Unsettled Pattern Continues

Residents in the Red River Valley have barely had time to get the shovels out after Wednesday’s snowfall and Thursday’s blowing snow/blizzard, but more snow and wind is on the way as another system tracks through today. The unsettled weather will continue through the weekend with a brief improvement on Saturday followed by more unsettled weather on Sunday.

Friday
-8°C / -10°C
Increasing cloud in the afternoon then snow. 4-8cm accumulation.

Saturday
-7°C / -9°C
A mix of sun and cloud. Blowing snow in the morning. Chance of flurries.

Sunday
-5°C / -20°C
Light snow developing through the day.

Another Shot of Snow Tonight

More snow is on the way later today through tonight as another low pressure system dives southeastwards through the province. Before that, though, we’ll see mainly sunny skies with relatively light winds out of the south at only around 20-30km/h by the afternoon. The temperature should climb up to around -8°C in Winnipeg while areas closer to the U.S. border may see the temperature get as high as -5°C or so.

Expected storm-total snowfall amounts by Saturday morning.
Expected storm-total snowfall amounts by Saturday morning.

Cloud and snow will stream in fairly quickly from the northwest later this afternoon as the low pressure system begins slumping southwards through the Interlake. The heaviest snowfall will fall before midnight with lighter flurries persisting thereafter into the early morning. The snow will taper off by tomorrow morning with totals generally between 4-8cm through Winnipeg & most of the Red River Valley.

Blizzard conditions may develop in the southwestern Red River Valley thanks to the funnelling effect of the western escarpment.

Winds won’t be as strong as Wednesday through the snowfall event – around 30km/h gusting to 50 or so in Winnipeg and the eastern Red River Valley and a little bit stronger in the western Red River Valley at around 40 gusting 60km/h. There will be some blowing snow through the overnight period, but I don’t think we’ll see anything as extensive as on Wednesday night into Thursday. The one caveat may be the southwestern Red River Valley[1] where blizzard conditions may develop thanks to a funnelling effect of the western escarpment. Winds may climb up to 50 gusting 70km/h which should be enough to produce a widespread white-out. The strong winds will move in overnight and taper off midday tomorrow.

Nice Start to Weekend, Snowy End

Skies will clear out early Saturday morning with any blowing snow hanging on a little longer until the winds die down. Otherwise we’ll see mixed skies with a high near -7°C with fairly light winds. There will be a slight chance of a flurry or two, but no accumulations are expected.

We’ll drop to an overnight low of just -9°C[2] as more cloud cover begins working it’s way in ahead of another disturbance on it’s way. There will be a continued chance for some isolated flurries overnight.

Sunday will be a mainly cloudy day with snow developing through the afternoon. We’ll climb up to a high of around -5°C. The snow will taper off through the evening on Sunday with some breezy northerly winds producing some blowing snow through the Red River Valley. At this point it doesn’t look too bad, fortunately. Skies will clear Sunday night and we’ll drop to an overnight low of around -20°C.

We’ll continue on an unsettled track through next week as very cold Arctic air begins pushing it’s way back into the region. It seems like we’ll be seeing overnight lows near -30 to -35°C in the latter half of the week, so enjoy the upcoming mild weather!


  1. Areas near Carman, Altona, Winkler, Morden, and Emerson are most likely.  ↩
  2. An overnight low that’s warmer than our normal daytime high for January 17th!  ↩

Mid-January Storm To Bring All Manner of Nasty Weather

A powerful storm system is pushing into Southern Manitoba this morning and will become the first major storm of the year. This storm will impact the entirety of Manitoba and bring very strong winds, heavy snow, near-blizzard conditions and a good chance of some freezing rain. Read on to find out where will see what as we break this thing down.

  • Significant weather expected: strong winds (and blowing snow), freezing rain and heavy snowfall.

  • Expected storm-total snowfall amounts from this system.

Disclaimer: I could write many more words than I have time to write about this system. As such, I’m going to just explicitly state right now that while I may mention areas outside the Red River Valley, the focus of this post will be for the weather expected in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley.

We’ll start out with the good news: temperatures are expected to stay near or above normal[1] through the remainder of the week; no horribly cold Arctic air is expected to slam southwards into the Prairies with this system. That’s about where the good news ends, though.

As we progress through this morning, an area of snow will move into the Red River Valley, pushing in from the west ahead of the incoming warm front. The low pressure centre is currently in northeastern Saskatchewan and will begin to dive southeast into Central Manitoba later this morning. Winds will strengthen out of the south this morning up to around 40-50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h. Despite the relatively mild temperatures – we’re sitting at around -10°C – extensive blowing snow will likely be an issue in areas to the south of Winnipeg[2] thanks to the strength of the winds.

