Snow on the Way For Winnipeg

Our stretch of beautiful early-November weather will come to an end this week as a low pressure system moves across Southern Manitoba bringing rain and snow and leaving behind more seasonal weather.

A sharp upper trough sitting over the Pacific coast has helped set up a southerly flow throughout most of the Eastern Prairies over the past few days, bringing with it unseasonably warm and dry weather to Winnipeg and the Red River Valley.

Over the past day, however, the trough has moved eastwards and is now situated over the Rocky Mountains. Warm, moist air has been surging northwards out of the trough for the past day or two, bringing plenty of precipitation to Saskatchewan. Currently, a surface low exists in Nebraska, with an inverted trough extending all the way up to the Swan River region. A cold front is sitting in this trough, with a warm front extending across the northern regions of the Manitoba Lakes. In this visible image, the fronts are shown by the cloud/clear sky boundary over Manitoba.

Visible Satellite Image for Prairies
Visible Satellite Image of Southern Prairies/Northern Plains for Tuesday Morning

This system has brought snow to western Saskatchewan, with some areas receiving more than 10cm of snow. The weather station at the Swift Current Airport reported 13cm of snow by 10AM today and a report of 10cm of snow was received from Stewart Valley, located just north of Swift Current. Further north and east of the Swift Current/Cypress Hills regions, most of the precipitation has thus far fallen as rain, however will switch over to snow by this evening. A few pockets of freezing rain have also shown up over east-central regions, close to the fronts.

This whole system will slowly progress eastwards today and tonight, but most of it’s movement will be northwards through the next 36 hours. By tomorrow evening, rain and snow will have moved into Southwestern Manitoba.

Precipitation Accumulations for Wednesday Night
Precipitation Accumulations from the GEM-REG for Wednesday Night; 5-10mm of Rain is expected for the RRV before switching over to Snow on Thursday morning.

On Wednesday night, cold air is injected into this system and it begins to intensify and move off. By Thursday morning, rain will have moved into the RRV, and should switch over to snow relatively early in the morning as the winds back around the the northwest. There may be a slight chance of a brief period of freezing rain as the changeover from rain to snow happens, however I would expect it to be rather unlikely.

Precipitation Accumulations from GEM-GLB for Thursday
Precipitation Accumulation from the GEM-GLB for Thursday.

The possibility exists for 2-5cm of snow in areas close to the International Border and 5-10cm for areas a bit further north, including Winnipeg, on Thursday. Environment Canada will likely issue some sort of notice on Wednesday as a heads up to the first significant snowfall of the season for the RRV.

This system will move out Thursday night at a much quicker pace than it moved into our area. Skies will clear by Friday and we will be left with daytime highs in the -1 to -3 range with light winds.

So get out and enjoy the weather today. Mostly sunny skies should persist through most of the day and the expected daytime high should be around 14 degrees with relatively light winds. Winnipeg has a shot at breaking the record high today; the current daytime high is 14.4 degrees, set in 1923.  Unofficially, Island Lake and Pinawa have both already broken their record highs for today.

So enjoy the warm weather, just don’t forget where you stored your heavier coats!

Rain Rain Rain

After nearly an entire month with no precipitation, this week will bring plenty of rain to the RRV and bring us to the edge of winter.

A powerful low pressure system will move across the RRV tonight and through Tuesday bringing with it plenty of rain.  As the low begins to approach the Ontario border, it will deepen dramatically bring unpleasant conditions to Southern Manitoba.

The rain should begin this evening into the overnight period as the low approaches giving us only about 5-10mm.  As the low passes on Tuesday, winds will shift around to the north and increase to 40 to 50 km/h.  This gusty north wind will whip plenty of rain that will develop along a elongated hang-back trough resulting in blustery, wet conditions amid a dropping temperature through Wednesday.  Total rainfall amounts will probably be in the 15-25mm range, however could be higher in a few places.

Snow looks unlikely for most of the RRV right now, however the rain may switch over to snow for extreme western edges of the RRV on Wednesday as cooler air is able to poke in over the higher terrain.  Accumulations should be somewhat negligible, however.

So, a wet (and soon to be windy) week is ahead of us.  The clouds should clear out Thursday and we will be left with cooler, albeit sunny, weather.

Cool Dry Weather Ahead

Quiet weather will aid farmers as they harvest and do end of year duties.  The rest of us will enjoy pleasant, dry days.

An upper ridge rebounding over Western Canada will continue to block inclement weather over southern Manitoba, diverting it through Northern and Central Manitoba instead.  This ridge will spill some above-normal temperatures into Saskatchewan, and perhaps southwestern Manitoba, however here in the RRV we should stay on the cool side, with our temperatures over the remainder of the week hovering in the 10-15°C range.

For this weekend, a weak cold front pushes across Southern Manitoba bringing with it little-to-no precipitation, but will drop our daytime highs down into the 5-10°C range.

This cooler temperatures will continue until mid-next week when an impulse moving into the central Prairies will likely bring an end to the dry spell we’ve been experiencing the past few weeks, along with a slight chance for us to experience our first shot of winter.  More on that later in the week as things develop a bit more.

Get out and enjoy the nice weather while it lasts!

The Upcoming Week

Sunshine and warm temperatures are the name of the game this week.

There’s not much to say for this week other than enjoy the nice weather.  A broad upper ridge will dominate the weather over the southern Prairies through most of the week.

12Z GEM-REG 500mb Heights & Speed valid 12Z Wednesday Oct 6.

A broad upper ridge sitting over the southern Prairies is bringing temperatures into the low to mid 20’s over Southern Saskatchewan and temperatures near 20 for Southern Manitoba.  This upper ridge will give way to a weak upper trough that will move across the Prairies Tuesday and Wednesday, however any rain associated with it will stay well north of the RRV and not effect our temperatures too much with them being limited only to the high teens.  After the trough moves by, then the upper ridge begins to build back and temperatures should head back into the low 20’s for the week’s end.

A warm and dry outlook is sure to be welcome news for farmers who have been battling waterlogged fields through much of the summer.