Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Fantastic Weekend In Store

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We’ll see a beautiful weekend ahead of us as an upper ridge holds strong bringing sunny skies and warm temperatures to the Red River Valley.

Friday

30°C / 15°C
Chance of morning showers, then mainly sunny & a little humid.
Saturday

27°C / 12°C
Cloudy periods.
Sunday

23°C / 15°C
Increasing cloudiness through the day.

We’ll start today off with some cloud around and a chance of some shower activity in the Winnipeg area along a weak warm front, but that should clear out fairly quickly and we’ll be left with mainly sunny skies as we climb to a high of around 30°C. The humidity will become a little noticeable by the afternoon as a strong capping inversion in place will trap moisture given off by plants near the surface; as a result it will feel a little more sticky than it has as of late, but it shouldn’t be uncomfortable. The warmest air will slump southwards into North Dakota tonight as we drop down to a low of around 15°C with light northerly winds kicking in.

Saturday will bring a few cloudy periods as we climb to a high of around 27°C. Temperatures will drop to the low teens on Saturday night under clear skies.

Things will begin to deteriorate on Sunday with cloud cover pushing in through the day as we hit a high of 23°C or so. Sunday night looks cloudy with a chance of showers or thunderstorms reaching the Red River Valley by early Monday morning. The low will be around 15°C.

Next Week

Forecast precipitation for Sunday night to Monday evening from the GDPS.

Forecast precipitation for Sunday night to Monday evening from the GDPS.

Monday looks to be the most active day next week as a low pressure system lifts out of South Dakota northeastwards into the Lake of the Wood region. This system will be tapping into moist air to it’s south and lifting it northwards and around the backside of the low which, if things go as planned, will result in one of the most widespread rainfalls we’ve seen in a while. Some models are moving towards a more convective solution, though, where a narrow but intense band of thunderstorms will cut a swath through somewhere in the Red River Valley. We’ll have to wait and see, but at this point it certainly looks like Monday will be at least a cloudy, if not rainy, day with temperatures in the low 20’s.

The rest of the week will see some sun and some cloud with temperatures returning to above-normal values in the mid–20’s. A few weak disturbances may create a bout or two of scattered showers or thunderstorms through the week, but at this point nothing significant is in the picture.

Beautiful Week Ahead

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The “better late than never” summer that’s arrived in Winnipeg, while tempered after the cold front that pushed through late last week, will continue to bring beautiful weather to Southern Manitoba at least through the rest of this week, and likely into the next.

Wednesday

23°C / 9°C
Mainly sunny.
Thursday

31°C / 15°C
Mainly sunny.
Friday

30°C / 16°C
Sunny with some cloudy periods.

Today will be the coolest day of the next few as we remain in the cooler air behind a cold front that pushed through yesterday afternoon. The good thing is that our expected high of 23°C is still above our average high for this time of year, which sits around 21°C. We’ll have one more chilly night as temperatures dip just down into the single digits, bottoming out around 8 or 9°C.

A very hot air mass will push into Southern Manitoba on Thursday, rocketing our temperatures into the low 30’s. I think we’ll just creep over said mark, topping out at 31°C, however some guidance does suggest highs closer to 33 or 34°C. While some areas in Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan have seen the mid–30’s with this air mass, it looks to cool just a tad as it pushes eastwards. Some areas along the western escarpment of the Red River Valley may see temperatures bump up a few degrees higher thanks to some extra heating from down-sloping winds.

There’s a very slight chance of some showers or thunderstorms on Thursday night as a weak cold front slumps southwards. Whether or not they happen will end up depending on exactly how sharp that cold front ends up being. If it remains rather diffuse then little activity would be expected. The GFS model develops an area of showers and thunderstorms that moves through our region on Thursday night, but it has the sharpest front of all the models. The greatest risk for anything will be through the Interlake region, should anything happen.

Friday will be a little bit cooler than Thursday but will still see daytime highs pushing close to 29 or 30°C. There will be a few cloudy periods, particularly through the afternoon hours, but will be a very nice day.

Through the whole week the dew points will remain relatively low, making the heat this week significantly more comfortable than the heat last week.

The Weekend

At this point the weekend looks warm but potentially unsettled, with the risk for showers or thunderstorms increasing through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Temperatures will remain fairly mild though with daytime highs in the mid–20’s.

Weekend to Bring A Break From The Heat

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Slightly cooler weather will move in this weekend behind a low pressure system forecast to move through tonight and tomorrow. In addition to the cooler temperatures, this system will bring a chance of rain and thunderstorms to the Red River Valley.

Tonight & Tomorrow

Friday

27°C / 18°C
Increasingly cloudy; risk of a thunderstorm late in the afternoon into the evening. Humid.

