Weather Forecasts, Facts and News for Winnipeg & Southern Manitoba
Author: Brad
Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.
This weekend will bring a brief reprieve from the wet weather before a Colorado Low begins impacting the region for the start of next week. Temperatures will remain below normal, but we should see plenty of sunshine with just relatively light south-easterly winds.
Friday
8°C / 0°C
Mainly cloudy. Chance of showers or drizzle.
Saturday
10°C / 3°C
Partly cloudy.
Sunday
11°C / 4°C
Increasing cloud.
Today will bring mostly cloudy skies with a chance for some lingering showers or drizzle as the system that’s been impacting us over the past few days slides off into Ontario. Clouds will begin to break up a bit in the afternoon as we head towards our high of around 8°C, however it won’t be until the evening or overnight period until we see the clouds actually begin to clear out.
Saturday look like the nicest day of the next few, with more sun than cloud and a high near 10 or 11°C. The wind will be out of the southeast at around 20-30km/h, but otherwise it’ll be a pleasant – albeit cooler than normal – spring day. We’ll drop to around 2 or 3°C on Saturday night under mainly clear skies.
Sunday will herald the arrival of the next storm to impact the Prairies: a massive Colorado Low that looks to stall out over the northern Plains of the United States and absolutely smother the Prairies in precipitation.
24hr. precipitation forecast from the GDPS showing anywhere as much as 30-40mm of rain from Sunday night through Monday.
This system looks to be extremely complex with multiple features interacting with each other: the Colorado Low itself, a large inverted trough that looks to develop along a north/south line through Saskatchewan, and the occlusion of the upper-level low centre that will stall the system out over the Northern Plains. Subtle variations in any one of these features can dramatically alter the weather outcome, let alone how those variations will interact with each other across these features. In addition, there will be a fairly significant high pressure system through Northern Manitoba that will surely do it’s best to inject dry air into the system and really sharpen up the northern edge of it. Needless to say, we’ll be keeping a close eye on this one and have more details on where, and how much, precipitation might actually happen in the comments below as things begin to come together.
A large spring storm will bring the most significant rainfall to the Red River Valley since last October. It will be mainly rain that falls over the next couple days, however higher-terrain areas of Parkland Manitoba will likely see snow feature more predominantly. This system will be fairly long-lasting, too, with precipitation pushing into SW Manitoba this morning and lingering through Friday.
Wednesday
Wednesday
11°C
Increasing cloud.
Wednesday Night
3°C
Rain beginning in the evening. 5-10mm.
The wet weather over the next couple days is being caused by a strong upper-level trough (depicted in the picture at the top of this post) that is pushing inland from the Pacific. This feature will spawn an elongated trough of low pressure with embedded low pressure centres within it that spans all the way from Alberta through Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and southwards to Texas. This large feature will be aided by an upper-level low tracking along the Canadian/US border which will amplify the precipitation through the Canadian Prairies.
So, what will we see? Rain will spread into southwestern Manitoba this morning and slowly – quite slowly, actually – spread eastwards through the day towards the Red River Valley. By the afternoon, rain should push into the western RRV, but likely won’t reach Winnipeg and into the eastern RRV until late this afternoon or into this evening. By the evening, most areas across Southwest and Parkland Manitoba will likely see around 10-20mm of rainfall, with the potential for some localized amounts of 20-25mm.
Rain will continue to push eastwards through the night, bringing fairly steady rain to most areas in Southern Manitoba. Areas in extreme southwestern Manitoba may see things taper off as the main axis of rain begins shifting to the northeast. Another 5-10mm of rain will fall in most places, however in higher elevations of Parkland Manitoba the rain will switch over to snow overnight with 5-10cm of accumulation possible.
Thursday
Thursday
5°C / 0°C
Rain. 10-20mm.
Thursday will see rain tampering off in Southwest Manitoba, but being reinvigorated over the Red River Valley and Interlake by another shot of moisture lifting northwards along the trough line. Here in the RRV around another 5-10mm will fall, however portions of the valley into the Whiteshell may end up seeing 10-15mm if the heavier rain arrives a little earlier.
Storm-total precipitation expected from Wednesday through Friday.
Light rain will persist through much of Thursday night and perhaps become mixed with snow as we approach our low temperature of around 1°C. Another 2-5mm of precipitation is expected.
Friday
Friday
5°C / -6°C
A few showers or flurries.
The system will finally begin pushing out of the region on Friday, however an lingering trough will hang back into the province for much of the day, spreading some showers or, at times through the morning, light flurries through the region. Further amounts of precipitation will be minimal – likely less than 2mm.
Things look to clear out for a sunny weekend. Saturday’s high will be below normal, somewhere around 6°C or so, and Sunday will return to a near-normal high in the low teens. The nice weather may be short-lived, though, as weather models are hinting towards the development of a Colorado Low that would impact Southern Manitoba starting Sunday night.
For the first time in a long time we’re in for an extend period of mild weather, sounds nice doesn’t it!
A surface high will bring pleasant conditions to southern Manitoba on Monday
Monday
Monday
9°C / -2°C
Mainly Sunny
Today will feature slightly below seasonal temperatures in southern Manitoba. Highs will range from the low teens in south-western areas, to upper single digits in the Winnipeg region. We’ll be under a surface ridge of high pressure, which should keep winds relatively light and skies relatively clear.
