Tag: mbstorm

Pleasant Weekend Weather Arrives

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Temperatures in Winnipeg will climb into the upper teens as the weather turns sunny and warm this weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday April 26, 2025
Mild temperatures will spread across the Prairies this weekend.

Beautiful spring weather will move into southern Manitoba this weekend. A combination of a weak upper ridge sliding into the southern Prairies along with a low pressure system crossing the northern Prairies will push warmer temperatures across the Prairies.

Under sunny skies, temperatures in southern Manitoba will climb into the 15 to 20 °C range this afternoon. An area of high pressure sitting right over southern Manitoba will keep winds light, making for a beautiful afternoon outside. Temperatures will dip down close to the freezing mark tonight; winds will shift out of the south as the area of high pressure drifts southeast of the province through the night.

Saturday will bring more sunshine to the region as temperatures climb into the upper teens. Southerly winds will be more prominent, picking up into the 30 to 40 km/h range. Those winds will ease on Saturday night as cloud cover pushes into the region.

The next disturbance to impact the region will be taking shape over the western United States on Sunday. This will keep skies cloudy over the region through the day and bring a small chance of a rain shower or two to the region. Southerly winds will continue through the day at 20 to 30 km/h as temperatures climb into the mid-teens.

The low pressure system south of the border will take shape on Sunday night as it pushes into the Dakotas. North of its track, showers and/or thunderstorms will spread through the northern United States. North of the border in Manitoba, the chance for rain showers will pick up through the night as temperatures dip into the upper single digits.

Long Range Outlook

Much of the rain with this system is expected to track south of the border, while areas further north see a decreasing chance of precipitation. On Monday, a cold front will sweep south through the region, bringing moderate northerly winds and cooler temperatures. In Winnipeg, temperatures will likely hover near 10 °C with cloudy skies giving way to clearing late in the day.

The rest of the week will bring cool to seasonable temperatures with sunshine giving way to more cloud and another chance of showers. Cooler, sunnier conditions are possible to end next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 14 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +1 °C.

Beautiful Spring Conditions Ahead

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Winnipeg will see a couple beautiful days before seasonal temperatures return to end the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday April 12, 2025
Mild temperatures will spread across the southern Prairies to end the week.

The upper ridge we talked about on Monday has arrived, and temperatures across southern Manitoba are warming up. The region will see breezy southerly winds today up into the 30 to 40 km/h range with mainly sunny skies. Temperatures across southern Manitoba will be much warmer today, with highs in the 15 to 20 °C range in the Red River Valley climbing into the low 20s over the southwest corner of the province. Highs will be cooler wherever lingering snowpack remains, but with dew point values above zero, that snow will be melting quickly.

Temperatures will dip down into the 5 to 10 °C range tonight in Winnipeg.

Saturday will be even more pleasant in Winnipeg with daytime highs again climbing into the 15 to 20 °C range with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light, making for an even nicer afternoon to spend outside than today.

Temperatures will dip down back down into the 0 to +5 °C range on Saturday night with increasing cloudiness.

For Sunday, the big question has been whether Winnipeg would see no precipitation or a lot of precipitation. Weather models have flip flopped as the week progressed, but are finally beginning to hone in on an agreement.

The weather set-up is a complicated one. From the west, a low pressure system will leave southern Alberta and push across southern Saskatchewan beginning Saturday night. From the south, a Colorado Low will form and begin to eject northeast across the American Plains at the same time. The interplay between these two systems is the crux of the weather forecast, and it’s looking more and more likely that most of the system will bypass the Winnipeg area. As the Colorado Low lifts towards Minnesota, the Saskatchewan system will dig south and begin to merge with the CO Low. This will drag the precipitation from Saskatchewan into the Dakotas, while the main precipitation from the CO Low pushes towards NW Ontario and the Great Lakes.

There is a chance that Winnipeg may see a few rain showers or flurries later in the day on Sunday, but at this point no accumulating precipitation looks likely. Much of southern Manitoba will likely avoid most of the precipitation as it falls in Saskatchewan, the Dakotas, and Ontario instead.

Otherwise, temperatures will be seasonably cool on Sunday with a high in the 5 to 10 °C range with northerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h. Skies will stay cloudy into Monday with a low near the freezing mark on Sunday night.

Long Range Outlook

Looking ahead, Monday will bring cloudy and cool conditions again with a slight chance of a rain showers in the afternoon, then the region will see improvement with sunshine and near-seasonal temperatures on Tuesday.

Much of the week looks to bring mixed conditions with a couple nicer days and a couple days with a chance of rain or flurries. By the weekend, it looks like another warm-up with potential highs in the mid- to upper-teens will arrive.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 9 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -2 °C.

Springtime Roller Coaster Sets up Over Southern Manitoba

Brad 1 Comment

Temperatures will be all over the place this week as a series of low pressure systems draw warmth north and drive cold air south.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Tuesday March 11, 2025
An Arctic high will bring cold temperatures to southern Manitoba on Tuesday morning.

It’ll be a frigid start to the week with temperatures down into the -20s across southern Manitoba this morning. An Arctic air mass settled into the region overnight behind the cold front of the clipper system that brought a fresh coat of snow to the region yesterday. Fortunately, the cold won’t be here for long as the Arctic high responsible for it quickly shifts towards eastern Canada.

Temperatures will rebound back into the -10 to -5 °C range this afternoon with southerly winds picking up into the 20 to 30 km/h range. Much of the day should bring sunshine, but skies will cloud over in the evening. Another low pressure system will slump through the province into North Dakota tonight. It will keep temperatures from dropping much overnight and bring another dusting of snow to the region. The snow should begin sometime after supper and taper off overnight. Snowfall amounts by Wednesday morning should be less than a centimetre or two.

