Sweltering Summer Heat Continues

Hot, humid weather continues in Winnipeg this week with a chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday.

The upper ridge that has brought a hot and humid air mass to the province isn’t going anywhere any time soon. As a result, neither will the heat. Temperatures over the next couple days will continue to climb into the low 30s during the day and dip to the low 20s at night. Along with this heat, dew points in the low 20s will produce humid conditions with humidex values climbing towards 40.

Winnipeg will see a bit of cloud over the next couple days with winds out of the southeast at 20 to 30 km/h.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday June 30, 2020
Hot, humid conditions will continue over southern Manitoba on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, a “cold” front will push across the region, bringing more cloud and some showers with the risk of a thunderstorm. Given the hot and humid air mass in place, there will likely be a risk for severe thunderstorms in the region. What exactly it will look like, though, will depend significantly on the evolution of the system over the next two days as it brings more rounds of severe thunderstorms to southeastern Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will cool slightly behind the cool front on Wednesday, but the heat quickly returns for Friday into the weekend. Highs will climb back into the low 30s with humidity returning to the region. It appears that a reprieve from the heat (or at least the humidity) is likely after the weekend.

Stay safe and enjoy the summer weather as best you can!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 25°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

Cooling Off But Remaining Unsettled

Winnipeg will see another hot and humid day capped off with a risk of thunderstorms before cooler temperatures move in.

Temperatures will again climb into the low 30s today in Winnipeg as southerly winds continue to pump heat northwards. The city has seen a bit of a break from the humidity overnight, but it will build back in through the day with dew points rising to around 20°C. A disturbance lifting northwards into the region this morning will bring a chance of showers later this morning into the afternoon. By late afteroon, activity will intensify with thunderstorms developing along a cold front pushing eastwards across the province.

Much of the Red River Valley and areas east will see a risk of severe thunderstorms this evening, but the greatest threat will be over southeastern Manitoba. The main threats in the Red River Valley will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. The thunderstorms should move eastwards out of the Red River Valley through the evening. Brisk southerly winds of 30 to 40 km/h today will ease in the evening.

For more details on the severe thunderstorm threat over southern Manitoba, refer to ECCC’s Thunderstorm Outlook on our Bulletin Viewer and watch for updated forecasts and/or any alerts issued today.

NAM 2m Dew Point Forecast valid 00Z Thursday June 18, 2020
A hot and humid air mass will provide fuel for a thunderstorm outbreak over southern Manitoba later today.

Much cooler conditions will arrive for Thursday with mixed skies and a good chance of showers. Temperatures will work towards a high of 22°C with west-northwest winds picking up to around 30 km/h. The region will see a good chance of showers as an upper low stalls over southern Manitoba. Any showers will taper off in the evening as temperatures head to a low near 9°C under partly cloudy skies.

The sluggish upper low will still impact the region on Friday with partly cloudy skies and a chance of showers. The high will be seasonably cool near 21°C with southwest winds of 20 to 30 km/h. Winnipeg should see a few clouds on Friday night with a low near 11°C.

Long Range Outlook

Cool and unsettled conditions will likely persist into the weekend with highs in the low 20s and a couple more chances for showers. Seasonal conditions will return next week with more settled conditions developing.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24°C while the seasonal overnight low is 11°C.

Hot, Often Humid, And Unsettled

Several days of hot and humid weather lie ahead for Winnipeg with increasingly unsettled conditions.

Winnipeg will see temperatures climb to 30°C today with mixed skies in an increasingly humid air mass. With dew points reaching the upper teens later today, it will feel more like the mid-30’s outside. A cool front will nudge eastwards this afternoon, bringing a chance of showers or thunderstorms followed by some drier air. Winds will be south at 30 to 40 km/h through the morning, then ease and shift westerly behind the cold front. Temperatures will dip to a low near 16°C tonight with mixed skies.

Heat and humidity will return on Tuesday as a warm front lifts northwards out of the Dakotas. There will be a chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm in the morning if some elevated convection manages to develop and slide eastwards across the Red River Valley ahead of the warm front. Temperatures will climb to a high near 32°C in the afternoon with humid conditions developing. Dew point temperatures should climb into the 20 to 22°C range, producing humidex values in the 35 to 40 range. Winds will pick back up into the 30 to 40 km/h range and keep most of their strength through the night. The humid and windy conditions will keep temperatures very warm on Tuesday night with a low of just 22°C.

