Generally Mild Conditions Ahead

While today will start off with some showers as cold fronts usher the above-freezing temperatures out of the region, conditions will remain generally mild with near-seasonal to above-seasonal temperatures expected over the coming week.

Winnipeg will see a mild start to the day with temperatures near +3°C, but that warmth will be short-lived. A cold front sweeping through early this morning will bring a band of showers across southern Manitoba. This front will usher in breezy westerly winds near 30 km/h with gusts up to around 50 km/h. The showers should taper off behind the front, but a second cold front will then drop southwards in the afternoon, bringing with it flurries as the winds shift northwesterly and temperatures drop further to around -1°C by the evening. The flurries will taper off in the evening as the breaks up a bit, leaving mixed skies for the night. Winds will taper off as temperatures drop to a low near -9°C.

An area of showers will move across southern Manitoba early this morning

Saturday will bring light winds as a ridge of high pressure moves across the Red River Valley, likely with a bit of morning sunshine. Cloud will build back eastwards into Winnipeg in the afternoon though, as the front that dipped southwards through the Red River Valley rebounds to the west and begins pushing back into the Red River Valley again. No snow or rain is expected in the Red River Valley; any precipitation will be further north, close to a low pressure system crossing through central Manitoba. Temperatures will climb towards a high near -2°C as the cloud moves into the region, and winds will pick up out of the south to around 20 km/h. Expect skies to remain mostly cloudy on Saturday night with temperatures remaining near -2 or -1°C for much of the evening, then dropping to a low near -5°C overnight as a weak cold front slumps through, shifting winds northwesterly and bringing in cooler air.

Sunday will bring mostly cloudy skies to the region yet again as temperatures remain steady near -4°C for much of the day. Another ridge of high pressure will be moving across the province, so winds will remain light throughout the day. Skies will remain cloudy on Sunday night as another warm front approaches from the west. Temperatures will climb towards -1°C by Monday morning with increasing southerly winds to 20 to 30 km/h.

Long Range Outlook

Looking ahead, Monday looks mild but may bring rain or snow to the region as another significant low pressure system crosses through the central Prairies. Afterwards, a zonal flow persists over the Prairies bringing multiple disturbances through the week that will bring occasional chances for flurries. Temperatures will remain near-seasonal to above normal, with relatively mild temperatures expected to remain in place for much of next week!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -5°C while the seasonal overnight low is -13°C.

Unsettled Climb Towards Warmer Weather

Temperature will trend towards the milder side over the coming few days in Winnipeg as an upper-level ridge builds into the eastern Prairies. The warmer weather will come at a cost, though, with sunshine becoming somewhat of a scarce commodity in the second half of the work week.

Today will start off with skies clouding over quite early as an upper-level disturbance slides southeastwards from Dauphin into the southern Red River Valley. As it moves through, it will spread an area of light snow through the Parkland, across southwestern Manitoba, and into the southern Red River Valley. Winnipeg will be on the northeastern edge of the main area of snow and will see some non-accumulating light snow. Under the main snow track, snow will still be fairly light, with just 1 to 2 cm expected to fall. The snow will taper off in the afternoon as temperatures reach a high near -7°C, then skies will clear out in the evening as temperatures head to a low near -14 or -15°C.

NAM Forecast Precipitation Rate & Type valid 15Z Wednesday November 22, 2017
Some light snow will clip across southern Manitoba this morning

Thursday will see cloudy skies move into the Red River Valley early in the morning as a warm front pushes eastwards into the province. Temperatures will climb back to near-seasonal values through the day, reaching near -3°C by late afternoon. Those warmer temperatures will also come with increasing southerly winds increasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the afternoon. Skies will remain cloudy overnight with temperatures continue to rise, reaching +1°C or so by Friday morning. Winds will ease slightly to around 20 km/h for the night after the warm front passes through.

NAM Forecast Precipitation Rate & Type valid 12Z Wednesday November 24, 2017
NAM Forecast Precipitation Rate & Type valid 12Z Wednesday November 24, 2017

Friday will be very mild in Winnipeg with temperatures reaching a high near +3 or +4°C. Showers will be possible as a cold front sweeps through in the morning, ushering in breezier westerlies of 30 to 40 km/h. The chance of showers will continue into to the afternoon, then switch to light snow as a second trough of low pressure swings through. After that, winds will switch to the northwest at around 40 gusting 60 km/h and temperatures will begin falling back below freezing to a low near -8°C with flurries and breezy northwesterlies continuing.

Long Range Outlook

Taking a quick look ahead to the weekend, it looks like Winnipeg will see near-seasonal temperatures with variable cloudiness. Saturday should see some sunshine while Sunday may see more of a mixed to mainly cloudy sky. All in all, relatively pleasant for late November!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -4°C while the seasonal overnight low is -12°C.