Tuesday
Tuesday
14°C / 4°C
Mainly Sunny
Tuesday looks to be another nice day in southern Manitoba. Temperatures should be near to slightly above-seasonal, meaning high temperatures in the low to mid teens. The wind will begin to increase late in the day, particularly over western Manitoba, as a developing weather system approaches the region.
Wednesday
Wednesday
9°C / 4°C
Mainly Cloudy. Chance of Rain.
Wednesday will see mild weather continue, with temperatures in the upper single digits, although we may get a bit wet. That developing weather system noted for Tuesday will spread rain, or even snow, into Manitoba on Wednesday. It’s too early to say where the main impacts of this storm will be, but it looks to become a fairly major storm for some part of Manitoba. Some of the current models take the storm up into Central Manitoba, while others take it through southern Manitoba. Areas to the north of its track could potentially see heavy snow, while areas to the south will see rain. As more certain information about this storm is available, we’ll be sure to let you know.
Long Range
The long range forecast suggests we’ll generally see normal to slightly-below normal weather to close out the month of April. That means high temperatures generally near the 10°C mark. While 10°C is nothing spectacular for this time of year, it certainly sounds ok given how awful the last several months have been.
A storm system pushing through Southern Manitoba tonight will bring snow, rain and everything in between to Southern Manitoba tonight, marking a significant shift in the upper-level flow that will bring seasonal to above seasonal temperatures through the weekend and into next week.
Friday
7°C / +2°C
Increasing cloud. Rain beginning this evening. 10-15mm.
Saturday
10°C / 0°C
Clearing in the afternoon; chance of showers.
Sunday
11°C / 0°C
Mainly sunny. Chance of showers overnight.
First Significant Rain of the Year
Today will be a pleasant day; high temperatures will sit around 6 or 7°C this afternoon with mainly sunny skies giving way to increasing cloudiness this evening. Winds will begin to pick up this afternoon to around 30km/h. The big story, though, is the low pressure system that will track through tonight.
A major low pressure system will begin pushing into Southern Manitoba tonight. This system, marking the transition into a warmer weather pattern, will spread significant rain and snow through the province during the overnight hours. Things will start off in the afternoon through the Parkland region with snow spreading eastwards from Saskatchewan. As the system pushes towards the Interlake and Red River Valley, precipitation will extend southwards, primarily as rain and then push eastwards through the remainder of the night. Winds will also be fairly strong, with sustained winds around 30-40km/h and gusts up to 60km/h.
Multiple precipitation types will be coming into play again with this system. The primary rain-snow line, at this point, looks like it will sit 50-100km north of the Trans-Canada highway. This line is not set in stone, however, and will likely meander north and south as temperature profiles change and precipitation intensifies and subsides. Areas near the rain-snow line may see precipitation flip from one to the other multiple times. With this low pressure system freezing rain is not expected, but ice pellets or a rain/snow mix are entirely possible.
Expected precipitation types for tonight’s storm system.
Precipitation, while relatively short-lived, will be fairly intense with this system. The heaviest axis of precipitation looks to extend from Parkland Manitoba, through the southern Interlake and northern Red River Valley and then through SE Manitoba into NW Ontario. For those on the snow side of the rain/snow line in Parkland Manitoba (including Dauphin), snowfall amounts will peak at around 10-20cm with amounts tapering off towards the northern Interlake and the rain/snow line. For the areas that will see rain, amounts will be split into three main groups:
Location
Rainfall Amount
Extreme SW Manitoba (Melita)
<= 5mm
SW Manitoba & Southern RRV
5-10mm
Winnipeg/Northern RRV & SE Manitoba
10-15mm
Saturday will start off mainly cloudy with mist and fog scattered through the Red River Valley. There will be a slight chance of showers, particularly through the northern half of the valley through Winnipeg and into the Southern Interlake. For any activity that does occur, however, amounts will be fairly minimal. Winds will be relatively light and skies will begin to clear for a sunnier afternoon. The temperature will top out around 10°C.
Saturday night will see temperatures dip to around 0°C with light winds. It’s likely that the substantial precipitation coupled with rapid snow melt and calm winds will produce fairly extensive fog through the Red River Valley. Fog is notoriously difficult to predict, so we’ll keep tabs on things into the evening hours and try to give as much heads up one way or another as to what to expect. Just be aware that for travel overnight Saturday into Sunday, fog may play into the picture.
Warmer Weather Arrives
We’ll start pushing into the significantly warmer weather on Sunday as another low pressure system approaches, bringing with it another pulse of warm air. Temperatures in Winnipeg will climb to around 11°C on Sunday with light winds under mainly sunny skies[1]. Temperatures on Sunday night will drop to around 0°C once again, but we do have an ever so slight chance of seeing some showers overnight as a disturbance tracks along the U.S. border.
Daytime highs should sit near to just above normal through much of next week, generally in the 10-15°C range. No threats for precipitation are expected until the second half of the week.
If we end up with fog on Saturday night, we’ll see a cloudier Sunday morning, however skies should clear by late morning for a sunny afternoon. ↩
