After a stretch of weather that brought record breaking temperatures, record breaking dew points, and new daily rainfall records[1] before shifting into a weird weather pattern that brought moderate-to-heavy snow to much of southern Manitoba (with a rather beautiful aftermath, pictured above), the weather over the coming days will be downright dull as a benign pattern brings seasonal temperatures to Winnipeg.
In a rather nice change of pace, there isn’t too much to talk about regarding this weekend’s weather. Near-seasonal temperatures will be in place throughout the weekend with daytime highs hovering in the 0 to +2°C range while overnight lows hover between -6 to -8°C. Skies will progressively become more cloudy with a sunny day today, a few clouds tomorrow, and mixed skies on Sunday, but no precipitation is expected. Winds will remain quite calm throughout the weekend with the strongest winds on Sunday at just 20km/h or so.
Long Range: More Active Week Ahead
Next week is looking a little more active with a storm system expected to move through on Monday night & Tuesday. It’s too early to try and pin down too many specifics, but overall it appears that it will spread 5-10cm of snow across Southern Manitoba followed by some gusty northerly winds that may produce some local blowing snow.
The GDPS is showing a solution further south than other long-range models, pushing Tuesday’s system southwards into the United States
Towards the end of next weak it also appears that we may see another weak disturbance produce some light snow over the region.
Temperatures will be fairly consistent next week with daytime highs and overnight lows expected to be near-seasonal.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 0°C while the seasonal overnight low is -10°C.
The shift back to closer-to-seasonal weather will feel like quite an abrupt change given the marked warmth that’s been in place much of March so far. Fortunately, even with the cooler weather, daytime highs will remain above the freezing mark, and with little snow left and not too much expected to fall, it gets harder and harder for the cold air to stick around[1] as the sun continues to increase in strength.
The low pressure that brought yesterday’s rainfall to the Red River Valley will dominate the weather for two more days before things gradually shift to a more neutral set-up.
Some say what goes up must come down, and while not typically true about the weather, today we’ll see the area of precipitation that pushed northwards into Central Manitoba slump back southwards throughout the day as an inverted trough extending west-northwestward a from the main low pressure system in NW Ontario rotates southwards around the low. This will result in some showers and cooler air pushing into the Red River Valley through the day. As the precipitation moves in from the northeast, the rain will—at some point—switch over to snow. The flurries will continue through the evening and overnight before tapering off on Thursday morning.
12hour preciptation accumulations forecasted for Wednesday afternoon & evening from the RDPS.
Temperatures will climb to around 3-4°C this afternoon and then drop with the cooler air to a low near -3°C tonight. Winds will fairly breezy today out of the northwest at around 30 km/h with gusts up to 50km/h or so. To the southwest of Winnipeg, winds will likely be a bit stronger at 40 gusting 60 km/h. The winds will ease tonight as the axis of the inverted trough moves into the region.
Thursday will be an unexciting day compared to the past week. Any lingering flurries will taper off early in the morning and leave Winnipeg with mainly cloudy skies and temperatures gradually climbing towards a high of 2°C. Winds will be out of the north at 20-30km/h. Skies will remain cloudy tonight as temperatures dip to a low near -3°C with winds slowly easing off.
Friday will once again bring mainly cloudy skies and a high temperature near 3°C. Winds will be light and no precipitation is expected. Skies will remain fairly cloudy on Friday night as the temperature drops to a low near -2°C.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -11°C.
Long Range: Continuing Cloudy, Chance of Flurries
Heading into the weekend, it looks like we’ll likely continue to see a fair amount of cloud as a weak trough remains in the region. While Winnipeg won’t likely see any snow, there is a very slight chance of some flurry activity through the region. Should any snow develop, amounts are expected to be minimal and in most cases likely won’t even accumulate. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly above seasonal.
The weather will turn more active next week as a zonal flow develops aloft and multiple shortwaves ripple across the Prairies. Multiple storm systems are forecast to track through next week, each bringing a mix of wintery precipitation. Temperatures will remain slightly warmer than seasonal through the period.
Snow is so effective at keeping temperatures cool due to its white colour. Snow can reflect much of the sun’s energy, limiting the ability for temperatures to warm up. Once the snow cover is reduced or eliminated, the darker ground absorbs more sun and helps temperatures warm up more quickly. ↩
We’ll see one more nice day today before a potentially significant weather system affects us on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain and snow is expected in southern Manitoba with this system, but exact amounts remain unclear.
Today will be another very nice day. Temperatures will climb into the mid teens over much of southern Manitoba, allowing our snow melt to continue. Many rural parts of southern Manitoba are already snow-free, but there is still snow to melt in sheltered areas. Skies will be mainly sunny, with breezy south-east winds.
