New Year…Same Old News

Happy New Year! Hope you didn’t expect any significant shift in our weather pattern because the cold air is here to stay. A brief reprieve may be seen as a system slides through by week’s end, but the cold air is set to return behind it.

Wednesday

-27°C / -34°C
Mainly sunny; cold.
Thursday

-24°C / -26°C
Mainly sunny. Increasing cloud with a chance of light snow overnight.
Friday

-14°C / -25°C
Periods of light snow, 2-5cm. Clearing overnight.

We’ll see another very cold day today with any remaining clouds clearing out this morning as we march towards a daytime high of just –27°C or so. Temperatures will drop to around –34°C tonight under clear skies. Tomorrow will bring mainly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures as a system pushing eastwards into the Prairies begins bringing some slightly warmer air eastwards. Our high should reach around –24°C while the warmer air becomes much more apparent with our overnight low which will be comparatively balmy around –26°C. Clouds will push in overnight with a slight chance of some light snow before morning.

Snow Likely on Friday

Friday will likely bring light snow to Winnipeg as a low pressure system works through Manitoba. The bulk of the snow will through the Interlake into Central Manitoba, but we’ll likely see the white stuff here in the Red River Valley as well. It looks like most places will see around 2–4cm of snow, however it’s possible that we sneak into the 5–8cm range if things end up just a little heavier than currently forecast. At this point, it looks like Winnipeg would likely see 4–5cm of snow; we’ll be sure to update this if need be as the system gets closer.

A benefit to the cloud and snow will be warmer weather; temperatures should climb to around –14°C on Friday. Skies will clear overnight and we’ll drop down into the mid-minus twenties.

Cold Air Returns

Yet another shot of extremely cold Arctic air is set to move back into Manitoba behind this system. Daytime highs will likely sit in the mid-minus 20’s through the weekend with overnight lows near –30°C, but the cold air should work it’s way into the region early next week, bringing another round of extremely cold temperatures.

2013 In Review

As it’s now 2014, I’ve already begun working on the 2013 statistics for Winnipeg. I hope to have a post ready within a couple weeks with a complete summary of the year past that will put into perspective where last year sat in the big picture!

Cold Enough for You?

December will end just as it began – COLD. The New Year will be ushered in by frigid temperatures, with no end in sight to the big cold.

”It

It will be extremely cold to start the week.

The Week Ahead

Monday

Mix of Sun and Cloud
-27°C / -37°C
Tuesday

Increasing Cloudiness
-28°C / -34°C
Wednesday

Clearing late
-23°C / -34°C

Monday

The Cold Poll Outcome
The cold poll outcome.

Today will be just another cold day. Luckily the wind won’t be particularly strong, though that’s little consolation. Tonight will be extremely cold, with low temperatures near -40C not out of the question in some traditional cold spots. It doesn’t look like Winnipeg will hit the -40C mark, but it could be close.

With extremely cold temperatures on the way tonight, take part and guess exactly how cold it’s going to get!

Tuesday

After a very cold start to the morning on Tuesday, it won’t warm up much. High temperatures are expected to remain near -30C, but winds will remain light as we languish under a strong surface high pressure system.

Wednesday

Temperatures may rise a bit from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning as some cloud cover moves in. However, Wednesday will remain quite cold, with high temperatures still in the minus twenties. The wind will once again remain light, which about about the only good thing that can be said about the weather early this week.

Long Range

The long range outlook continues to look very ugly indeed. I have few positive things to say on this topic, so I’ll just leave it at that.

Alberta Clipper To Bring Snow and Extreme Cold

Conditions will change dramatically this weekend with no thanks to an Alberta clipper system that will spread snow into Southern Manitoba tonight and usher in extremely cold Arctic air1 to the region on it’s back side. Before that system arrives tonight, however, we’ll get to enjoy a beautiful day with temperatures climbing towards the 0°C mark!