Wednesday

3°C / -11°C
Snow beginning this morning. Very windy. Risk of freezing rain this afternoon. Flurries overnight with blizzard conditions in the Red River Valley.

The heaviest snowfall will pass to the north and east of the city where a heavy snowfall warning is in effect for 10-15cm of snow. Here in the Red River Valley we’ll see a fair gradient in snowfall amounts from the southwest corner to the northeast corner thanks to how the precipitation spreads in from northwest to southeast. Through the day today, areas in the southwest corner can expect the lighter end of the snowfall with only around 2-5cm accumulation by the evening. Here in Winnipeg we’ll see from 5-10cm of snow while closer to 10cm of snow will fall to our north and east.

Our winds, as mentioned before, will become quite strong out of the south. They’ll lighten a little bit for the early afternoon as they swing to the west as the low pressure system moves through the Interlake and the warm front pushes east of the Red River Valley. Our temperature will jump up to around +2 or +3°C and we’ll see a break in any blowing snow that’s happening. By mid-to-late afternoon, though, a cold front will be approaching. Winds will shift a little more to the northwest and we’ll see a risk for some freezing rain just ahead of and along the cold front as it pushes through. In addition, there is the potential for some fairly heavy bursts of snow along the cold front with some models hinting that there may be a fair amount of convective activity associated with it[3]. Winds will shift straight out of the northwest by the evening and strengthen considerably to 50km/h with gusts potentially as high as 80km/h overnight here in Winnipeg.

This wind will readily whip up the freshly fallen snow in the RRV and produce near-zero or white-out conditions on area highways. Despite the fact that temperatures will not drop too quickly – only to around -10°C overnight – it will still be a brutal night. Continued flurry activity will likely continue through the night, compounding the visibility problems presented by the winds alone.

Thursday


⇒ -10°C / -20°C
Windy with blowing snow. Mainly cloudy.

The snow will taper off early on Thursday, but poor visibilities will continue through much of the day as the strong northwest winds persist at 40-50km/h at least into the early afternoon. Temperatures will remain fairly steady at around -10°C.

By evening the wind will taper off as a ridge of high pressure moves into the province, bringing an end to any blowing snow left in the Red River Valley. The clouds will also scatter out and we’ll drop to a chilly -21°C for our overnight low.

Friday & The Weekend


-10°C / -14°C
Cloudy periods with a chance of afternoon flurries.

Friday will start off sunny but some cloudy periods will develop as a warm front pushes into the Red River Valley. We’ll become overcast in the mid-to-late afternoon and see a chance for a few flurries as the warm front pushes eastwards. This front will usher in warmer air for the weekend with highs near the 0°C mark and overnight lows dropping just shy of around -10°C.


  1. Normal daytime highs are around -13°C for mid-January.  ↩
  2. As usual, with a southerly wind the highways that will be affected most are those that run west/east.  ↩
  3. As evidenced by lightning in Northern Alberta last night.  ↩

Roller Coaster Pattern Setting Up

This week will feature wild swings in the weather. Conditions will range from warm to chilly to snowy, with the weather varying from one day to the next.

A low pressure system will bring light snow to southern Manitoba on Monday

A low pressure system will bring light snow to southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday

Chance of Snow Late
-10°C / -18°C

Today will be a bit cooler than the conditions we’ve experienced lately. High temperatures will be around the -10°C mark, with southerly winds. We’ll also see some snow begin to move into Western Manitoba from Saskatchewan in the morning or early afternoon. Total accumulations in Western Manitoba are expected to range from 2 to 5cm. The Red River Valley will be right on the edge of this area of snow, so we may end up with a couple centimetres if the snow pushes into the valley.

Tuesday

Tuesday

Decreasing Cloudiness
-11°C / -25°C

Tuesday will remain on the cooler side, though temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal. Highs will once again be near -10C, with a breezy north-west wind, but no precipitation is expected. We’ll cool down into the minus twenties on Tuesday night, but those cold temperatures will be short-lived.

Wednesday

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy. Chance of Flurries. Risk of Freezing Rain or Ice Pellets.
2°C / -18°C

By Wednesday a powerful low pressure system will send warm air cascading across the Prairies. The cold air from Wednesday morning will be scoured out from Southern Manitoba by the afternoon as temperatures rise above zero in most areas. However, this warm air will be accompanied by very strong winds. Southerly winds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h in the morning will switch to westerly winds of 40-50km/h gusting to 60-70km/h in the afternoon. These warm temperatures should make the snow more difficult to blow around, though some blowing is possible in the morning before we warm up.

