RDPS 2m temperature forecast valid 21Z June 6, 2018

Warmer, Unsettled Conditions on the Way

Warmer temperatures are on the way back to Winnipeg, but will come with variable cloudiness and the potential for more shower and thunderstorm activity.

Today will bring sunny skies and cool temperatures to Winnipeg as a ridge of high pressure moves through the region. As the ridge moves in, northwesterly winds near 30 km/h this morning will taper off to light in the afternoon. Winnipeg should see a high temperature near 21°C. Temperatures will dip to a low near 11°C under clear skies tonight.

Thursday will see the heat begin to build back into Manitoba as southerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h draw warmer air northwards. An upper-level disturbance will spread showers and thunderstorms through North Dakota, and while Manitoba should escape most of the precipitation, many areas will see mixed skies or cloudy periods. Winnipeg will likely end up with mixed skies as temperatures head to a high near 26°C. Winds will diminish Thursday evening as temperatures dip to a low near 13°C under mixed skies.

NAM 12hr. QPF forecast valid 06Z Saturday June 9, 2018
Several models, including the NAM pictured above, show an area of showers and thunderstorms moving through southern Manitoba on Friday

On Friday, a low pressure system sliding eastwards along the international border will bring cloudy skies and along with a good chance of showers or thunderstorms to the Red River Valley. The cloud cover will keep things cooler with Winnipeg likely seeing a high near 23°C. Skies will begin to clear overnight as the low moves off to the east. Winnipeg will see a low near 15°C on Friday night.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the weekend, conditions look great with plenty of sunshine and daytime highs in the upper 20s. Humidity should remain low, making for comfortable days. Winds will be a bit breezy on Sunday out of the southeast, picking up ahead of the next low moving towards the region.

At this point, Monday looks to bring a return to unsettled conditions with the chance for showers and thunderstorms. This will clear up rather quickly, returning to variable cloudiness and seasonal temperatures into mid-week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 23°C while the seasonal overnight low is 10°C.

Mixed Bag of Weather Ahead

Winnipeg will see nothing but sunshine give way to unsettled conditions to start the week as a low pressure system moves into the region on Tuesday.

Thanks to a ridge of high pressure over the Red River Valley, today will be a beautiful day in Winnipeg. With nothing but sunshine and light winds, temperatures will climb to a seasonably cool high near 19°C. A low pressure system extending from central Saskatchewan into the Dakotas will being moving into the region tonight, bringing increasing cloud cover. Winds will remain light, though, gradually shifting from the north to the southeast. Temperatures will dip to a low near 9°C.

Tuesday will bring cloudier, unsettled conditions back to Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. The southeasterly winds will pick up to around 30 km/h, drawing in warmer air from the south and sending temperatures towards a high near 25°C. Winnipeg will see mixed skies and the chance for some shower or thunderstorm activity. The best chances for precipitation will occur near the beginning and the end of the day:

  • In the morning, but this will be highly dependent on overnight activity surviving as it moves eastwards. This looks unlikely for the Red River Valley, but north of Winnipeg may see some activity move across the southern Interlake.
  • In the mid- to late-afternoon as a trough of low pressure moves across southern Manitoba. This looks more likely.

The thunderstorms will have limited energy to work with, but strong shear will make an isolated severe thunderstorm possible. The chance for showers or thunderstorms will continue into the evening, tapering off at the latest somewhere between 10PM and midnight. Winds will be light overnight with temperatures dipping to a low near 14°C.

RDPS 12hr. QPF Forecast valid 09Z Wednesday June 6, 2018
Portions of the Red River Valley may see showers or thunderstorms on Tuesday evening

Wednesday will start off with some lingering cloudiness from Tuesday’s system. Northwesterly winds picking back up to 20-30 km/h will help clear it out for a mainly sunny afternoon. Once that sun does appear, it’ll allow temperatures to climb to a high near 21°C. Winnipeg will see clear skies and light winds on Wednesday night and a low near 11°C.

Long Range Outlook

The remainder of the week in Winnipeg looks increasingly summer-y. An upper ridge is forecast to develop over the eastern Prairies through the latter half of the week. This will bring warmer conditions back to the region alongside variable cloudiness. Some humidity may build back into the region this weekend too, with dew point values possibly reaching 17 or 18°C by Sunday. This would be just high enough to make it begin to feel muggy, but not be overwhelmingly humid.

