Showers Give Way To Beautiful Weather

After some more showers move through Winnipeg & the Red River Valley today, conditions will begin to settle as an upper-level ridge builds into the Prairies, bringing sunny skies and warmer temperatures.

A few more showers will move through the Winnipeg region this morning as a low pressure system slides through the region, but overall rainfall totals are expected to remain low. The rain will move off by mid-morning, and Winnipeg will be left with clearing skies and light northwesterly winds. Temperatures will climb up to a high near 16°C.

Skies will be partly cloudy tonight with a very slight chance of a shower overnight. The low temperature will drop to near 6°C.

An upper-level ridge will build into the western Prairies over the coming days.

For Thursday, the weather will be dominated by an upper-level ridge building into the western Prairies. This type of weather pattern brings stabilizing conditions to the eastern Prairies. As a result, Winnipeg will see mainly sunny skies on Thursday with temperatures climbing up to around 19°C. Expect a few clouds on Thursday night with a low near 9°C.

Friday will be another beautiful day, although there may be a few more clouds about than Thursday. It will still be quite sunny, and temperatures will climb above 20°C for a high. Winds will increase to 15-20 km/h out of the north for the afternoon. Expect a low near 7°C on Friday night with mainly clear skies.

Long Range

The weekend continues to look great with plenty of sunshine and highs near 20°C. Winds will also continue to be relatively light as well.

The nice weather will continue into next week, although by mid-week there may be another chance for some showers throughout the region.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 17°C while the seasonal overnight low is 3°C.

Unsettled Conditions Move In

The weather will gradually turn more unsettled in Winnipeg over the coming few days, although temperatures will continue to remain mild, making for relatively pleasant spring weather.

Today will be another dry day with mild temperatures in Winnipeg as temperatures climb to a high near 17°C with light winds. Skies will start off sunny, but more cloud will build into the region through the day. Skies will remain fairly cloudy tonight as temperatures drop to a low near 4°C.

Tuesday will mark the transition into a slightly more unsettled pattern as multiple weak low pressure systems begin working through the area. Skies will mixed as temperatures climb to a high around 16°C. Through the afternoon, there will be a chance of seeing some showers as daytime heating leads to some pop-up convection. The showers will be relatively weak, though, and no significant amounts are expected. Skies will remain mixed on Tuesday night with a continued slight chance for some showers as temperatures drop to a low near 4°C.

The GDPS is showing an area of showers across Southern Manitoba on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday will, once again, feature a high near 16°C and a continued chance for showers as another weak disturbance moves through the region. Expect a low near 4°C again on Wednesday night with a continued chance for light shower activity.

Long Range

The remainder of the week looks mild and dry, with conditions stabilizing on Thursday and warmer air pushing in on Friday. Skies look like they’ll remain at least partly cloudy to mixed, but all in all, lovely weather ahead.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 16°C while the seasonal overnight low is 2°C.

Spring Arrives in the Red River Valley

There will be no mistaking it this week: spring has arrived!

Temperatures will remain above normal through the coming week as a westerly flow aloft continues to spread mild Pacific air eastwards across the Prairies. With a rapidly eroding snow pack in the Red River Valley, it will also become easier and easier to reach warmer temperatures as the surface albedo decreases.1

It won’t all be sunshine, however. Today’s weather will be driven by a weak mid-level disturbance rolling through. It will bring fairly cloudy conditions through much of the day and a chance of rain or freezing rain in the morning.2 Winds will remain fairly light as temperatures climb to a high near 5 or 6°C. Clouds will remain fairly cloudy tonight as well with temperatures dropping to a low near -2°C.

The RDPS model shows a narrow band of showers over the Red River Valley this morning.

Tuesday will be a bit nicer, with some of the cloud breaking up to give a mix of sun and cloud to Winnipeg. Temperatures will climb to a high near 8 or 9°C with light northeasterly winds. Temperatures will drop to a low near 0°C under mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday night. There will be a slight chance of some rain overnight as a warm front pushes through, but that will depend on whether or not it ends up strong enough to support any showers.

Wednesday will bring some more cloud to the region, but temperatures will climb to a high near 10 or 11°C. Winds will be out of the south near 20 km/h. Skies will break up a bit overnight with temperatures dropping to a low near 2°C.

Long Range

Temperatures will continue to be mild with daytime highs near the 10°C mark throughout the remainder of the week and into the weekend. There will be a few chances for some showers throughout the second half of the week and into the weekend, but they seem to mainly be during nighttime. For the most part, it looks like beautiful weather ahead.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 3°C while the seasonal overnight low is -7°C.

  1. Albedo is a measurement of how much energy a surface reflects instead of absorbs. Snow has a very high albedo—up to 85-90%—which means a majority of energy from the sun is reflected back upwards. Bare ground only reflects around 10-15% of the incoming energy, absorbing the other 85%. This allows temperatures to climb much higher over bare ground compared to snow-covered ground. 
  2. What the precipitation falls as will depend precisely on the surface temperature at the time. 

Friday’s Disturbance Leads To Cooler Weekend

Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will push into Winnipeg & the Red River Valley this weekend behind a low pressure system that will bring rain to portions of Southern Manitoba on Friday.

Today will bring a low pressure system, talked about in Wednesday’s forecast, through the province. In that post, we discussed how there was uncertainty in the track of the low, and that it seemed like much of the rain associated with it would fall across the Interlake. With the system imminent now, it’s become readily apparent that it will indeed primarily affect areas to the north of Winnipeg, at least for much of the day today.

Today will be a cloudy one across Winnipeg & the Red River Valley with light winds and temperatures climbing to a high near 12°C. Late this afternoon, winds will pick up out of the northwest to around 30 km/h, bringing with them a chance of some rain as a cold front sweeps southwards across the province. No significant accumulations are expected in Winnipeg, unlike the further north where 15-25 mm are possible along a west-east line running from Swan River eastwards across the Northern Interlake and Berens River.

With the gusty northerly winds and light showers tonight will come dropping temperatures. Lows should sit near 2°C tonight with winds tapering off towards Saturday morning. With the cooler temperatures and northwesterly winds, there may also be more persistent shower activity in the lee of Lakes Manitoba & Winnipeg as a result of weak lake-effect precipitation.

Light shower activity is expected across Southern Manitoba on Friday night.
Light shower activity is expected across Southern Manitoba on Friday night.

Saturday will be a mainly cloudy day with light winds and a much cooler, more seasonal high near 6°C. Expect continued cloud cover on Saturday night with lows near 1°C.

Sunday will start off cloudy but will likely bring an occasional sunny break in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue seasonal with a high near 8 or 9°C, but the wind will be more noticeable as it picks up out of the south to around 30 km/h once again. There’s a slight chance that it could end up even slightly windier than that, with sustained winds near 40 km/h, but at this point guidance suggests winds will be closer to the 30 km/h mark.

Expect a low on Sunday night near 5°C under partly cloudy skies.

Long Range

Guidance continues to be fairly consistent in a low pressure system moving through the province on Monday that will bring a soaking rain to much of Southern Manitoba. It’s a bit early for exact numbers, but general amounts 10-25 mm have been consistently produced by guidance over the past several days. After that system moves through, an upper ridge will build into the southern Prairies and…

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid November 4, 2016 to November 11, 2016
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid November 4, 2016 to November 11, 2016

Dry weather with an extremely high likelihood of above-seasonal temperatures will be on the way for Southern Manitoba, alongside much of North America, through the second half of next week. So hang tight, it looks like we have some beautiful November weather ahead!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -4°C.