Author: Brad

Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

Warmer and Unsettled Weekend Ahead

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Temperatures will finally push towards seasonal values this weekend as a warmer air mass pushes into Southern Manitoba from the Western Prairies. Daytime highs are set to climb into the mid-single digits which will bring the warmest temperatures since March 14th of this year when we managed to struggle our way to +4.0°C. Tagging alongside the milder temperatures will be unsettled conditions with multiple chances for precipitation through the next few days.

Friday

Friday
0°C / -5°C
Mainly sunny.

Today will be quite a pleasant day with mainly sunny skies and a high near 0°C. A ridge of high pressure will keep the winds light through the day as well. There may be a few cloudy periods this morning as we clean out any remnant cloud from yesterday’s system, but otherwise there should be plenty of sunshine.

Later today will see the approach of a warm front tied to a low pressure system tracking through the northern Prairies. Winds will increase out of the south to around 30km/h tonight as the warm front approaches. Thanks to the wind and some cloud pushing in later in the night, we’ll drop to only around -5°C.

Saturday

Tomorrow has the potential to be a bit of a messy start to the week. The warm front will be pushing it’s way through early in the day, bringing with it the potential for some snow or freezing rain.

Winnipeg forecast sounding for Saturday morning from the NAM.
Winnipeg forecast sounding for Saturday morning from the NAM.

This forecast sounding shows the development of a small layer of above-freezing air (AFL) above a below-freezing layer of air at the surface. The AFL doesn’t look very deep, so freezing rain is far from a sure thing as the balance between melting snow and reinforcement of warm air will be a delicate one dependant on how intense the precipitation is.

Saturday
7°C / -5°C
Cloudy with chance of flurries or freezing rain in the morning, then clearing.

Depending on whether or not the precipitation manages to build far enough south to reach the Red River Valley is the primary unknown; if it does reach us then there’s a chance it will fall as freezing rain instead of snow. Whatever it decides to fall out of the sky as, though, it will be fairly short-lived and confined to the morning.

After the warm front pushes through in the morning, skies will begin to clear up and the temperature will begin climbing towards a high of 6 or 7°C. Saturday will be the warmest day in Winnipeg since the temperature hit 10.3°C on November 13th last year. Winds look to be light through the day.

Temperatures will drop to around -5°C once again on Saturday night with light winds.

Sunday

Sunday
3°C / -9°C
Mainly sunny.

Sunday will be a slightly cooler albeit still pleasant day. Winds will be relatively light out of the south as we head to a high temperature of 3°C. An incoming low pressure system will spread cloud into the Red River Valley late in the day and bring a chance of some flurries through the evening and overnight periods.

All in all it will be a fairly pleasant weekend without too much wind and some mild temperatures. Aside from a few brief chances for precipitation, it might actually feel quite spring-like out there! Enjoy!

A Quiet Return to Form

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After an exciting start to the week thanks to a Colorado Low that brought anywhere from 20-50cm of snow through portions of Southern Manitoba, North Dakota, Minnesota and Ontario, conditions are poised to return to near normal by the end of the week.

A low pressure system will bring seasonal temperatures for the weekend in Southern Manitoba.
A low pressure system will bring seasonal temperatures for the weekend in Southern Manitoba.

A west-to-southwesterly flow aloft will slowly bring warmer air into our region and allow our temperatures to finally snap out of the 10-15°C below normal regime Southern Manitoba has been stuck in for the past week and push towards seasonal values for this time of year. The considerable snow pack still remaining will limit our ability to warm above 0°C without any strong push of warm air as any extra energy the sun is giving at this time of year will be going into melting snow, not warming air.

Wednesday
-1°C / -13°C
Sunny.

Thursday
-1°C / -10°C
Becoming mainly cloudy. Chance of flurries.

Friday
+1°C / -8°C
Clearing.

A weak ridge of high pressure will keep skies clear and winds light today as temperatures climb to around -1°C. Temperatures will drop to around -13°C tonight with increasing cloudiness as a weak inverted trough extending northwards from a Colorado Low tracking through the Central Plains pushes into our region.

