Winnipeg will see temperatures return to near-seasonal values with a smattering of showers moving through the region; rather favourable conditions compared to the sub-freezing temperatures and snow building into Alberta!
The primary weather feature that will dominate over the next few days is a large low pressure system over central Saskatchewan. While this system will end up producing a wide swath of snow through Alberta into far southwestern Saskatchewan, things will remain more mild on the eastern side of the system with occasional rain the concern instead of a winter storm.
Today will bring some morning showers to Winnipeg as a shortwave lifts northwards out of the Dakotas. The rain should taper off by lunch, with a bit of sun poking out through the afternoon. Temperatures will climb to a high near 16°C with light winds picking up out of the southwest to around 30 km/h. Clouds will begin working back into the region tonight as winds taper off and temperatures dip to a low near 6°C.
Winnipeg will find itself once again on the western edge of rain moving northwards through the Red River Valley
Mostly cloudy skies will be in place for Winnipeg on Tuesday with a chance for some more showers. Temperatures will be cooler with a near-seasonal high of 13°C and winds will remain light. Expect a low near 5°C on Tuesday night with continued cloudy skies.
Things finally change on Wednesday as the remnants of the Alberta/Saskatchewan storm move out of the region. Skies will clear out of Winnipeg through the morning, leaving us with a fair amount of sunshine for the latter half of the day. Temperatures will once again reach a high near 13°C with winds out of the southwest at 20-30 km/h. Expect partly cloudy skies on Wednesday night as temperatures head to a low near +4°C.
Long Range
The remainder of the week looks to bring seasonal temperatures and variable cloudiness. No significant rains are expected. Early indications are that Winnipeg may see another disturbance bring more rain to the region at the end of the weekend.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 14°C while the seasonal overnight low is 3°C.
The generally mild and pleasant weather Winnipeg has seen the past couple days will continue for a few more, bringing sunshine and slightly above-normal temperatures until the next disturbance arrives in the region on Sunday.
Winnipeg is off to a chilly start today, courtesy a ridge of high pressure sitting right on top of the region that has plunged overnight lows to around the freezing mark. As the ridge moves off to the southeast today, temperatures will rebound back to seasonal values; Winnipeg should see a high near 15°C with light southerly winds and mainly sunny skies (outside of any fog that will burn off through the morning). The Red River Valley will see clear skies tonight with southerly winds increasing to 20-30 km/h by Saturday morning. Temperatures will dip to a low near 5°C in Winnipeg.
Breezy southerlies will develop as outflow from a large ridge of high pressure over Ontario is squeezed against an incoming low pressure system
Saturday will be a warm and windy day with southerly winds increasing to around 40 km/h as temperatures climb to a well above-seasonal high of 19 or 20°C. Skies will be sunny through the morning, but cloud will begin working into the region from the south later Saturday afternoon into the evening. There will be a slight chance of some showers as the low-level jet ramps up and brings some mid-level instability to the region. Temperatures will continue mild on Saturday night with a low near 13°C and breezy southerly winds continued.
Rain is possible across much of southern Manitoba on Sunday
Sunday will bring cloudy skies to the region as a low pressure system moves in from the west. Winds will continue out of the south-southeast at around 30 km/h and temperatures will be just a tad cooler than Saturday with highs near 17°C. Showers will be possible throughout much of the day, particularly in the afternoon and evening as a more organized area of rain lifts northwards out of the Dakotas. There will also be a slight chance of seeing a thunderstorm as there will be a low to moderate instability associated with this system. A chance of rain will continue on Sunday night as temperatures dip to a low near 10°C.
Long Range
Next week starts with a bit of a mixed bag; the unsettled weather will likely continue on Monday before improving in the evening, but another chance for rain looks to materialize on Tuesday afternoon. The rest of the week looks drier, but with sporadic chances for some light rain. Temperatures will continue near- to below-seasonal for much of the week.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 15°C while the seasonal overnight low is 3°C.
Although Winnipeg has seen most of the rain the city will receive during this unsettled period, the cool and soggy weather will remain in place for a couple days yet before improving for the latter half of the week.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy1 across the central and eastern Red River Valley today ahead of yet another disturbance that will lift northwards through the American Plains towards southern Manitoba. Under the cloud, there will be a continued chance for drizzle, particularly through the morning hours. The areas that may even see very heavy drizzle or showers will be south of Lake Winnipeg, where the warm lake waters will enhance the intensity of the precipitation. Temperatures will continue cool today with highs near 12°C with winds out of the north at 15-25 km/h. Skies will remain cloudy tonight with a continued chance for drizzle. Temperatures will drop to a low near 7°C while winds diminish to light.
Deep low-level moisture will help to sustain periods of drizzle until midday Monday.
Tuesday will bring more rain to southeastern Manitoba as another disturbance moves through Minnesota. While the rain moves through the southeastern corner of the province, portions of the Red River Valley will see a chance of rain, mainly due to uncertainty about how far west the rain will actually reach. Winds will remain light as temperatures head to a high near 12°C once again.