RDPS 2m Dew Point Temperature Forecast valid 00Z Wednesday June 17, 2020
After a brief reprieve on Monday night, humid weather will build back into southern Manitoba through the day on Tuesday and persist through Wednesday. Temperatures may stay very warm on Tuesday night across the region.

Wednesday will continue the hot and humid weather with a high near 30°C and breezy southerlies. Cloud cover will increase through the day with another chance of showers or thunderstorms redeveloping. Temperatures will dip back to a low near 17°C on Wednesday night.

Beginning Tuesday evening, there will be several chances for showers or thunderstorms in the Winnipeg and across much of southern Manitoba. With the hot and humid air mass in place, many of the thunderstorms may have the potential to be severe. These upcoming setups are nuanced and other than the broad generalizations above, few specifics are available until closer to the events.

NAM MLCAPE Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday June 17, 2020
Hot and humid conditions will provide moderate to high amounts of energy for thunderstorms to work with beginning Tuesday evening and lasting through Wednesday.

Over the coming days, be sure to check the ECCC Thunderstorm Outlook, available on our bulletin viewer. We’ll have more to say in the coming days on the thunderstorm threat, but for now just take note that beginning Tuesday evening, Winnipeg may see several chances for thunderstorms with a risk of severe thunderstorms right through Wednesday night.

Long Range Outlook

A cold front pushing through on Wednesday night will bring calmer weather and seasonal temperatures back to Winnipeg. The weekend is looking seasonably cool with perhaps a passing chance of showers. Temperatures will begin to warm through the start of next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24°C while the seasonal overnight low is 11°C.

Pleasant Days Ahead With Increasingly Unsettled Nights

Winnipeg will see temperatures begin to climb again as a deep southerly flow begins pushing summer heat back towards the region. With it, though, will come increasingly unsettled overnight conditions.

Today will be a cool but pleasant day in Winnipeg. With partly cloudy skies and breezy northwest winds near 30 gusting 50 km/h, temperatures will climb to a high near 19°C. A ridge of high pressure sliding across the province will ensure the winds drop off quickly in the evening. Temperatures will dip to a low near 8°C.

On Saturday, seasonal temperatures will return to Winnipeg with highs climbing to around 22°C. Southeasterly winds will begin to pick up in the afternoon into the 20 to 30 km/h range. Skies should be mainly sunny as well, making for a great summer Saturday. Conditions will turn heading into the evening, though, as clouds move in ahead of a warm front approaching the region. Overnight, a strong low-level jet will develop, supporting a broad area of showers that will lift northwards through the night. The showers will have limited instability, so while isolated thunderstorms will be possible there won’t be a notable severe weather threat. The showers will exit the region late overnight or early Sunday morning. The southeasterlies will persist right though the night at 30 to 40 km/h and temperatures should dip to a low near 13°C.

NAM Simulated RADAR Reflectivity valid 09Z Sunday June 7, 2020
Showers will move through southern Manitoba on Saturday night.

Sunday will bring mostly cloudy skies to the region with winds gradually easing to 30 gusting 50 km/h. After Saturday night’s showers move out, the day should stay dry. The high temperature will be a bit tricky and highly dependent on how much sunshine the city ends up with. A rather warm and humid summer air mass will be moving into the region. If skies stay overcast, Winnipeg may see a high of only 23 or 24°C. If the sun manages to poke out a bit more, temperatures could reach as high as the upper 20’s. For now, we expect a few sunny breaks but otherwise mainly cloudy skies and a high near 26°C.

NAM 2m Dew Point Forecast valid 00Z Monday June 8, 2020
Humid conditions will move into Southern Manitoba on Sunday afternoon with dew points climbing into the upper teens.

It will be a warm night on Sunday night with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. The region may see isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms on Sunday night; be sure to check ECCC’s thunderstorm outlook as the weekend progresses in our Bulletin Viewer. Temperatures will reach a low near 18°C on Sunday night with relatively humid conditions.

Long Range Outlook

To start next week, Monday will bring more hot and humid weather with high approaching 30°C and humidex values near 35. Drier westerly winds will move into the region by Monday evening, breaking the humid weather and allowing lows to return to the mid- to low teens. The rest of the work week looks to bring seasonal to slightly cool temperatures and variable cloudiness.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22°C while the seasonal overnight low is 9°C.