Thursday will be mostly cloudy – perhaps a few sunny breaks – with a slight chance for some flurries. There will be more organized light snow in southwestern Manitoba, perhaps a cm or two, but the inverted trough will slowly weaken and fizzle out as it pushes towards the Red River Valley. By the time it reaches Winnipeg, it seems likely that all that will remain is very disorganized and light flurry activity. Temperatures will climb to around -1°C again and drop to a low near -10°C overnight under mostly cloudy skies.

On Friday, the day will likely start cloudy but clear out through the morning leaving a mainly sunny afternoon. Temperatures will manage to squeak above the freezing mark to +1°C or so, making for quite a pleasant afternoon. Expect an overnight low around -8°C on Friday night under mainly clear skies.

Mild Weekend on the Way

Things look set to bring the warmest air of the year into the region for the weekend. A fairly strong low pressure system is forecast to track through the northern Prairies, dragging mild Pacific air eastwards as it goes. A warm front looks to push through on Saturday afternoon, bringing with it a slight chance for some flurry or shower activity. Temperatures will climb into the low single digits with breezy southerly winds in the 30-40km/h range.

Sunday will be perhaps the nicest day we’ve seen in a long, long time. The Red River Valley will be smack dab in the middle of the warmest air and temperatures will climb to a more seasonal 5 or 6°C before a cold front pushes through in the evening.

Unfortunately, it appears we’ll see a return to below-normal temperatures after that. Exactly how cold is uncertain, however we’ll likely see plenty of “below normal” due to the extensive snow pack that still has a long way to go until it’s melted. On the bright side, it won’t be long until “below normal” will still be above freezing…

March to end with a Bang

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This March not only came in like a lion, it will also go out like a lion. A major winter storm will slam the American Red River Valley and parts of south-eastern Manitoba today. Read on for the details.

A Colorado Low will bring heavy snow to parts of southern Manitoba and the northern United States on Monday
A Colorado Low will bring heavy snow to parts of southern Manitoba and the northern United States on Monday

Monday

Monday
-9°C / -15°C
Snow, heavy in some areas. Windy.

A Colorado Low will bring heavy snow and high winds to the Red River Valley and south-eastern Manitoba today. Wind speeds will range from 40-50km/h gusting to 50-70km/h. Some areas may even see winds as high as 60km/h gusting to 80km/h for a period of time. This will produce blizzard conditions in open areas of the Red River Valley and south-eastern Manitoba. The map below illustrates the expected snowfall totals.

Expected storm-total snowfall amounts.
Expected storm-total snowfall amounts.

Travel will become very difficult, if not impossible from points south of Winnipeg and into the American Red River Valley as the day progresses. Highway closures are likely through the day, with some roadways possibly staying closed until Tuesday. Roads that remain open will be in poor shape as well, so those traveling today may need to reconsider their plans.

This storm will wind down on Tuesday as the snow ends and the wind begins to decrease. However, those areas that saw the heaviest snow will have to deal with large snow drifts on Tuesday. Travel will be difficult if not impossible, particularly in the American Red River Valley, on most of Monday and likely into Tuesday as well. Luckily this storm should signal the beginning of the end of the seemingly endless winter we’ve endured.

Tuesday

Tuesday
-8°C / -22°C
Mainly Sunny

Tuesday will be a much calmer day in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will warm into the minus single digits, but a north-west wind will linger as Monday’s storm departs. At least it will be decent shoveling weather…

Wednesday

Wednesday
-4°C / -18°C
Mainly Sunny

Wednesday will see further improvement over Tuesday, as temperatures climb into the low to mid minus single digits. That should be good enough for some light melting of snow off dark surfaces – melting that can’t come soon enough for most people.

Long Range

The long range forecast is looking good for a change. Most models suggest we’ll see near normal weather in the short to medium term, which means high temperatures in the mid positive single digits. That should help to gradually start wearing down our snow pack.

