winter-like conditions arrived. Temperatures exceeded 10°C from the 14th to 16th with a maximum of 13.1°C on the 15th. Unusually high humidity also occurred with dewpoints reaching 9.4°C on the 16th and 9.3°C on the 17th, both record highs and the latest occurrences of dewpoint over 9°C on record since 1953. Thanks to the high humidity, a record high minimum temperature of 5.3°C was achieved on the 16th, the latest minimum above 5.0°C since 1872.

Dewpoint temperatures averaged 3.2°C in fall 2015, t he second most humid fall on record since 1953. November dewpoint temperatures in particular averaged -2.9°C, the highest on record, beating the old record of -3.0°C in 1981.

Thanks to warm conditions, the first accumulative snowfall was on November 18 in Charleswood, Winnipeg’s official station for snowfall. This was the 4th latest first snowfall accumulation of the season since 1872. It was also a month later than the normal of October 18. In addition, no snowfall was recorded in October, only the 16th time this has occurred since 1872.

– Amazingly Warm Start to December

Remarkable warmth started December across southern Manitoba. 8 to 10 days in the first half of the month exceeded the freezing mark in Winnipeg, above the normal of 4 days for the month. 14-consecutive days from the 3rd to 16th never dropped below -9°C at Winnipeg airport, amazing when you consider this was close to the normal high. Temperatures reached 7°C downtown and 4°C at the airport on the 3rd, one of the warmest days of the month. The only record broken during the warm spell was on December 9 when a high of 5.6°C at the airport broke the old record of 5.1°C in 1990.

Morden, MB – Cutting grass in December.
December started with such warmth that the grass still needed to be cut in Morden, MB.

The warmth was most impressive where there was no snow cover. 3 to 7 cm of snow was leftover from November in the Winnipeg area and this limited temperature. Areas without snow cover southwest of the city and in southwestern Manitoba were much warmer. Many locations reached double digits and in some cases more than once. In Morden, four days exceeded 10°C, three of which were record highs. The high of 14.2°C on December 4 was the third warmest on record in December since 1904. Some thermometers reportedly reached 15°C, more typical of late September or early October. No snow was on the ground at the time. A similar milestone was reached in Brandon with a high of 11.1°C on the 4th, the third warmest temperature in December since 1890.

The first half of December (December 1 to 15) averaged -3.0°C at Winnipeg airport, the second warmest first half of December on record since 1872. The warmest was in 1913 with an average of -2.1°C. The month as a whole averaged -8.1°C, tied with 2011 for 9th warmest December since 1872.

Mild Weather Continues Through The Weekend

Above-seasonal temperatures will continue through to the end of the weekend in Winnipeg and the Red River Valley thanks to a continued flow of mild air sourced from the Pacific. Some light snow will be possible Saturday night and into Sunday as a low pressure system moves through the region and brings cooler temperatures to start off next week.

Sunny skies will help temperatures climb to a balmy +1°C this afternoon as mild air spreads eastwards across the province. Winds will remain relatively light out of the southwest at 10-20 km/h. Other than that, there isn’t much to say about today! Enjoy it!

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with southwest winds gradually tapering off and temperatures dipping to just -4°C[1].

Saturday will be another mild day with a daytime high near 0°C. Winds will be very light through much of the day before gradually picking up out of the north later in the afternoon through the evening. The day will start off mainly sunny, but through the afternoon cloud cover will spread southwards as the northerly winds pick up. As the cloud moves in, there will be a slight chance of some flurries, but more organized snowfall will not likely move into the region until the evening.

RDPS 12hr. QPF valid 12Z Sunday February 28, 2016
A low pressure system will bring snow across Mantioba on Saturday night

Snow will fall through much of Saturday night, although accumulations aren’t expected to be particularly significant; 2-3 cm are possible in Winnipeg & the northern Red River Valley, while less than 2 cm is expected through most areas in the Red River Valley south of the Trans-Canada Highway. Temperatures will dip to an overnight low near -12°C with those north winds blowing at 20-30 km/h.

Sunday will be a cloudy day with the northerly winds tapering off and a high near -5°C[2]. A chance of flurries will persist through Winnipeg & the Red River Valley for much of Sunday.

A second chance for more organized snow will return on Sunday night as the next low pressure system moves across the province ahead of another push of cooler air. This system will bring the chance for 2-4 cm of snow across much of the Red River Valley, alongside gusty northerly winds and plummeting temperatures. As the snow moves through, temperatures will fall towards an overnight low near -17°C.

Long Range: Another Brief Cold Snap

Monday will see any remaining snow clear out of Manitoba. Temperatures are a little tricky; depending on the exact timing of Sunday night’s system, temperatures will either see a high in mid-minus teens or fall through the day. Either way, colder air is on the way in and below-normal temperatures are expected for Monday and Tuesday in the wake of Sunday night’s low.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid March 4 to March 11, 2016
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid March 4 to March 11, 2016

Heading into mid-week, though, it appears temperatures will quickly trend back towards seasonal values. Little-to-no precipitation is expected through this period. By the end of the week, above normal temperatures are likely to be back in place. Overall, as shown in the NAEFS forecast above, that our below and above normal temperatures next week will lead to an overall near-seasonal temperature regime for the long-range.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -16°C.


  1. A low of -4°C is still 2°C above the seasonal daytime high for this time of year!  ↩
  2. There’s some disagreement between models on the positioning of the incoming air mass behind Saturday’s system. There’s a chance that Sunday could be colder with daytime highs closer to -10°C.  ↩

A Stretch of Above-Seasonal Temperatures

The weather this week will remain well above seasonal with high temperatures generally in the minus single digits.

Today will be mainly cloudy with a good chance of flurries as a strong upper-level disturbance passes through southern Manitoba. No significant accumulations of snow are expected. Temperatures will be in the mid minus single digits with north-westerly winds at 20-30km/h.

Skies should clear on Tuesday as a drying north-west flow persists over the region. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than Monday, but still in the minus single digits. Winds will generally be light and variable.

A strong low pressure system will be the focus of Wednesday’s weather in southern Manitoba. A warm front will pass through during the day, bringing with it a small, but heavy band of snowfall. Given the warmth of the air associated with this front, there is a chance of some mixed phase precipitation in some areas, but it’s too early to discuss those details. It appears that 2-4 cm of snow is probable with this system, but again that total should be revisited closer to the event.

Long Range

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast
The CPC’s 6-10 day temperature anomaly forecast shows a strong return to El Nino winter conditions.

In the longer range it appears we’ll see above-seasonal weather last for the rest of the week before more normal weather returns next week. Long range models aren’t showing a clear signal for February’s weather at this time, which suggests fluctuations between above and below normal conditions.