A major low pressure system will affect southern Manitoba this week
A major low pressure system is expected to affect southern Manitoba on Tuesday and Wednesday. This system will bring a combination of rain and snow, which makes it difficult to forecast. At this time it appears that rain will be the main mode of precipitation over the Red River Valley. Models disagree widely on potential accumulation, so it is difficult to say exactly how much rain will fall. A “best guess” is that Winnipeg will see about 5-15 mm of rain. More or less rain could fall depending on how the system evolves.
We will continue to be under the influence of this system on Wednesday, but temperatures will fall as we experience a stiff north-westerly flow. As a result of this cold air surging in from the north, rain is expected to change over to snow, with a couple centimetres of accumulation being possible. The exact amount of snow will depend on how much the system stalls over our area and how much cold air manages to infiltrate southern Manitoba. High temperatures on Wednesday are currently expected to be near 2C, which would not favour large accumulations.
Long Range
The end of the week is expected to be colder as the system from earlier in the week pulls down colder air from the north. Longer range models suggest that the second half of March will see a cooler pattern with outbreaks of colder arctic air. However, if we remain mainly snow-free following this week’s system, it will be difficult for very cold conditions to last long as the darker soil will be able to absorb much more sunlight than snow would.
The sunny weather is arriving later than expected in Winnipeg no thanks to persistent low cloud that simply wouldn’t leave the region despite clear skies working in on either side of the Red River Valley. With that behind us, though, the warm weather arrives today alongside plenty of sunshine for what will be the start to a beautiful weekend in the Winnipeg area.
A fairly pleasant day is on the way today with the sun finally making an appearance, sending temperatures well above normal and close to record values. The mercury will climb towards the 10°C mark this afternoon, slightly short of the record value of 12.8°C that was at in 2012. The wind will be fairly gusty out of the south this morning and will shift to breezy out of the west behind a warm front that passes through midday.
Skies will be mixed as some remnants of yesterday’s low cloud clear out and are replaced by variable cloud from the warm front moving through the region. We will see sunshine today, particularly once the drier westerly winds kick in and flush out any remaining moisture stuck in the Valley.
The overnight low is expected to dip down to around -1°C tonight under partly cloudy skies and diminishing winds.
Saturday will be the nicest day of the of the weekend with partly cloudy skies, relatively light winds and very mild temperatures. The daytime high on Saturday will climb to around 10-11°C, a potentially record-breaking high for March 12th.
Mild air continues to flow over Southern Manitoba on Saturday night as southerly winds increase ahead of an incoming trough of low pressure. Winds will increase to around 30-40km/h late Saturday. The warmer air moving in alongside the wind will keep overnight lows fairly mild; the temperature will dip only to 2 or 3°C on Saturday night.
The GDPS precipitation forecast for Sunday afternoon into the evening.
Sunday will be a mild day but the weather will turn cloudier and potentially wet. A trough of low pressure moving into the province will result in a cloudier day with a high once again near 11°C. Heading into the afternoon, the chance for some rain will increase throughout the Red River Valley and areas east. Significant rainfall is not expected[1], but for the areas that end up seeing any precipitation, a few mm may be possible. The cloud will help temperatures remain very mild on Sunday night with temperatures expected to dip to near 4°C.
New Record Temperatures?
We have the potential of breaking some record temperatures over the next few days, particularly on Saturday and Sunday.
Daily Record High and Record Warm Minimum Temperatures for Winnipeg, MB
Date
Record High
Record Warm Min
March 11
12.8°C (2012)
2.8°C (1878)
March 12
9.7°C (2012)
2.5°C (2012)
March 13
12.2°C (1902)
1.6°C (1995)
Saturday’s high near 10°C will challenge the 3 year old record from 2012. Saturday night’s low near 2 or 3°C combined with Sunday night’s low near 4°C may challenge the record warmest low temperature for March 13, which currently sits at 1.6°C and was set in 1995.
Sunday’s high temperature is not expected to reach the current record of 12.2°C set in 1902. The low near -1°C on Friday night will prevent the record warm low temperature for March 12th of 2.5°C set in 2012 from being broken.
Long Range: Mild & Unsettled
Heading into next week the forecast is for continued warmth for the first half of the week and then a return towards seasonal values through the second half.
GDPS forecast temperatures for Winnipeg, MB
Regarding precipitation, most of any potential will be tied up in a mid-week low pressure system that will usher in the cooler temperatures. It appears like it will be a complex mess of multiple low pressure systems merging into a vortex over Northern Ontario, so at this point it would be an exercise in futility to try and make any guesses on what any one place will see from that system. It’s probably safe to say that there will be a chance for rain changing to snow mid-week.
But, before then, enjoy the spring warmth!
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -12°C.
Although, as shown above, the GDPS is forecasting convective elements that could produce 10-20mm of rain, I’m not convinced at this point that potential will be realized. I’ll post an update in the comments below if Sunday looks like it may produce some heavier showers. ↩