Conditions will deteriorate to start next week as an upper trough replaces the upper ridge and the chance for showers or thunderstorms returns to the region.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 22°C while the seasonal overnight low is 9°C.

Cool and Unsettled Conditions Continue

Temperatures will remain seasonably cool in Winnipeg through the weekend with several chances for rain as a slow-moving low pressure system moves through the region.

Winnipeg will see mainly cloudy skies today with a breezy easterly wind keeping temperatures seasonably cool with a high near 17°C.  There will also be on-and-off chances for rain today as the city remains along the eastern flank of an area of showers and thunderstorms moving through western Manitoba and the western Red River Valley. By mid-afternoon the showers should push north of the city, leaving Winnipeg with cloudy skies for the remainder of the day.

Winnipeg finds itself along the eastern edge of a band of showers streching across the western Red River Valley this morning
Winnipeg finds itself along the eastern edge of a band of showers streching across the western Red River Valley this morning

Overnight, the city will see a chance of more showers or thunderstorms as the slow-moving low crosses the Red River Valley. The best chance for any precipitation will be after midnight. The breezy winds will continue out of the east near 30 km/h with temperatures dipping to a low near 13°C.

Saturday will bring more cloud and a chance of some light showers to the city. It will be another cool day with a high of just 16°C. Southeasterly winds near 30 km/h in the morning will shift to westerly at 10 to 20 km/h in the afternoon. The cloud will begin to break up Saturday night as winds pick up out of the northwest to 30 km/h. Temperatures will dip to a low near 7°C.

Much of Manitoba will see rain and/or showers on Saturday
Much of Manitoba will see rain and/or showers on Saturday

Sunday will finally bring the sun back to the region as the clouds clear out. Winds will remain out of the northwest at 20 to 30 km/h and temperatures will reach a high near 19°C. Winnipeg will see a few clouds Sunday night with a low near 8°C.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will bring temperatures closer to seasonal values. Tuesday into Wednesday look to bring a slight chance of some showers or thunderstorms, otherwise conditions look quite pleasant.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 22°C while the seasonal overnight low is 9°C.

Cooler, Showery Weather On The Way

Winnipeg will see significantly cooler temperatures through the remainder of the week as mostly cloudy skies bring more chances for rain.

A low pressure system passing through North Dakota will bring substantially cooler conditions than seen over the past few days. As it tracks eastwards, northerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h will develop in Winnipeg, ushering in cooler temperatures from the north and limiting the daytime high to about 22°C. Skies will remain cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing midday through the afternoon. Much of the precipitation will end up to the south and east of Winnipeg, leaving the city with just a chance of showers or thunderstorms.

Winnipeg is forecast to be on the northwestern edge of today’s showers and thunderstorms

The northerly wind will continue at 10 to 20 km/h through the night. Temperatures will dip to a low near 14°C under cloudy skies.

Thursday will bring a lull in the scattered precipitation to the Red River Valley. A flat pressure pattern over the region will bring northerly winds of 10 to 20 km/h to Winnipeg and a high again near 22°C. Winds will shift easterly overnight as the next low approaches the region. Lows should reach around 12°C on Thursday night.

Friday will bring showers back to the region as a low pressure system lifts northeastwards out of the Dakotas. High temperatures will reach around 20°C, kept lower by easterly winds sourced from a high pressure system over Hudson Bay. As the low lifts north through the day, showers or thunderstorms will develop over southern Manitoba. This system then looks likely to support an area of showers and thunderstorms through Friday night.

Several forecast models are showing a high likelihood of showers and thunderstorms developing over the Red River Valley on Friday night

A warm front lifting northwards will keep temperatures warmer on Friday night. Winnipeg should see a low near 15°C with southeasterly winds of 20 to 30 km/h.

Long Range Outlook

The showers are forecast to taper off Saturday morning, then clearing will work into the Red River Valley. The remainder of the weekend looks pleasant with partly cloudy skies and slightly cooler than seasonal highs near 20°C.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 22°C while the seasonal overnight low is 8°C.