The weather for the rest of the work week will be defined by two features: an upper ridge building into the Prairies and a deepening upper trough on the west coast.

The building upper ridge will bring milder temperatures back to the region with daytime highs climbing to around the +5 °C mark on Wednesday. As a bonus, Wednesday should bring sunny skies with southwest winds in the 15 to 25 km/h range.

By Wednesday evening, a well-developed warm front will lie draped from the southwestern Prairies into North Dakota. A weak impulse will track along it on Wednesday night, bringing more cloud and light snow. There will be a risk of freezing rain overnight as warm air continues to stream north over the warm front through the night. At this point, it is not expected to be a widespread concern but we could see slippery areas on Thursday morning from overnight freezing rain.

Temperatures will dip down into the -5 to 0 °C range on Wednesday night with northeast winds picking up into the 20 to 30 km/h range.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday March 13, 2025
Thursday could bring warm weather to southern Manitoba.

Skies will clear out on Thursday as the deepening upper trough over the west coast begins to drive the development of a large low pressure system in the United States. The temperature forecast is tricky for the day as there are disagreements as to whether the warm front over the region will stay roughly in place or lift north. If winds stay northeast, daytime highs will likely reach a degree or two above 0 °C. If the region can switch to easterly or southeasterly winds, then much warmer weather is possible.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the end of the week, the broad story is clear, but the details are impossible to discern at this point. As the upper trough begins to dig east towards the American Plains, a potent Colorado Low will develop and begin to lift northeast on Friday. A warm front will be driven northeast through southern Manitoba as warm air surges north. Daytime highs of 15 to 20 °C will be possible over northern Minnesota, but temperatures in the Red River Valley will likely reach the 5 to 10 °C range. As the warm air pushes north, cold air will dig in from the northwest; heading into western and southwestern Manitoba, daytime highs may not even break the freezing mark.

This system will spread multiple waves of precipitation north over a couple days, and almost anything could be possible: heavy rain showers, freezing rain, broad areas of rain, snow, and ice pellets. This system will bring strong northerly winds on its western flank with much colder weather digging into the region later on Saturday.

At this point, it looks like much of this system’s precipitation will track east of the Red River Valley but forecasting the track of Colorado Lows more than a few days out can be a futile effort. There is the chance that this system’s track could shift east and end up missing our region…or that its track shifts west and the Red River Valley experiences the brunt of this system.

Be prepared for the potential for a major storm this weekend with all sorts of wintery weather possible, and hope for the best!

Colder weather will settle into the region for Sunday as the temperature drops into the minus teens on Saturday night and rebounds towards the -10 to -5 °C range.

Warmer weather will build back in for next week with daytime highs climbing back above freezing.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -2 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -13 °C.

Warming up for the Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

A series of low pressure systems will bring mild weather to the Winnipeg area this weekend, but a cool-down with more snow will kick off next week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Sunday March 9, 2025
Mild temperatures will spread across southern Manitoba on Sunday.

The work week will end with seasonably cool temperatures in the Winnipeg area while a warm front sits to the west, draped from northern Saskatchewan into southwestern Manitoba. Over the weekend, a pair of low pressure systems will move across the region and push warmer weather into the region.

For today, the region will see seasonably cool conditions with a high near -5 °C this afternoon. A mixed skies will give way to midday sun, then to increasing cloud in the afternoon as the warm front begins to push east into the region. Light winds will organize out of the south as the day goes on and pick up into the 15 to 25 km/h range overnight. Light snow will push through the region in the second half of the night as a weak low pushes the warm front east of the region. A light dusting of snow will taper off early Saturday morning as temperatures rise a couple degrees by morning.

Saturday will bring mild temperatures back to the region with highs climbing above freezing into the 0 to +5 °C range. Winds will ease and shift northwest for the afternoon. A few sunny breaks are possible as the day wears on.

A more organized low pressure system will eject east across the Prairies on Saturday night and track towards central Manitoba. It will draw more mild air across the southern Prairies as it spreads accumulating snow into central Manitoba. For Winnipeg and the Red River Valley, this will likely mean partly cloudy skies overnight with temperatures dipping below freezing. Winds will shift southerly again and pick up to around 20 km/h by Sunday morning.

Sunday should bring even warmer weather to the region with daytime highs potentially climbing into the 5 to 10 °C range. As the low passes by north of the region into Ontario on Sunday monring, winds will shift west-northwesterly. They will strengthen into the 30 to 40 km/h range for Sunday afternoon, making for mild but breezy conditions.

A cold front will slump south towards the region on Sunday evening and likely bring temperatures back below the freezing mark by Sunday morning. No notable snow is expected with this second system in the Red River Valley.

Long Range Outlook

Next week is shaping up to be an active one with two notable systems impacting the region. The first will be a potent low pressure system that quickly tracks through the southern Prairies on Monday. Early indications are that this system will draw a lot of warm air north with temperatures in the mid-teens on its southern flank dropping to temperatures in the -10 to 0 °C on its northern flank. This system could bring a narrow swath of significant snow to the region, but there’s a lot of uncertainty associated with it at this point.

The second system is currently forecast to develop late next week and could potentially result in the first Colorado Low of the season. If it develops as expected, it could bring as much as 10 to 20 cm of snow to southern Manitoba beginning late Friday through Saturday. It’s early, though, and there’s a lot of room for guidance to change over the next several days. For now, it’s a feature I’ll keep track of as we head into next week.

Otherwise, temperatures look to be near seasonal, but larger swings between highs and lows are possible next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -3 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -14 °C.

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