Friday

-2°C / -18°C
Mostly cloudy and warm. Chance of an afternoon flurry. Snow beginning overnight.
Saturday

⇒ -18°C / -32°C
Snow. Windy with blowing snow. Cold.
Sunday

-26°C / -33°C
Mainly sunny. Very cold.

Today will be an exceedingly pleasant day for what has been a markedly cold December. Thanks to a flow of mild Pacific air brought in by westerly winds ahead of the Alberta clipper, we’ll see our temperature climb to around –3 or –2°C today with relatively light winds. Skies will likely remain mostly cloudy through much of the day with the cloud cover being bolstered by the warm temperatures over the snow and a weaker leading impulse tracking through the Interlake. We may see a few breaks in the cloud here or there, particularly through the mid-to-late afternoon period. Unfortunately, that’s where the good news ends. An Alberta clipper is on the way, and it’s a doozy.

Total new snowfall by Saturday evening. Anywhere from 5 to 15cm can be expected along the main frontal zone.
Total new snowfall by Saturday evening. Anywhere from 5 to 15cm can be expected along the main frontal zone.

The system will begin spreading snow into the Red River Valley overnight along a line cutting across the northern Red River Valley. The heaviest band of snow will set up along the main frontal zone aloft which will be aligned roughly from Dauphin to Winnipeg and ESE into the Whiteshell. Underneath the heaviest band of snow around 5-10cm of snow can be expected by Saturday morning with amounts tapering to just 2-3cm near the US border. In addition to the snow, a cold front will begin to slump southwards late overnight which will usher in much cooler air. We’ll see temperatures drop to around –18°C with winds shifting out of the north.

Saturday

Saturday will be…miserable. Our temperature will remain steady near around –18°C as cold air continues to infiltrate into Southern Manitoba. Snow will persist through much of the day — although it will likely lighten to just a few flurries by the late afternoon — with another 2–5cm expected to fall across the Red River Valley which will bring storm-total snowfall amounts to around 5cm in areas on the fringes of the system track and anywhere from around 7–15cm under the heaviest band of snow. The winds will become more of an issue on Saturday as they increase out of north to 30–40km/h with gusts as high as 60km/h. These winds, aided by the fresh snowfall, will create areas of poor visibility in blowing snow, especially on any west-east running highways.

Please note: Driving conditions will likely be extremely poor on Saturday morning. In addition to the blowing snow, roads will likely be extremely slippery; the warm temperatures on Friday will likely produce moisture on road surfaces which will rapidly freeze overnight. On Saturday morning, roads will likely be icy with fresh snow on top and blowing snow on top of that. If you need to travel, carry a winter survival kit and give yourself lots of time to reach your destination.

The system will move out on Saturday night bringing clearing skies and extremely cold temperatures as an Arctic airmass settles over the region. Our overnight low will bottom out at about –32°C with fairly light winds.

Sunday

Sunday will be a mainly sunny but very cold day. The temperature will only recover to the low minus 20’s. Winds will remain light — little consolation given the temperatures, though. It’ll drop to around –33°C on Sunday night under clear skies.

When Will It End?

The latest NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook is calling for below-normal temperatures for Manitoba.
The latest NAEFS 8–14 day temperature outlook is calling for below-normal temperatures for Manitoba.

Unfortunately, all signs point to the cold weather sticking around for at least the next 4–7 days, if not longer. The NAEFS guidance shows below-normal temperatures expected in the 8–14 day range while all the shorter-range models show cold weather through the next week. The GFS is hinting at a system that might push through late next week that would bring slightly milder temperatures, but it would be short-lived and doesn’t look indicative of a pattern change.

It looks like we’ll definitely be closing out December 2013 as one of the Top 5 coldest Decembers on record in Winnipeg with little reprieve on the horizon. So go enjoy the last nice day of 2013 and then get your long johns ready, plug in the car, get a warm drink, fill up the hot water bottle, renew your CAA membership and whatever else you need to do to prepare for another prolonged bout of extreme cold.


