Things will seem decidely early-April as extremely cool air settles in over the eastern Prairies bringing another stretch of days with temperatures some 10-15°C below normal. Seasonal weather doesn’t look to return until the end of the week when the cold air finally begins being shunted off to the east.
Wednesday
7°C / -4°C
Mainly cloudy. Clearing in the evening.
Thursday
10°C / -1°C
A few clouds.
Friday
12°C / 3°C
Mainly sunny. Cloudy periods overnight.
We’ll see a mainly cloudy sky today as we remain stuck under cloud wrapping around the backside of the low pressure system that impacted Winnipeg and the Red River Valley over the weekend and the first half of the week. Accompanying the cloud cover will be extremely cool temperatures for mid-May; the daytime high today will only reach 6 or 7°C, 10-15°C below the seasonal high of 19°C. The cloud cover looks to begin clearing out ovenright as we drop down to a low of -4°C, again nearly 10°C below our seasonal low temperature for this time of year. No precipitation is expected today or tonight.
Tomorrow will bring a few clouds as we sit on the fringe of the organized cloud pushing off to our east and then see some afternoon cumulus clouds develop. Temperatures will moderate a little to around 10°C, however that’s still nearly 10°C below normal for this time of year. We’ll drop to a low of around -1°C overnight under clear skies.
Friday will bring plenty of sunshine with just a few clouds through the afternoon hours. We’ll see a high temperature of around 12°C as milder air continues to slowly push eastwards. There will be a few cloudy periods overnight as a weak disturbance moves thorugh and we’ll see an overnight low near 3°C. Precipitation is unlikely with this disturbance.
Returning to Near-Normal on the Weekend
Things will get back into form by the end of the weekend as the cold trough finally collapses and pushes well off to the east, allowing milder air to spill across the Prairies. Saturday looks like it will have a high somewhere in the mid-teens followed by temperatures near 20°C on Sunday. The weekend looks to be a bit of a mixed bag with sunny skies and relatively light winds on Saturday, but more cloud and stronger winds developing on Sunday as a warm front pushes into the region ahead of a low approaching from Wyoming. Areas all across Southern Manitoba may end up wtih the threat of some showers or rain activity by Sunday aftenroon. We’ll have more details on this system in Friday’s blog post.
After a nice weekend, we’re in for a nasty work-week. More rain and chilly temperatures are on the way.
Rain is expected in south-eastern Manitoba on Monday
Monday
Monday
9°C / 5°C
Rain
Today will see rainy weather return, or continue, in southern Manitoba, depending on where you live. Western sections of the province should remain mostly dry, but south-eastern sections will be getting wet, as another strong weather system moves up from the south. Rainfall accumulations of 10-20mm are expected in Winnipeg with 15-25mm in areas south-east of the city, including Steinbach. Locally higher amounts are possible in the south-east corner of Manitoba where heavier rain bands will likely develop. The rain will be accompanied by a strong northerly wind, just adding to the misery!
Tuesday
Tuesday
9°C / -1°C
Mix of Sun and Cloud. Chance of Showers.
There may be some lingering rain showers on Tuesday morning in south-eastern Manitoba, and some more pop-up showers in the afternoon, but generally speaking Tuesday will be a dry day. It will also be a fairly crummy day, with a cool airmass of Arctic origins surging southward into the province. High temperatures aren’t likely to crack the double digits in most areas.
Wednesday
Wednesday
8°C / -2°C
Mix of Sun and Cloud. Chance of Showers.
Wednesday will see a continuation of Tuesday’s nasty, cool conditions, with even colder Arctic air surging southward. Once again, temperatures are not expected to reach double-digits, except for maybe far western sections of southern Manitoba. Pop-up showers may develop in the afternoon, just to cap things off!
Long Range
We should see temperatures return to near normal values by the end of the week into the weekend, however no above-normal weather is in store for the foreseeable future.
There will be only a couple days of sun before the threat for rain returns to the Red River Valley.