The rain will taper off by evening as the light winds shift to the west and temperatures drop to a low near 6°C. Skies will clear overnight.
Some models are keeping much of the rain east of the Red River Valley, while others pull westwards.
Wednesday will finally bring sunny conditions back to the region with clear skies in the morning giving way to partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Temperatures will be quite a bit warmer with highs near 19 or 20°C and westerly winds of 10-20 km/h.
Temperatures will once again drop to a low near 6°C on Wednesday night with skies clouding up again. An upper-level disturbance will swing across the Red River Valley from west to east overnight, likely bringing another batch of rain to the region with 5-10 mm possible, although amounts will likely taper off quickly to the south of the line, likely leaving portions of the southern valley with no rain.
Long Range
The latter half of the week looks to return to more seasonal temperatures as northwesterly winds move back into the region behind Wednesday night’s disturbance and a large ridge of high pressure moves in. There may end up being a significant frost risk at some point later in the week, but we’ll have to just wait and see how cool things are able to get underneath the ridge of high pressure.
There’s some indication that more unsettled conditions will move back into the region on weekend or early next week as another upper-level trough digs over the American Rockies.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 16°C while the seasonal overnight low is 4°C.
Some sunshine will likely work into the western Red River Valley; if it manages to push further east, Winnipeg may end up seeing a bit more sun. ↩
A developing Colorado Low has brought very humid conditions to Manitoba’s doorstep, and a disturbance moving through the province today will tap into that moisture and spread showers and thunderstorms across the Red River Valley into the southeastern corner of the Province.
An upper-level disturbance moving through the province will bring a late-season thunderstorm risk to the Red River Valley with a small risk of severe storms. There’s a surprising amount of support for thunderstorms, largely due to the building humidity in Minnesota over the past few days. While the weather in Winnipeg is cool and dry, conditions have become positively balmy in Minnesota, where there are overnight lows in the 20s thanks to sticky dew points in the 20-22°C range.
A stationary front lies across northern Minnesota and far southeastern Manitoba this morning.
The dry air over the Red River Valley is separated from the muggy Minnesota conditions by a fairly strong frontal boundary running from Nebraska northeastwards through Minnesota and into northwestern Ontario. As an upper-level disturbance approaches today, that humid air will be lifted up over the front and into southern Manitoba. So while we won’t see particularly humid conditions here at ground-level, further up in the atmosphere will see significant moisture move in.
Before the weather gets busier this afternoon, temperatures will climb to a high near 18°C, but winds will be breezy, increasing out of the northeast to 30 gusting to 50 km/h.
By mid- to late-afternoon, things will likely begin firing up with widespread showers moving into the province from North Dakota. While showers and/or thunderstorms will be widespread over south-central and southeastern Manitoba, the severe thunderstorm threat will be confined to two regions. Within the Red River Valley, there will be a slight chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm or two, while southeastern Manitoba sees a higher chance of more widespread severe thunderstorm activity. The primary threats from today’s thunderstorms would be severe hail and/or wind.1
AWM Thunderstorm Outlook for September 22, 2017
The rain and thunderstorms will move out of the region this evening. When all is said and done, most areas will have seen somewhere between 5-10 mm of rain, with amounts of 20-40 mm possible in areas that see more thunderstorm activity. Skies will remain fairly cloudy tonight as temperatures dip to a low near 10°C with winds diminishing to around 20 km/h.
Things calm down for Saturday as the region sees a lull between Friday’s disturbance and another system moving on for Sunday. Expect mostly cloudy skies, a high near 16°C, and winds out of the north at around 20 km/h. Skies will remain cloudy on Saturday night with a low near 10°C again.
Some guidance suggests significant rainfall on Sunday
A Colorado Low will progress through the region on Sunday, bringing rainy conditions to much of Southern Manitoba. Unfortunately at this time, it’s not quite clear exactly how rainy things will be. Some guidance has this system a bit more progressive and tracking further eastwards, which would result in 5-15 mm of rain in the Red River Valley, but others — such as the GDPS shown above — are slower with the system and bring it further west. The slower solutions would result in higher rainfall amounts for the region, more likely in the 15-30 mm range with localized spots perhaps seeing 40 mm.
At this point, the lower rainfall solution seems most likely, but we’ll be keeping an eye on it. Otherwise, it will be a cool day with a high of just 12°C and more northerly winds around 30 km/h. Expect a cloudy low near 9°C on Sunday night.
Long Range
Cloudy and cool conditions are expected to persist into the beginning of next week, but Winnipeg will likely be done with any significant rainfall chances. By mid-week, it looks like things will clear out with temperatures returning to seasonal values. The more pleasant weather may continue through next weekend, which would be a nice change!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 16°C while the seasonal overnight low is 4°C.
EC³ considers hail with 20 mm diameter or larger and wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h to be severe. ↩
