Warm and sunny weather will remain in place across southern Manitoba this weekend.
A low pressure system moving into Saskatchewan will bring very warm weather to southern Manitoba on Sunday.
A southwesterly flow aloft will sit over the southern Prairies this weekend and continue to push warm air into the region. With the storm track shunted northwards of the region, Winnipeg and area will see sunny skies that last right through the weekend.
Daytime highs will climb from the low 20s today into the mid- to upper-20s this weekend. Overnight lows will hover around 10 °C tonight and tomorrow, but a push of warmer air on Sunday night will keep lows warmer in the mid-teens.
Winds today will be light, eventually picking up out of the south into the 15 to 25 km/h range this afternoon. A weak high pressure system moving through on Saturday will bring light northerly winds to the region. On Sunday, the wind will pick up quite a bit with the push of warmer air moving into the region. Southerly winds will strengthen as high as 50 gusting 70 km/h midday and persist through much of the night before beginning to ease.
All in all, aside from the winds on Sunday, it looks like it’s going to be a beautiful few days ahead.
Long Range Outlook
A low pressure system will cross the province on Monday, bringing a significant pattern change to southern Manitoba. This system will bring showers to the region as a cold front sweeps across the province. In its wake, cooler weather will slump southwards out of the Arctic. This will result in breezy northwest winds, daytime highs slumping into the 10 to 15 °C range, and the chance of some lake-effect showers through the first half of the week.
While there may be a couple blips of warmer weather later in the week, it looks like this marks a shift back towards near-seasonal temperatures for the region for a while.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 15 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 4 °C.
An upper ridge building into the Prairies will send high temperatures back into the mid-20s across southern Manitoba.
An upper ridge will bring warm weather back to southern Manitoba this week.
The main weather-maker through the rest of the week will be an upper high that will move from the Pacific coast east towards the American Plains. It will build a strong upper ridge into the Prairies and push temperatures well above seasonal norms.
For Winnipeg, this trend will start with clearing skies today as temperatures climb to a high in the low 20s. For Wednesday and Thursday, sunny skies will blanket the region with highs climbing into the mid-20s. The winds will only be notable on Thursday where they will pick up out of the south into the 20 to 30 km/h range.
Overnight lows will range from the low to mid-teens over the next few days.
Long Range Outlook
The upper ridge will linger over Manitoba as it begins to break down near week’s end. This will mean mainly sunny conditions should continue into the weekend with daytime highs in the low to mid-20s.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 16 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 4 °C.
A persistent southerly flow over southern Manitoba will keep the seasonably warm and humid conditions in place for a for a few more days.
A stalled low over eastern Montana will continue to pump warmer air northwards into southern Manitoba this week.
A quick note to start: the lack of forecasts last week was due to the fact that I’m dealing with a long-lasting bout of COVID–19 that’s sidelined me for a while now. I’m on a [gradual] up and up now, with symptoms finally receding after testing positive on rapid tests for a whopping 11 days in a row. Not a fun time, looking forward to getting back at life.
Daytime highs in the mid-20s will continue into mid-week for the Winnipeg area as a persistent low pressure complex to the west supports a southerly flow across the region. Daytime highs for Tuesday and Wednesday will likely sit around 25 °C; it could be a touch cooler if a bit of a stronger cold pool is left behind from overnight convection, or a tad warmer if we clear out early and a stronger southerly flow can develop earlier in the day.
The humidity will also be notable for mid-September, with dew point values in the mid- to upper-teens, potentially reaching around 20 °C on Wednesday. This is more humid that the region often sees at this time of year, but the lower daytime highs in the 20s should keep the worst of the heat effects at bay. In the sun, the heat and humidity could combine to feel like it’s in the low 30s rather than mid-20s.
In addition to the seasonably mild temperatures, it will continue to be humid across southern Manitoba.
Overnight lows both tonight and tomorrow night will sit in the mid-teens.
Weather-wise, today should bring clearing skies as the disturbance that brought rain and thunderstorms to the region yesterday pushes off to the east. A few clouds will begin to build back in tonight, leading to mixed skies on Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region from the west.
A few showers are possible on Wednesday; it looks like they should be weak, though the slow-moving nature of the cold front and broad forcing could result in a narrow band of slow-moving showers that could produce some locally higher amounts in the 15 to 25 mm range. I’m doubtful Wednesday will be a “wet” day, more likely a cloudier one with the chance of passing showers.
The cloudiness and chance of showers will continue into Wednesday night.
Unsettled End to the Work Week
The low that’s been sitting to the west all week will finally get moving on Thursday, moving into southwest Manitoba on Thursday and sliding into northern Manitoba on Friday.
This will bring a notable change in the weather to southern Manitoba. To start, both Thursday and Friday could bring wet conditions to the Red River Valley. On Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will begin possible through much of south-central and southeast Manitoba as the forcing along the cold front picks up with the advance of the low. This activity will likely continue into the night as it pushes northeast.
Winds will finally shift on Thursday from the persistent southerly at 20 to 30 gusting 50 km/h seen much of this week to westerly winds of 15 to 30 km/h.
On Friday, showers in the instability on the back-side of this system may clip through southern Manitoba as cooler air moves into the region. Daytime highs will cool into the low 20s by the end of the work week.
Long Range Outlook
Heading into the weekend, more settled conditions will develop over the region as near-seasonal temperatures return. Winnipeg will see partly cloudy conditions over the weekend with daytime highs in the upper teens and overnight lows near the 10 °C mark.
This trend looks to continue into the start of next week.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 6 °C.
After a couple cooler and unsettled days, sunnier skies and warmer weather will build back into southern Manitoba this weekend.
Significantly warmer temperatures will begin to spread east across the Prairies on Saturday.
To wrap up the work week, Winnipeg will start the day with mixed skies and a slight chance of showers. A weak disturbance over the region this morning will bring that chance of unsettled weather, but it will dissipate as the day wears on. Winnipeg will likely see mixed skies continue into the afternoon as temperatures climb to around 20 °C.
Temperatures will head to a low in the 5–10 °C range tonight with light winds and clear skies.
Heading into the weekend, an upper ridge will build across the Prairies, bringing heat back to the region. Southerly winds will increase into the 20–30 km/h range on Saturday with highs pushing back into the mid-20s. The city should see partly cloudy to mixed skies through much of Saturday, but no chance of rain.
Winds will ease on Saturday night as skies clear and temperatures head down into the low teens.
On Sunday, temperatures will climb back up into the upper 20s with light winds and sunny skies. It will cool down overnight back to the low teens again.
Long Range Outlook
The upper ridge will continue to pump heat into the region to start next week, sending daytime highs close to around 30 °C. Much of next week will bring seasonably hot conditions with highs mainly in the 25–30 °C range.
There’s little to no chance of rain until the second half of the week, but the most likely chance for rain will develop towards the weekend when the upper ridge begins to break down and cooler temperatures begin to push back into southern Manitoba.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.
