Severe Thunderstorm Threat To Start the Week

Winnipeg’s week will start off with hot and humid conditions developing ahead of a trough of low pressure. As it moves into the region, it will bring a risk of severe thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon. Unsettled conditions will continue through Tuesday before settling for Wednesday.

Today’s main weather-maker will be a trough of low pressure slowly working into the region. To start the day, the city might see some showers or thunderstorms if the overnight convection that started in Saskatchewan makes it this far. Then, temperatures will rise into the upper 20s through the morning with increasingly humid conditions. As the trough slumps southwards this afternoon, it will bring a broad severe thunderstorm threat to the region. The hot and humid conditions will provide ample energy for thunderstorms, the trough will focus development, and winds will be aligned in a way that will support long-lived thunderstorms. All manners of severe weather will be possible this afternoon and into the evening. Be sure to stay aware of any watches or warnings issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada.

ECCC is forecasting a threat of severe thunderstorms over southern Manitoba today.
ECCC is forecasting a threat of severe thunderstorms over southern Manitoba today.

You can view Environment and Climate Change Canada’s thunderstorm outlook and discussion for today in our Bulletin Viewer.

The thunderstorm threat will persist into the evening with the thunderstorm activity moving out of the province near midnight. Temperatures will dip to a low near 19°C with light winds.

Showers or thunderstorms are on the way for much of the Red River Valley on Tuesday as a low pressure system moves along the American border. Temperatures will be cooler near 23°C, but the humid conditions will stay in place. The city will see light northeasterly winds of 10 to 20 km/h through the day. Heading into the night, the city will still see a good chance for showers. As the low moves off to the east, winds will pick up out of the northwest to around 30 gusting 50 km/h and persist into Wednesday morning. Winnipeg should see a low near 16°C with some of the humidity easing overnight.

The city will see a chance for showers Wednesday morning, then skies will clear midday leaving the city with plenty of sun. Temperatures will climb to a high near 24 or 25°C with winds easing to around 20 km/h in the afternoon. The winds will usher the humidity out, making for more comfortable conditions in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip to a low near 15°C on Wednesday night with a few clouds and light winds.

While many parts of the Red River Valley will appreciate rain, it’s always difficult to pinpoint where – and how much – any one place will get when dealing with convective systems like these. That said, it seems possible that several areas may see 15 to 35 mm of rain by Wednesday morning. Locally, some areas could see less or more depending on how exactly the convection develops.

Long Range Outlook

The rest of the week will bring daytime highs in the upper 20s and overnight lows in the mid- to upper-teens. Another low pressure passing through on Thursday night will bring another chance of showers or thunderstorms to the region. Looking towards the weekend, Saturday looks quite nice, but by Sunday hot and unstable conditions are forecast to return to the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.


Brad lives in Winnipeg with his wife and two children and is the founder of A Weather Moment. He has loved weather from a very young age and has followed that passion through his life so far. He received a B.Sc. in Earth Sciences with Specialization in Atmospheric Sciences and is currently employed in the field of meteorology. You can find the author as WeatherInThePeg on Mastodon.

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