Tuesday’s Cool, Showery End Leads to Warmer Weather

One last band of showers will move through on Tuesday evening, capping off a cool June day. Fortunately, warmer weather will return for the rest of the week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday June 20, 2024
Despite the cooler Tuesday, early-summer warmth will return for the second half of the week.

Another upper-level disturbance will cross southern Manitoba later today and bring another wave of showers across the Red River Valley. This will cap off a day where temperatures struggle to get past the mid-teens as northerly winds and cloudy skies stay entrenched over the area.

Fortunately the winds will ease tonight with clearing skies as a broad area of high pressure spreads east across the Prairies. Temperatures will dip down into the 5–10 °C range once the showers clear out.

For Wednesday and Thursday, more pleasant conditions will return as a west-southwest flow redevelops across the region. Daytime highs will climb into the low 20s on Wednesday, then into the mid-20s for Thursday. Winds will pick up out of the west into the 20–30 km/h range on Wednesday, ease, then pick up out of the south into the 20–30 km/h range on Thursday.

Both days will bring a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms to the region, but they will likely be focused along a west-east trough line that will likely set up from western Manitoba across the southern Interlake region. It’s unlikely that Winnipeg will see any of that activity and both days should be pleasant in the city.

Long Range Outlook

Looking further ahead, cloudier skies will likely return to the region on Friday. A deep upper trough developing over western North America will support the development of a low pressure system over the American Plains that will then lift northeast later Friday into the weekend.

This system would likely bring a wave of thunderstorms and showers to southern Manitoba on Friday night into Saturday, with the worst weather ending Saturday morning and cooler, showery conditions possible afterwards.

Daytime highs would likely sit in the mid-20s on Friday, drop to around 20 °C on Saturday, then bounce back up to the mid-20s on Sunday. This system could produce another notable rainfall across southern Manitoba with localized accumulations of 30 to 60 mm possible.

Sunshine should return on Sunday, making for a nice end the weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.

Warm, Humid, and Unsettled Weekend Ahead

Southern Manitoba will see humid conditions develop this weekend as a warm and unsettled pattern develops over the region.

RDPS 2m Dew Point Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday June 15, 2024
Humid conditions will develop across southern Manitoba on Saturday.

To end the work week, an area of high pressure will gradually shift east out of the province through the day. This will bring a warm and settled day to the region with a high in the 25 to 30 °C range and partly cloudy skies. Southerly winds will begin to pick up later in the day and mark the beginning of the weather pattern that will persist through the weekend.

An upper trough will dig southwards over western North America through the weekend; this will support a prolonged southerly flow at the surface while disturbances eject northeast across the region over the next few days.

Humid Weather Arrives This Weekend

The southerly winds at the surface will draw heat and humidity northwards through the weekend. Daytime highs won’t be excessive through the weekend, likely in the mid-20s, but the region will likely see its first surge of humid conditions.

The humidity will be comfortable today with dew points in the low teens, but more humid conditions will quickly develop on Saturday. Dew point values will climb into the mid- to upper teens on Saturday, then hover in the 16 to 20 °C range overnight Saturday, then increase towards 20 °C ahead of a cold front on Sunday. As the cold front sweeps through on Sunday afternoon, drier air will sweep into the region and bring relief.

The humidity will keep temperatures warm on Saturday night with overnight lows in the 18 to 22 °C range across many parts of southern Manitoba.

Stormy Conditions Possible

Weather-wise, there will be several chances for stormy weather through the weekend. The first disturbance will be a weak area of low pressure that pushes into southern Manitoba tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the second half of the night into Saturday morning.

The activity will taper off on Saturday afternoon, then another disturbance will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region on Saturday evening and overnight. Sunday will be more settled, but there will be a low chance of showers or thunderstorms with the cold front as it sweeps east.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will start unsettled as the deep upper trough remains over western North America. Waves of rain and thunderstorms will be possible across southern Manitoba on Monday and Tuesday, then more settled conditions will move in for the middle of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.

Unsettled Week Leads to Warm Weekend

Winnipeg will see a few more days of unsettled conditions, but the weather will settle heading into the weekend as temperatures climb into the upper 20s.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday June 12, 2024
A sharp warm front will move into southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

To start things off today, showers that moved in overnight will continue to track east out of the region. There may be a few sunny breaks this morning, but more cloud will spread into the region for midday. An upper low moving into the province this afternoon will destabilize things and bring a chance for a few showers or thundershowers. Temperatures will climb to a high in the low 20s with morning southerlies easing followed by moderate westerlies picking up to 40 gusting 60 km/h in the afternoon.

