Mild Weather Continues

The warm weather from the weekend will continue into this week. High temperatures at or above zero will continue.

850mb temperatures will be around 8C in Southern Manitoba on Tuesday

850mb temperatures will be around 8C in Southern Manitoba on Tuesday

Temperatures will drop off slightly on Monday compared with Sunday as the wind switches to a more westerly direction. High temperatures will be held down a bit as cooler air moves in from the vast expanse of snow covered land to our west. Highs will generally be in the -4 to 0C range over Southern Manitoba, with more widespread above zero temperatures in south-eastern areas. On Tuesday most of Southern Manitoba should get above zero, with the exception of heavily snow covered areas which will hover close to the freezing mark. Warm air just above the surface (seen in the graphic above) will offer the potential for high single digit or even low double-digit temperatures in snow-free areas if it can stay sunny (mainly south-eastern Manitoba). Southern Manitoba should once again remain mainly above freezing on Wednesday as a light south-easterly flow allows warm conditions to continue.

Current forecasts show a low pressure system sliding through Manitoba on Thursday. This system will bring more snow to parts of Manitoba, though it is unclear at this point if Southern Manitoba will see any significant amount of the white stuff. What does appear likely at this point is that colder air will be pulled down as this system passes through. As a result colder conditions are expected on Friday and may last into the weekend. More details on the potential impact of this system will be available in Wednesday’s post.

Enjoy one of the last mild stretches before our real winter sets in!

The Calm After the Storm

After a weekend laced with active weather all over the Prairies, we will go into a much more subdued pattern for this week. But unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the snow is going anywhere fast.

Cold temperatures are expected on Monday morning in Western Manitoba

Cold temperatures are expected on Monday morning in Western Manitoba

The weather to start the week looks cool to cold, but fairly uneventful. The main story may in fact be the low temperatures, with very cold values expected. On Sunday morning Coronation, Alberta plunged down to -29C! In Southern Manitoba our lows don’t look to be quite that extreme, but if skies clear out as expected some -20C readings may appear in Western Manitoba this morning. In the Red River Valley our daytime temperatures won’t moderate much from this morning’s lows, with temperatures basically flat-lining throughout the day in the high minus single digits or low minus double digits. It looks like we’ll get down into the low minus teens on Tuesday morning, with widespread -20s not looking too likely at this point. By Tuesday afternoon it looks like we’ll climb up to the mid minus single digits, which should be fairly pleasant given the lack of wind. On Wednesday models suggest that we could get up to the freezing mark, though they may not have a great handle on the new snow cover, so I’d assume our temperatures will remain slightly below zero for now.

No significant weather is in store for the late week period, just more typical mid-November conditions. Long-range models hint at warmer than normal weather returning to Manitoba later this month, but those predictions should be taken with caution for now as our new snow cover may not be properly accounted for yet.