Author: Scott

Scott grew up in Steinbach, Manitoba and joined A Weather Moment in January of 2012. Prior to his involvement with AWM he operated a website called Steinbach Weather, from 2007 until 2011. Steinbach Weather had many similarities to AWM, making for a smooth transition to his new meteorological home. Scott currently writes the Monday morning at AWM and also contributes to some of the unique products available at AWM, including the Manitoba Mesonet. Scott holds a B.Sc. (Hons) in Physical Geography from the University of Manitoba, with specialization in Atmospheric Science. He is currently working on a Master's Degree at the University of Manitoba, with a focus on elevated convection.

Cooling Down a Bit

March 16, 2015March 15, 2015 Scott Leave a comment

This week will see somewhat cooler conditions than what we experienced on the weekend, but temperatures will remain above-seasonal nonetheless.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler this week as cooler air floods in from the north

Monday

3°C / -3°C

Mainly cloudy

Today will be mainly cloudy as extensive upper cloud moves through southern Manitoba. Some precipitation will pass to our south early in the day, potentially giving us a light shower or flurry. Temperatures will certainly be cooler than the record “heat” of Sunday, but with highs in the low single digits, conditions will still be above-seasonal. A chilly north wind will be responsible for ushering in these cooler conditions and also add a slight wind chill factor throughout the day.

Tuesday

2°C / -5°C

Mix of sun and cloud

Tuesday will be similar to Monday temperature-wise, but it should be a sunnier day. Skies will be a mix of sun and cloud with breezy north-west winds. A light shower or flurry will be possible due to some low-level instability developing, but any accumulations will be small.

Wednesday

4°C / -6°C

Mix of sun and cloud

Wednesday will once again see temperatures in the low single digits under a mixture of sun and cloud. There is a slight chance of a shower or flurry again, though the chance will be lower than on Tuesday. Winds will be light and from the south.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests we should see generally above-seasonal conditions for the rest of the month. Now that our snow cover is gone the ground can effectively absorb solar radiation, converting it to sensible heat. As the ground dries out this process will become even more efficient. Our normal temperatures will gradually increase over the next few weeks, meaning that above-seasonal weather today will become more normal by month’s end. There is no sign of any significant precipitation in the forecast at this time, so flooding should remain minimal in the Red River Valley this spring.

The Melt Begins

March 9, 2015March 8, 2015 Scott Leave a comment

The spring snow melt will begin in earnest this week as temperatures soar to above-seasonal values.

Monday

5°C / -2°C

Mix of sun and cloud

Today will be well above-seasonal with high temperatures reaching into the mid single digits. We’ll see skies that are a mixture of sun and cloud as some mid and upper cloud streams through from the north-west. Since there will be a lot of snow melting, some fog patches may develop overnight due to the increase in moisture. It will most certainly be another bad day if you happen to be made of ice!

Tuesday

4°C / 0°C

Mainly sunny

Tuesday will see similar conditions to Monday. Temperatures will once again be in the mid single digits with a westerly wind. Skies should be mainly sunny making for yet another beautiful day.

Wednesday

3°C / 0°C

Mainly cloudy

Some clouds will roll in for Wednesday, but temperatures will remain mild. Highs should be in the low to mid single digits under mainly cloudy conditions. We may even see a light rain or snow shower, but accumulations will be minimal. Wednesday will be a gloomier day, but warm nonetheless.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to look very good. Models suggest that we will see above-seasonal temperatures stick around until at least mid-March. Given the warm weather expected this week, it’s likely that most of our snow will disappear quite quickly. Once the snow is gone the ground will be less reflective, allowing more sunlight to be absorbed, giving us systematically warmer temperatures. Sounds pretty good, doesn’t it!

Cooling Down Again

March 2, 2015March 4, 2015 Scott Leave a comment

We’ll have a warm, but windy, Monday before another arctic cold front comes through, returning below-normal temperatures to the region.

Monday

-6°C / -18°C

Mainly sunny

Today will be warm, but windy as a strong southerly flow develops ahead of a cold front. Wind speeds will be 40km/h gusting to 60km/h, making it feel significantly colder than it will actually be. High temperatures in the mid to upper minus single digits will end up feeling more like -15 to -20 when you factor in the wind.

Tuesday

-16°C / -24°C

Mainly cloudy with flurries

An arctic cold front will move through early on Tuesday, ushering in colder weather once again. As the cold front goes through we’ll also see some flurries, but accumulations will be small. Wind speeds will really pick up in association with this front, with north-west winds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h for much of the day. This will send wind chill values close to -30.

Wednesday

-21°C / -28°C

Mix of sun and cloud with chance of flurries

Wednesday will be even colder than Tuesday as arctic air becomes entrenched in southern Manitoba. High temperatures will be near -20, with the wind chill making it feel more like the -30s. We may also see some light flurries throughout the day as the low-levels of the atmosphere become unstable.

Long Range

Long range models suggest we’ll begin to see more frequent warm weather by next weekend. This will be the result of a western ridge extending further east into Manitoba. That doesn’t mean all the snow is suddenly going to disappear, but it will certainly be more pleasant. March 1 was the beginning of meteorological spring, so it’s just a matter of time before spring actually arrives!