The cloud cover will break up tonight with temperatures dipping down to around 10 °C as winds ease. There may be a low chance for a few passing showers overnight.

On Wednesday, another low developing over the western Prairies will push a warm front across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will climb back into the low to mid-20s in Winnipeg and other areas along and south of the front, while cloudier and cooler temperatures stick around for areas north. Heading into the afternoon, though, this front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. This feature will bring higher levels of energy to the region to fuel thunderstorms; MLCAPE — mixed-layer CAPE, a measure of energy available for a thunderstorm to use — will climb to around 1,000 J/kg and be coupled with 40 to 50 knots of deep layer wind shear. These values will combine to bring a risk of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms to southern Manitoba on Wednesday afternoon.

This activity will taper off heading into the night, though isolated showers could linger into the early morning hours of Thursday. Temperatures will dip down into the low teens.

On Thursday, an upper low will track across southern Manitoba. It will bring temperatures back down to the low 20s in Winnipeg along with mixed skies and a chance of showers. Skies will clear up on Thursday night with temperatures heading down into the low teens again.

Long Range Outlook

The weather will finally settle down on Friday with sunnier skies as an area of high pressure crosses the province. Warmer air will begin building into the region on Friday with daytime highs climbing back into the mid-20s.

A deep southerly flow will develop for the weekend, ushering more heat and moisture northwards. This will help push temperatures into the mid- to upper-20s with dew points rising into the mid-teens. While not anything that will feel overly humid or sticky, the humidity will be more noticeable than it has for most of the year so far.

Unfortunately, this push of warmer weather looks likely to bring more chances for showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for multiple waves of showers or thunderstorms to push across southern Manitoba.

Cooler, more settled conditions are likely to start next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.

Seasonably Cool and Unsettled for a Few More Days

Cool and unsettled weather will continue across southern Manitoba into the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday June 7, 2024
Seasonal daytime highs in the low 20s will be in place across the southern Prairies today.

A slow-moving upper low will continue to impact the region today as it slumps southeast out of Saskatchewan. It will bring breezy westerly winds to the region as highs climb to around 20 °C. Like yesterday, morning sun will give way to afternoon cloud as another weak disturbance ripples through the region. It will bring a chance of showers or thunderstorms to much of southern Manitoba, but the Parkland and Interlake regions will see the most of the activity.

The convective showers will taper off this evening and skies will clear. Temperatures will head down to a low near 10 °C with light winds.

On Saturday, the upper low will move through southern Manitoba. Temperatures will again head to a high near 20 °C but winds will be lighter than they will be today. A sunny start will turn to mixed skies with a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Everything will clear out with the lowering evening sun, then temperatures will head to a low in the 5 to 10 °C range.

On Sunday, another sunny start will give way to mixed to cloudy skies as a hang-back trough from the departing upper low swings through. It doesn’t look like there will be much of a chance of showers, but it will be a cool day. Daytime highs in the region will reach into the 15 to 20 °C range with north winds at 20 to 30 km/h. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, skies should clear out for Sunday night as lows head down into the single-digits.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will likely bring a return to seasonal temperatures, but there will be a series of disturbances that bring more wet weather to southern Manitoba:

  • On Monday night, a low pressure system moving into the region from North Dakota could bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to southern Manitoba. This system could bring a variable 10 to 40 mm to the region.
  • A disturbance clipping through the region on Wednesday could bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms to central and southern Mantioba.
  • …and again on Thursday, though at this point it looks like any precipitation should stay north of Winnipeg.
  • And then looking irresponsibly far out, another convective system from the United States could move into the region on Saturday into Sunday, bringing moderate rainfall to parts of the province in showers and thunderstorms.

No dry stretches in the forecast for our area anytime soon! As long as the rate of moisture accrual stays manageable, this could be a positive stretch of weather for many. Moisture is available for germinating plants, we’re not being roasted too early in the year, the frequent showers and seasonably cool conditions are helping fire conditions across the province, and the replenishment of groundwater will help areas of the province that have had to resort to water restrictions at times in recent years due to limited water supply.

We’ll be back next week; have a great weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.