Alberta Clipper Brings Mild Temperatures Quickly Followed By Windy Blast of Arctic Air

An Alberta clipper tracking across the province will bring above-freezing temperatures to Winnipeg today, but strong northwesterlies will usher in colder temperatures this evening that will remain in place for much of the week.

Mild temperatures are on the way today as an Alberta clipper tracking through the Interlake spreads above-freezing temperatures along and south of the Trans-Canada corridor. Temperatures will reach a high near +1°C this afternoon with some rain showers developing across portions of the Red River Valley. Winds will shift from southerly near 20 km/h to westerly at 30 gusting to 50 km/h mid-afternoon, and then shift to northwesterly behind a cold front that sweeps through between 5 and 7PM, ushering in strong winds of 40-50 km/h with gusts up to 70 km/h. By then, any precipitation will switch over and fall as snow. Although snowfall is not expected to be particularly intense, the combination of snow with strong northerly winds will likely produce some areas of reduced visibility in blowing snow.

RPDS 10m Wind Forecast valid 03Z Tuesday November 21, 2017
Strong northwesterly winds of 40-50 km/h will develop over the Red River Valley on Monday evening

With the northwesterly winds, temperatures will rapidly plummet in the evening, going from near +1°C at 5PM to -7 or -8°C by midnight. This rapid drop in temperatures combined with light snow and strong winds will result in a rapid freeze, likely producing slippery roads and poor driving conditions. If you must travel tonight, be sure to give yourself extra time, drive safely, and ensure you have an emergency car kit with you. Any remaining light snow will taper off towards early Tuesday morning as temperatures head to a low near -10°C.

Tuesday will see morning northwesterlies near 30 gusting 50 km/h gradually taper off through the day as a ridge of high pressure moves in. Temperatures will be cool with highs near -7°C under mixed skies. Even cooler air will move in on Tuesday night as the ridge of high pressure moves into the Red River Valley, sending lows into the -15 to -20°C range, depending on exactly how much cloud cover remains in the region.

Winnipeg will see cloudy periods on Wednesday as a weak upper-level disturbance bringing a few light flurries to south-western Manitoba spreads cloud into the Red River Valley. Winds will continue to be light under the ridge of high pressure and temperatures will reach a high near -7°C once again. Expect clear skies and a low near -14°C on Wednesday night.

Long Range Outlook

The remainder of the week looks cool for the most part; a low tracking across the central Prairies on Friday will bring mild temperatures once again, but cooler temperatures crash back southwards in the northwesterlies behind the system on Friday night. Cooler temperatures look to stick around through the weekend into next week under variable cloudiness.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -3°C while the seasonal overnight low is -12°C.

Cooler Temperatures Ahead with Chance of Flurries

Slightly below-normal temperatures are on the way for the coming few days alongside variable cloudiness, but above-seasonal warmth may be poised to return next week.

Today will be marked by westerly winds behind a cold front that will usher any remaining flurries out of the region and bring sunshine back to the region. Temperatures will slide through the day to around -7°C by this evening as cooler air slumps into the region as winds gradually diminish. A bit of cloud will move through overnight, bringing a slight chance of some scattered flurries, as temperatures dip to a low near -11°C.

RDPS Forecast 2m Temperature valid 12Z Friday November 17, 2017
A cold front will sweep through the Red River Valley this morning, ushering in cooler temperatures

Saturday will see partly cloudy skies as a ridge of high pressure builds eastwards across the Prairies. Winds will pick up early in the day out of the northwest at 20 to 30 km/h, backing towards the west in the afternoon before tapering off as the ridge approaches in the evening. Temperatures will be cool with a high near -8°C. Temperatures will be quite cool on Saturday night as the main ridge axis moves into the Red River Valley. There will be a chance of some light lake-effect precipitation, but will be quite dependant of if there’s enough open water remaining to produce snow.

Lows will depend significantly on how much cloud ends up in the region. While skies are expected to be generally clear, but some cloud will begin building into Manitoba from the west as a warm front sets up in eastern Saskatchewan. Should skies cloud up earlier, lows near -13 or -14°C seem reasonable; should it remain clear all night, temperatures could dip as low as -20 or -21°C. At this point, we’re going to go with an answer somewhere in the middle, with cloud pushing in through the second half of the night and a low near -17°C.

Sunday, at this point, looks like a cloudier morning will give way to a sunnier afternoon. A daytime high near -5°C will be slightly warmer than Saturday as the coldest air moves into Ontario. Winds will be light, making for a relatively pleasant November day. Expect a low near -9°C with increasing cloud on Sunday night.

Long Range Outlook

A low crossing the northern Prairies will bring more cloud and highs back towards 0°C for Monday, followed by a moderate northwesterly wind and the return of cooler weather for Tuesday. After that, things start getting pretty hazy, and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of predictability on which way things will go. The trend appears to be towards a period of above-seasonal temperatures with near-normal precipitation, but we’ll have to wait until a little more consensus appears on how likely that will actually be. That said, it appears the cold snap that defined November’s start has come to an end…for now!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -11°C.