Hot Weather Returns

After a period of cool weather over the last while, warmer conditions are set to return.

30C temperatures are expected on Tuesday in Southern Manitoba

The NAM model is predicting that Southern Manitoba will see temperatures of 30C or higher on Tuesday

A ridge of high pressure will build over the Prairies this week, allowing for some of the warmest weather we’ve seen this August to develop. Monday will be a pleasant day, with high temperatures in the mid to upper twenties. By Tuesday many areas should see their first 30C readings this month, as warmer air pushes in from the west.

The ridge will begin to break down on Wednesday and Thursday as a series of impulses move in from the Pacific. These impulses with have one or more low pressure systems associated with them, causing some unsettled weather to start developing over the Prairies later this week. It looks like an easterly flow will develop over Southern Manitoba on Wednesday out ahead of an approaching low. Depending on how the frontal features setup on Wednesday we may or may not see another 30C day. At this point it looks most likely that Wednesday will have temperatures in the upper twenties, rather than thirty, but there is the potential for warmer weather. On Thursday we may see our first risk of thunderstorms in a while as a strong southerly flow draws up more humid air from the south ahead of an approaching low pressure system.

As we move toward the weekend weather models show a series of fairly strong low pressure systems moving through our region. Should these systems develop more or less as predicted it would likely mean a rainy and cool last weekend of August.

More Normal Weather

This week will start with weather that is normal for this time of year – a rarity in what has been a summer of extremes.

Normal weather is expected throughtmid- August

The NAEFS ensemble shows normal weather persisting through mid-August

High temperatures on Monday will be very similar to Sunday, with mid twenties expected. Tuesday will once again feature high temperatures in the mid twenties, with a risk of thunderstorms in border regions ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Any storms that develop on Tuesday will most likely be non-severe, but if dewpoints end up higher than expected a few severe storms may be possible. The wind will shift to northerly on Wednesday, but temperatures will remain fairly unchanged with highs once again in the mid twenties expected.

Models show mid to upper twenties temperatures continuing into late week. Previously it looked like we might end up with a prolonged period of 30C temperatures starting this week, but models have backed off that idea. In general it looks like we’ll stick with slightly above-normal temperatures for much of this week and into the weekend, which means more mid to upper twenties for the forseeable future.