We’ll see gradually increasing cloud today as the surface trough associated with a low pressure system pushing into the northern Interlake approaches. There may be some ongoing thunderstorm activity along the trough this morning as it pushes through SW Manitoba and that threat will move eastwards into the Red River Valley by the late afternoon or early evening. A southerly wind ahead of the trough coupled with a capping inversion will draw moisture northwards once again and trap it near the surface, making for another hot, sticky day here in Winnipeg. Our high temperature will only climb to around 27 or 28°C, though, thanks to the increasing cloudiness through the day. That hot, humid weather will bring the threat for thunderstorms – potentially severe – late in the afternoon into the evening hours. At this point, it seems like somewhere between 8PM and 11PM seems like the most likely time for seeing any potential storm activity. After that we’ll see our temperature drop to around 18°C under a partly cloudy sky.

Saturday

25°C / 12°C
Becoming cloudy, good chance of showers or thundershowers. Humid again.

Saturday will be another humid day as we remain in the moist air mass ahead of the cold front. We’ll see a fairly good chance of showers or thundershowers beginning later in the morning and through the afternoon. Skies will start off as a mix of sun and cloud but should become fairly cloudy in the afternoon as things become more unstable with the approaching cold front. We’ll see a high of around 25°C which will mark the last day in our hot, muggy air mass. The threat for showers or thunderstorms will persist until the cold front passes.

500mb Winds for Saturday Afternoon

500mb winds forecast by the NAM show an intense upper-level low pushing into Southern Manitoba which may be the catalyst for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and evening.

The cold front will push through overnight, bringing northwesterly winds that will clear out much of the moisture and drop us to a comparatively cool 12°C for an overnight low with clearing skies.

Sunday & Holiday Monday

Sunday

23°C / 8°C
Sunny. Cooler and much less humid.
Monday

25°C / 13°C
Sunny and warm.

Sunday and Labour Day Monday look absolutely beautiful. Sunday will be slightly cool with a high of only around 23°C and lead into a chilly night with a low dropping into the single digits bottoming out around 8°C. The heat starts to return on Monday with sunny skies continuing as we climb to a mild 25°C.

The Trend Next Week

Looking further into the week, it looks fairly nice overall as the upper ridge begins rebounding back northwards into the Prairies. Highs will push back into the upper 20’s with humidity staying fairly low until late in the week. Things look fairly dry through the first half of the week, with a few weak disturbances bringing the threat for isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms late in the week. For the most part, though, it looks to be a beautiful, warm week. Summer may be late, but it doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere soon!

Hot Weather Continues

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The hot weather in place over the Red River Valley will stick around through the rest of the week, although a few more weak disturbances will bring in a little more cloud alongside the risk of a few showers or thunderstorms.

Wednesday

31°C / 18°C
A mix of sun and cloud. Humid.
Thursday

28°C / 18°C
A mix of sun and cloud. Humid. Slight chance a shower or thunderstorm.
Friday

27°C / 17°C
Mainly sunny. Chance showers or thunderstorms Friday night.

Today

We’ll see another hot and humid day today as temperatures climb into the low 30’s again with dew points hovering around 19–20°C. No precipitation is expected although we’ll see a mix of sun and cloud associated with a weak frontal system that wills be in the area.

Thursday

Tomorrow will be an interesting day; at this point it looks like we’ll see a fair amount of cloud in the morning before clearing out for the afternoon as an area of showers and thunderstorms moves across North Dakota and perhaps portions of the southern Red River Valley. Should this system push further north, there would be a slight chance of showers in the morning here in Winnipeg, but at this point I think that we’ll stay dry. Things will be pleasant in the afternoon as we climb to a high around 28°C before a weak upper-level cold front pushes into the Red River Valley. As it sweeps through in the evening, there will be a chance of some showers or thunderstorms pushing into the Red River Valley alongside it. Most regions in the RRV will see a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening and overnight hours. Things will move out overnight as we drop to a low around 18°C.

Friday

Friday will be a beautiful day with mainly sunny skies and a high around 27°C. The humidity will drop off through the day as we heat up and are able to mix some of the remaining moisture near the surface out. There’s little threat of precipitation until the evening and overnight hours as low-pressure system pushes into Southern Manitoba, where thunderstorms will be possible with this system along a trough that will push through the Red River Valley. Depending on how things set up, there may be a slight risk of a severe thunderstorm with this system, so we’ll be sure to keep an eye on how things are setting up.

The Long Weekend

A preliminary look ahead through the long weekend looks beautiful. Skies should clear on Saturday morning and after that, it looks like nothing but sun, sun and more sun all the way through Monday. Highs look to be in the mid-to-upper 20’s, generally between 25–28°C with overnight lows dipping down to around the 12–13°C mark thanks to significantly less humidity in the air mass behind Friday night’s low pressure system.