Unremarkable Weather On The Way As Temperatures Inch Towards Seasonal

Winnipeg will see very little weather of note as temperatures slowly trend back towards seasonal values.

A low pressure system moving eastwards through northern Manitoba will bring just a few clouds to Winnipeg today as it drags a cold front across the southern Interlake. Fortunately, Winnipeg will remain on the warmer side of the front, and temperatures should climb to a high near -12°C with winds out of the west-southwest at 10 to 20 km/h. The city will see a few clouds tonight as temperatures dip to a low near -19°C with light winds.

Thursday will be a beautiful day in Winnipeg with sunny skies, light winds, and a high near -7°C. Skies will cloud over on Thursday night as outflow from a high pressure system in the United States meets warmer air advecting into the Prairies from the west. Winnipeg should see a low near -15°C.

RDSP 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday February 22, 2018
Winnipeg will see near-seasonal temperatures on Thursday

Friday will bring mostly cloudy skies to Winnipeg. The extensive cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler with the high for the day likely around -9°C. Winds will be light, and it doesn’t appear that there will be any chance for snow, so the day may end up being a relatively pleasant one given how February has gone so far. Winnipeg will likely continue to see a fair amount of cloud on Friday night as temperatures head to a low near -16°C.

Long Range Outlook

The large-scale pattern over North America continues to shift, with the polar vortex now retreating back towards the North Pole and a secondary cold vortex that has been over Northern Manitoba/Nunavut also shifting off to the east. This change in pattern will allow milder air to build eastwards across the Prairies from the Pacific, finally getting southern Manitoba out of the “Arctic pipeline” that’s been in place for so long now.

As a result, it looks like Winnipeg will actually be entering a stretch of near- to above-seasonal temperatures! With the warmer temperatures will come more variability in cloud cover, but that seems like a reasonable price to pay for some warmer weather at this point.

For those hoping for any precipitation, you’ll have to continue waiting, though. Despite the milder air, snow remains elusive in the forecast, with the main storm tracks continuing to pass to the north and south of the Red River Valley. There are some indications that southern Manitoba may see a storm to kick off March – in like a lion, perhaps? – but there’s plenty of time for that forecast to change. We’ll be keeping an eye on it; in the meantime, enjoy the break from the cold!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -7°C while the seasonal overnight low is -17°C.

Arctic Chill On Monday Gives Way to Warming Trend

After a cool Monday, Winnipeg will undergo a slow and steady climb back towards seasonal temperatures under variable cloudiness.

Today will be the coolest day of the upcoming week in Winnipeg as an Arctic ridge moves through the region, bringing high temperatures -17°C. Winds will remain light through the day, but Winnipeg will see clouds work in through the afternoon from the south as a storm moving through the Northern Plains spreads clouds well northwards of its path. Temperatures should dip to a cool low near -22°C tonight with a fair amount of cloud remaining over the city.

Cloudy skies will remain over the city on Tuesday as a weak warm front pushes into the region from the northwest. Temperatures will be quite a bit milder than Monday with highs forecast to climb to around -12°C with light northerly winds continuing. We may see a bit of non-accumulating light snow through the day as temperatures hover right in a favourable zone for spontaneous snowflake creation, but nothing particularly notable is expected. Temperatures will dip to a low near -21°C on Tuesday night under clearing skies and a light west-southwest wind.

RDPS 12hr. QPF Forecast valid 00Z Wednesday February 21, 2018
Much of the Red River Valley will see the chance for some non-accumulating light snow on Tuesday

Wednesday looks to bring the sun back to Winnipeg with just a few clouds around as another low pressure system tracks through central Manitoba. Temperatures will continue trending warmer with a high near -10°C and winds will continue out of the southwest at 10 to 20 km/h. Skies should remain mainly clear on Wednesday night with a low near -17°C

Long Range Outlook

It’s finally looking as if the persistent polar vortex near Southampton Island in Hudson Bay that has resulted in steady north-northwesterly flow over much of the Prairies – and associated cold air outbreaks – is finally going to be shifting off to the east and weakening this week.

This will allow temperatures to moderate from the well below-seasonal values Winnipeg has seen for so much of February; by the end of the week, high temperatures may climb slightly above-seasonal! The warm weather won’t be coming with much of a risk for precipitation either, so all in all, it looks like a gradual moderating trend towards seasonal to slightly above-seasonal temperatures!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -7°C while the seasonal overnight low is -17°C.

A Breezy Break from the Arctic Chill

Winnipeg will see variable cloudiness over the next several days with breezy conditions while the city is given a brief reprieve from unseasonably cold temperatures.