Clipper System Brings Brief Warm-Up

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Temperatures are forecast to rise above 0°C by Saturday evening.
Temperatures are forecast to rise above 0°C by Saturday evening.

A low pressure system moving through the region on Saturday will bring a chance of snow and only slightly below normal temperatures to Winnipeg, however another Arctic ridge will plunge southwards behind the system returning us into the icy grip of winter as temperatures fall 10 to 15°C below normal. This is starting to look very similar to last year: the winter that wouldn’t quit, until suddenly it did. This December to March period will go down as one of the top 15 coldest on record, and not a single one of those top 15 coldest winters was followed by a notably above-normal April[1]. This means while milder weather is on tap, we’ll likely only be looking at returning to near-seasonal averages, especially while we still have such a significant snow pack on the ground.

Today will see temperatures climb to around -5°C by the late afternoon despite our fairly cold start this morning. Such large swings in temperature now are possible because our cold air is in a thin layer right near the surface[2] and the increasingly strong March sun is more able to effectively warm up all of the cold air. Winds will be light as we sit right underneath a ridge of high pressure.

Friday
-5°C / -13°C
Sunny.

Saturday
+1°C / -3°C
Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow.

Sunday
⇓ -6°C / -20°C
Chance of flurries in the morning, then clearing & windy.

Saturday will be the warmest day we see for a while but unfortunately the weather won’t be all that pleasant to be outside. The temperature will start off around -13°C or so first thing in the morning and begin to climb as the approaching low pressure system pushes warmer air over the province ahead if it. The low pressure system will be running into a fairly stubborn ridge, however, and by mid-morning winds will begin to pick up and climb to 30-40km/h by the early afternoon with gusts to nearly 60km/h. A warm front should lift northeastwards through the Red River Valley through the afternoon, and temperatures behind the front will climb just over the freezing mark to around +1°C.

There will likely be some light snow produced ahead of the warm front as it lifts northeastwards, however right now it looks fairly weak and disorganized with no significant amounts expected. Skies will remain mixed-to-mostly-cloudy Saturday night as the temperature drops to around -2°C. The stronger winds will taper off behind the warm front and light winds are expected throughout the night.

Sunday will start off cloudy with a slight chance of flurries as the cold front associated with the system pushes through the region. Behind the cold front skies will clear and gusty northerly winds to 30-40km/h will pick up. The breezy winds will usher colder air into the province and temperatures will fall to around -5 or -6°C by Sunday evening. Temperatures will drop to around -20°C, or perhaps a bit colder, under clear skies on Sunday night.

That hope on the horizon? Still there!

On Wednesday we mentioned that there was some hope on the horizon for warmer weather, and it’s still there! The latest NAEFS 8-14 day temperature anomaly forecast is showing a general push towards seasonal temperatures across much of the Prairies as April gets going. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the low single-digits by the middle of next week, and the general “near normal” trend of the NAEFS hints that we may actually be heading into a more prolonged period of seasonal weather with daytime highs above 0°C.

The NAEFS 8-14 day outlook is showing near-normal temperatures for Southern Manitoba.
The NAEFS 8-14 day outlook is showing near-normal temperatures for Southern Manitoba.

Anything to melt the snow will be a welcome site to winter-weary Winnipeggers. As pointed out over by JJ over at his Winnipeg Weather blog, this December to March period will be the coldest one in 115 years with the next coldest being the winter of 1898-99. With last night’s low dropping below -20°C, Rob pointed out over at Rob’s Obs that it will mark the 15th time this month temperatures have dropped below -20°C; typically that only happens 5 times in March.[3]

  1. The 1872 to 2013 mean temperature – an average of both the highs and the lows – is 3.5°C.  ↩
  2. Instead of a very deep layer, like we would see in January or February.  ↩
  3. Apparently I’ve dropped the ball by waiting until March was <em>over</em> before calculating my March statistics!  ↩