Some light snow will be possible on Wednesday in association with this low pressure system. Larger snowfall amounts will be possible if the system tracks further south than currently expected. In addition to the snow, there may even be a bit of freezing rain or ice pellets because that warm air may melt snowflakes as they descend from the clouds. Unfortunately, the cold front associated with this low will pass through on Wednesday night, sending in colder air for Thursday.

Thursday and Beyond

Warmer than normal weather is being forecast by the NAEFS model for the second half of January
Warmer than normal weather is being forecast by the NAEFS model for the second half of January

Thursday looks to be our coldest day for the next while, with high temperatures near -20C and gusty winds making it feel much cooler. However, besides Thursday It appears we will continue to see temperatures near or slightly above normal for the next while. Long range models continue to suggest that the second half of January will be warmer than normal, though we will still likely see the odd cold day here or there. No major weather systems are in the forecast, but this pattern will probably continue to send a parade of clipper systems coming out of Alberta, bringing the chance for light snow every few days.

Snow Ushers In Brutal Cold Snap

Snow will the the story today as another system moves across Manitoba bringing close to 10cm to Winnipeg and lesser amounts southwards towards the International Border. The warm temperatures that we’ll see today will quickly be replaced by one of the most unpleasant cold snaps of the year; while temperatures won’t be the coldest we’ve seen, they’ll be coupled with a strong wind that will produce some of the coldest feeling weather of the winter.

Friday

-11°C / -23°C
5-10cm of snow. Windy with blowing snow in the morning and evening.
Saturday

-22°C / -33°C
Sunny, windy and very cold.
Sunday

-27°C / -30°C
Mainly sunny. Extremely cold.

Friday: Snow & Blowing Snow


Snowfall accumulations aross Southern Manitoba; totals for the period of Thursday night through Friday evening.
Snowfall accumulations aross Southern Manitoba; totals for the period of Thursday night through Friday evening.

Snow will be the story today as a pair of low pressure systems move in tandem through Manitoba; one in the Northern half of the province and the other travelling near the United States border. They will work together to produce an extremely wide swath of snow that covers nearly the entire province. The heaviest snow will track through the “usual” suspects: Parkland Manitoba (particularly near Dauphin) SE through the Southern Interlake and then off towards Pinawa and into NW Ontario.

Along the axis of heaviest snow, around 10–15cm will fall, with the higher amounts closer to the Ontario border thanks to the merging of the two low pressure systems. Winnipeg will sit right on the southern edge of the axis of heaviest snow, so we’ll likely see total amounts by this evening very close to 10cm. Amounts will taper off relatively quickly as one goes south; areas near the U.S. border will see only around 2–5cm of snow.

In tandem with the snow will be mild temperatures and strong winds. Here in Winnipeg the temperature will climb to a comparatively balmy –11 or –10°C while temperatures in the Southern Red River Valley may see as high as –5 or –4°C. These warm temperatures will be ushered in by the strong winds we’re seeing this morning out of the south at around 40km/h with gusts to 60km/h. This wind will produce blowing snow in open areas of the Red River Valley this morning which will produce near-zero visibilities. As is usual, highways running west-east will be hardest hit. The wind will taper off midday and we’ll see a fairly pleasant afternoon with some light snow, mild temperatures and light winds.

Things will deteriorate quickly in the evening as the cold front slumps southwards. Extremely cold air will begin pushing into the Red River Valley as winds pick up out of the northwest to 30–40km/h with gusts as high as 60km/h. This, combined with the freshly fallen snow, will produce widespread blowing snow through much of the Red River Valley through the evening and overnight hours. Visibilites will be near-zero in some areas and, in general, highway travel will be difficult. If you need to travel tomorrow night, carry a winter survival kit and give yourself lots of time to reach your destination.

Brutal Cold Returns for the Weekend

The GDPS 850mb temperatures show an extremely cold Arctic air mass moving over Southern Manitoba this weekend.
The GDPS 850mb temperatures show an extremely cold Arctic air mass moving over Southern Manitoba this weekend.

After the snow and wind moves out tonight, we’ll be left with absolutely brutal cold moving into the region. Although the temperatures won’t be quite as cold as the last shot we got, they’ll be paired with winds in the range of 15–30km/h which will make it feel significantly colder. The temperature will slowly fall all day Saturday from whatever it is in the morning (close to –22°C or so) until we hit our overnight low on Saturday night of around –33°C. Combined with the wind, it will feel closer to around –45 by early sunday morning.

Sunday will see temperatures recover to around –26°C thanks to a little bit of cloud pushing back into the region from the north. Winds will be 15–20km/h mainly out of the west. We’ll drop to around -32°C on Sunday night under mainly clear skies.

The brutal winter of 2013/14 continues.