Today will be a considerably more pleasant day in Winnipeg than yesterday was, with a much warmer high near -8°C this afternoon as a weak low moving into the Interlake ushers a seasonal air mass into the region. Winds will be a bit breezy out of the south this afternoon, strengthening to around 20 to 30 km/h and producing wind chill values in the -15 to -20 range. This will still be much more pleasant than the -35 wind chills Winnipeg saw for much of Thursday. Winnipeg should see plenty of sun through the first half of the day, but clouds will begin moving into the region in the afternoon as the low approaches, with skies becoming cloudy by mid-afternoon. Expect cloudy skies on Friday night with just a slight chance of some non-accumulating light snow. Winnipeg should see a low near -15°C.

Saturday will see skies clear out early in the morning with temperatures recovering to a high near -10°C. Winds will be breezy out of the west at around 30 gusting to 50 km/h, creating wind chill values near -20. The Arctic front will slump back southwards on Saturday evening, bringing more cloud to the region as temperatures drop to a low near -21°C. There will be just a slight chance of some non-accumulating light snow on Saturday night.

GDPS 2m Temperature Forecast with Annotations valid 12Z Sunday February 18, 2018
Winnipeg will find itself north of the Arctic front once again on Sunday morning.

With Winnipeg behind the Arctic front once again on Sunday, temperatures will be well below seasonal with a high near -17°C. Any cloud left in the region should clear out midday, and winds will be out of the north at around 10 to 15 km/h, creating wind chill values near -25. With clear skies much of Sunday night, temperatures will drop to a well below-seasonal low near -25°C.

Long Range Outlook

In what is becoming a notable trend, Winnipeg’s long-range forecast continues to lack any significant precipitation, with nothing more than a trace of precipitation forecast in the next 7-10 days. Passing systems will bring some cloud to the region, but generally speaking, things will remain dry. Below-normal temperatures will likely persist into the middle of next week, but then a trend towards more seasonal temperatures is expected.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -8°C while the seasonal overnight low is -18°C.

RDPS Forecast 2m Temperature valid 18Z Wednesday February 14, 2018 - Featured

One Mild Day, Then Arctic Air Surges Southwards

Temperatures will climb to the freezing mark in Winnipeg today before two cold fronts surge southwards and bring Arctic air back to the region tonight.

A passing low pressure system will bring significantly milder temperatures to southern Manitoba today as it draws a Pacific-sourced air mass eastwards across the Prairies. Under cloudy skies and much calmer southerly winds, temperatures will climb to a high around 0°C. Winds will become light in the afternoon as the low centre and cold front move through, then pick up out of the northwest to 30-40 km/h as much colder air collapses southwards through the region.

RDPS Forecast 2m Temperature valid 18Z Wednesday February 14, 2018
Winnipeg will see its warmest temperatures midday, then two cold fronts will drop southwards through the afternoon and evening bringing Arctic air back to the region.

There won’t be much chance for snow before the cold front moves through, but once it does in the late afternoon, there will be a good chance of some light snow through the remainder of the afternoon and the night. Temperatures will plummet to a low near -22°C with wind chill values in the mid-minus thirties.

RPDS 24hr. Snowfall at 10:1 SLR valid at 12Z Thursday February 15, 2018
The Red River Valley will likely see just a dusting of light snow as the cold fronts move through Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.

Conditions will settle through the remainder of the week. Thursday will see clouds clear out with a slight chance of some early morning flurries. It will be a cold one again as southern Manitoba find itself once again behind the Arctic front; Winnipeg will see a high near -19°C. Winds will continue near 30 gusting 50 km/h through the morning, finally tapering of in the late afternoon, so wind chill values will remain an issue much of the day, hovering in the -30 to -35 range. The wind will taper off Thursday night with lows dipping down to around -23°C, moderated slightly by warmer air that will begin working into the region through the second half of the night.

Friday will be a pleasant day with south-southwesterly winds around 20 km/h and a high near -11°C. Winnipeg should see plenty of sun with clouds not moving into the region until the late afternoon as another low approaches from Saskatchewan. There will be a chance for some light snow on Friday night with cloudy skies and a low near -15°C.

Long Range Outlook

The long-range outlook for Winnipeg is…more of the same. Near-seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday will likely give way to colder Arctic air again on Sunday, then another gradually climb back towards seasonal temperatures is forecast to take place through next week. Best indications are at this point are for variable cloudiness and relatively light winds with no notable snowfall through next week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -8°C while the seasonal overnight low is -19°C.