Weather Forecasts, Facts and News for Winnipeg & Southern Manitoba
Author: Brad
Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.
In the wake of yesterday’s cold front that brought some wild weather to Manitoba yesterday afternoon & evening, conditions will be significantly more benign as a ridge of high pressure moves into the Red River Valley and brings dry weather with seasonal temperatures.
There is not too much to say for today’s forecast post. Mainly sunny skies will dominate the region today as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the northwest behind yesterday’s cold from that moved across the region.
A ridge of high pressure aligned through Saskatchewan into southwestern Manitoba will bring benign weather to the region.
Winds will be breezy at 20-30 km/h first thing this morning, but will fairly quickly taper off into the 15-20 km/h range. Winds will remain light through Wednesday.
Temperatures will be fairly steady with daytime highs around 23-24°C all 3 days. Overnight lows will be cool, in the 9-11°C range on Monday night and Tuesday night, however slightly milder air begins working in on Wednesday night, bumping the overnight low up towards the mid-teens.
No precipitation is expected. Skies will be mainly sunny both today & Tuesday, however a little more cloud is expected on Wednesday, with sunny skies likely giving way to more mixed conditions in the afternoon.
Long Range
The second half of the week looks to bring warmer conditions back into the region with daytime highs climbing back towards the 27 or 28°C mark with variable cloudiness. Friday evening into Saturday looks to be the first chance of any more precipitation, with thunderstorms possible. At this point, it looks most likely that they would occur overnight into Saturday morning.
So a very pleasant week ahead with little precipitation; it’s nice to finally give some good news!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 22°C while the seasonal overnight low is 9°C.
Seasonal to slightly above-seasonal temperatures are on the way to Winnipeg this weekend alongside a couple chances for rain as a couple low pressure systems move through the province.
Today will be a relatively pleasant day in Winnipeg as sunny skies give way to some afternoon cloudiness as temperatures climb to around 25°C. Winds will be out of there south at 15-20 km/h. Expect a low near 13°C tonight with increasing cloudiness near morning.
A low pressure system will move but on Saturday, bringing fairly cloudy conditions and a chance of showers. Temperatures will reach a high near 23°C with winds out of the south at 20 km/h. Depending on the strength of this system, a few thundershowers may be possible, but no severe weather is expected at this time.
A low pressure system will bring warmer weather to Winnipeg on Sunday
Sunday will be a much warmer day as a low pressure system tracking across the central Prairies draws air up from the south. Daytime highs will reach around 28°C work winds continuing out of the south at around 20-30 km/h. Skies will be partly cloudy, but the cloud cover will thicken up heading into the evening hours as a trough extending southwards from the low pressure system approaches. This feature will bring a chance for showers or thunderstorms Sunday evening into the overnight. Temperatures will remain miles on Sunday night with the temperature hovering near 20°C until late overnight when a cold front moves through and stops the temperature towards the mid-teens.
Update: Severe Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday
The threat for severe thunderstorms will return to Winnipeg, the Red River Valley, the Interlake and points eastwards as a warm and relatively humid air mass building in over the region clashes with a cold front pushing eastwards across the province later today.
AWM Day 1 Convective Outlook – August 28, 2016
Today’s thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front pushing into the Interlake & Red River Valley late this afternoon, likely around 6-7 PM. These thunderstorms will likely grow fairly quickly a complex of severe thunderstorms that will move east-southeastwards with new storms developing as they build southwards down the cold front. These thunderstorms will be capable of all modes of severe weather: torrential downpours causing flash flooding, large & damaging hail, wind gusts exceeding 100 km/h, and tornadoes. It will be prudent to monitor Environment Canada for any watches or warnings that may be issued later today.
MoistureInstability: Ample instability is expected to develop ahead of the cold front with MLCAPE values approaching 4000 J/kg. This will be capped by roughly 30-50J, but is expected to erode through the mid-to-late afternoon. The cap brings the only uncertainty to today: will it break and produce surface based thunderstorms with a tornado threat, or will it prevail and shift the convection to an elevated mode that will favour large hail and strong winds?