  1. I’m doing my best to not use the phrase “bitterly cold” in today’s blog.  ↩

Santa Delivers A Break From the Deep Freeze

Merry Christmas!

All of us here at A Weather Moment would like to take just a moment to wish you and your families a very Merry Christmas! It’s been a wonderful year here at A Weather Moment and I want to thank you for dropping by — whether this is the first time you’ve ever been to the site or come here regularly — to see what we have to say about the weather. I hope that you find (or continue to find!) what we do here of value and continue to stop by for your weather forecasts, summaries and news!

Holiday Forecast

At the risk of sounding like a broken record that simply utters the phrase “deep freeze” over and over again, I’m glad to let everyone know that we all get perhaps the most wonderful Christmas gift that could be given to us this year: a break from the deep freeze. The next few days will bring temperatures near-then-surpassing our normal temperatures for this year as warmer air floods eastwards across the Prairies.

Christmas Day

-15°C / -25°C
Mixed skies with a chance of afternoon flurries.
Boxing Day

-11°C / ⇒ -10°C
Cloudy periods with seasonal temperatures. Chance of flurries in the morning.
Friday

-4°C / -17°C
Mixed skies and warm. Slight chance of light, isolated flurries.

We’ll see mixed skies today with a daytime high of around –15°C and a chance of some afternoon flurry activity as a weak upper disturbance makes it’s way over our area. No significant accumulations are expected. Winds will be a fairly steady 20km/h or so out of the northwest. We’ll continue to see mixed skies through the overnight period as the temperature drops to around –25°C.

Tomorrow will bring cloudy periods with fairly seasonal temperatures as the mercury climbs to around –11°C. A few flurries are possible in the morning as a weak upper-level warm front pushes eastwards over the Red River Valley. Winds will be fairly light out of the south at only around 15–20km/h. Overcast conditions are expected on Thursday night as a warm front pushes eastwards through the region. Little-to-no precipitation is expected with it as it manages to keep our temperature steady near around –10°C.

Friday will again bring mixed skies, although we do have a chance at becoming mainly sunny for a decent amount of time sometime between the late morning and mid-afternoon period. There’s a slight chance of an isolated flurry or two, but nothing worth going into any detail about. The temperature will climb to a balmy –4°C or so thanks to westerly winds bringing in much milder air.

GDPS precipitation accumluations from Friday evening to Saturday evening show a swath of 10-20cm of snow just north of Winnipeg.
GDPS precipitation accumluations from Friday evening to Saturday evening show a swath of 10–20cm of snow just north of Winnipeg.

Snow will push in overnight as a powerful Alberta Clipper moves into the region. It’s still too early to make any precise predictions, but it appears that the track of the system will bring the heaviest band of snow through the Southern Interlake region with anywhere from 10–20cm of new snow on the ground by the end of Saturday. Amounts drop off to 2–5cm in the Southern Red River Valley. Here in Winnipeg it could end up being a major snowfall; cold air has a tendency to be a bit of a bigger bully than the models let it be and shift storm tracks further south. It wouldn’t take too much shifting for that 10–20cm band to move right over Winnipeg. It’s all too early to tell specifics at the moment, though; it’s fairly likely we’ll see accumulating snow Friday night/Saturday morning, the only question is will it be a little or a lot? We’ll have more details on the system in Friday’s post once things have a chance to develop more.

The Weekend

Things go downhill from there, unfortunately. Another shot of bitterly cold Arctic air[1] will push into the Prairies which will push our daytime highs back into the –20’s and overnight lows to near or below –30°C. Unfortunately, it also looks like it’s going to stick around until at least the middle of next week, if not longer.

So enjoy your Christmas present of a pretty nice 3 days and get out there while you can! From all of us here at A Weather Moment, we wish you and your families a very Merry Christmas and all the best in the coming year!


  1. Have we used this phrase enough to be able to ™ it yet?  ↩