Shear: With a potent upper low entering northern Manitoba and dynamic cold front moving through the region, 40-55 *kt* of bulk shear produced with looping hodographs.
Trigger: The cold front combined with forcing from the escarpment should be enough to initiate convection today.
The thunderstorms will progress across the region through the overnight hours.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 23°C while the seasonal overnight low is 10°C.
Significantly cooler weather will move into the Winnipeg area as a major low pressure system that brought a bevy of severe thunderstorms to Western & Interlake Manitoba yesterday pushes eastwards through over the coming days.
Today’s weather will be dominated by a large upper-level low moving across Southern Manitoba. This morning will start off mainly sunny through the Red River Valley as the system’s dry slot moves through, but as the day progresses cloud will build into the region from the northwest. Along with the cloud will come widespread shower activity that will persist well into the evening hours.
Temperatures will be much cooler than yesterday as a westerly wind of 20-30km/h that strengthens to 30 gusting 50km/h in the evening ushers in cooler air from the north. Temperatures will reach a high near 22 or 23°C today and head to a low near 12°C tonight. The shower activity across the Red River Valley should taper off late overnight.
Thursday will be another cool day with mixed skies and a daytime high near 20°C. There will be a slight chance of a light isolated shower as the remaining instability is flushed out of the region, but nothing significant is expected. Temperatures will be cool on Thursday night as they dip to around 9°C under mainly clear skies.
The RDPS is forecasting a total of 2-5mm of rain through the RRV by Thursday morning.Friday will begin to see warmer air return as a system slumping towards Manitoba from the northwest drags some warmer air back towards the region with it. Winds will be breezy out of the south to southwest at around 20-30 km/h as temperatures climb into the mid-20’s. Skies will be partly cloudy, with thicker cloud cover building in through the evening. Expect a low overnight near 13°C.
Looking Ahead to The Weekend
The coming weekend is looking fairly pleasant with plenty of sunshine, warm temperatures in the mid- to upper-20’s and very chances of rain as weather disturbances track to our north across Central Manitoba and to our south through the Dakotas.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 24°C while the seasonal overnight low is 10°C.
The weather is taking an abrupt turn today as significantly cooler air moves into Southern Manitoba behind the low pressure system that brought numerous thunderstorms to Winnipeg & area on Wednesday night.
Today will see unseasonably cool temperatures as a high pressure system moving into Manitoba draws air from the Arctic and ushers it southwards into the province. The cool air, coupled with the August sun, will result in plenty of cloud and some scattered showers through the afternoon. With a northwesterly wind of 20-30 km/h, temperatures will climb to a high near 20°C.
Skies will remain fairly cloudy tonight as cool air continues to push southwards. For areas in the western Red River Valley, it appears that the Arctic air will trigger some lake-effect showers that will move southwards off of Lake Manitoba. There’s a lesser chance that similar showers will develop off of the south basin of Lake Winnipeg as well. Winnipeg will end up tucked between the two and should remain dry for much of the night. Expect overnight lows to dip down to around 8 or 9°C.
The bright green swath over the western RRV shows the expected lake-effect showers on Friday night.
Saturday will be a drier day with the cool weather continuing. Daytime highs will climb to around the 19°C mark under mixed skies. Skies will clear out for Saturday night for another cool one with overnight lows near 8°C.
Sunday will return to closer to seasonal temperatures with highs near 24°C under mainly sunny skies. There will be a bit of cloud moving through later in the day as warmer air begins moving into the region, but no precipitation is expected in the Red River Valley with it at this point.
So, while it will be cooler, we’ll get a short break from the severe weather threat that has been so frequent the past few weeks across Southern Manitoba. Next week looks like a bit of a mixed bag with dry, warm weather through the first half of the week being replaced by cooler, more unsettled weather in the second half.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 24°C while the seasonal overnight low is 11°C.