After a few unsettled days across Southern Manitoba which, depending on where you were, brought anywhere from no rain to upwards of 15-25mm, the weather is set to offer refuge from the gloom in the form of sunshine and perhaps the warmest temperatures we’ve seen all year. Unfortunately, the pleasantries will be cut short when another complicated weather set-up involving a large cut-off upper low and multiple impulses travelling northeastwards out of the United States redevelops.
Friday
Friday
15°C / 5°C
Mainly sunny.
Today will be a pleasant day with mainly sunny skies and winds out of the northwest at around 20km/h. The temperature should reach a high around 15 or 16°C, which will likely be the warmest day in Winnipeg since we hit 15.1°C on April 23rd. Unfortunately, this will still be 2-3°C below our seasonal normal.
The normal average temperature and departure from it over the last 90 days in Winnipeg.
Despite the temperatures warming up slowly, the fact that we’ve spent such an unbelievable amount of time with temperatures below normal is what is driving many in Winnipeg to dream of warmer climes. Even last year, which had the latest snowpack melt on record[1] had already seen temperatures as high as 26°C by this point.
Unfortunately, I don’t have much good news in that department.
Saturday
Saturday
18°C / 7°C
Increasing cloudiness late in the day.
Saturday will be the nicest day of the year so far, hands down. Skies will be mostly sunny until the cloud shield associated with the next low pressure system begins creeping into the region in afternoon or evening. Winds will be out of the south at around 20-30km/h and the temperature will skyrocket to take the top spot of 2014 so far…at a seasonal 18-19°C![2].
Saturday night will be mainly cloudy with a chance for showers pushing into the southern Red River Valley overnight. The temperature will drop to around 7°C.
Sunday
Sunday
12°C / 3°C
Cloudy. Periods of rain likely.
Sunday will bring a return to cooler, wetter weather as the weather pattern shifts back into a more unsettled regime. It’s a bit early to get too specific, but it seems likely that some light rain is likely as a low pressure system meanders into the Red River Vally from southwestern Manitoba. The high will be close to 12°C and the low will dip down to 2-3°C.
In 2013, the snow pack did not reach a trace amount until April 27th in Winnipeg. ↩
A couple more days of unsettled weather will give way to some of the warmest temperatures of the year.
The main weather story will be gradual improvement as the week progresses. Currently we’re under the influence of a broad trough of low pressure that has brought scattered showers to the Red River Valley over the past couple days.
A complicated, high-amplitude flow is developing over the eastern Prairies.
Multiple bands of precipitation will be in place over Southern Manitoba today thanks to multiple disturbances and a fair amount of instability. As the upper-level flow finally organizes itself, a Colorado Low eject northeastwards on Thursday bringing potentially significant rainfall to the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba. The unsettled weather will linger through Thursday night but then a weak ridge of high pressure will begin building in from the west, bringing more settled weather with relatively warm temperatures, especially compared to what we’ve been suffering through so far this spring.
Wednesday
12°C / 6°C
Mainly cloudy. Occasional showers likely.
Thursday
12°C / 4°C
Showers, possibly heavy at times. 5-15mm.
Friday
15°C / 5°C
Clearing.
Today
Today will bring mainly cloudy skies to the Red River Valley as a large low pressure complex stretching from Northern Saskatchewan to Colorado slowly begins organizing itself. More organized showers will fall through much of the day west of the Red River Valley through southwest regions and the Parkland with total accumulations around 5-10mm, but here in the valley we will likely only see scraps of elevated convective showers occasionally moving over the area.
I say likely since there is pretty high uncertainty in exactly how this system will evolve today. The band of showers to our west will slowly creep eastwards towards the RRV through the day and likely push into the western Red River Valley this afternoon. There’s a chance that it will continue pushing eastwards, and if that’s the case then we might see some more organized precipitation later in the afternoon into the evening. There’s also a very outside chance that this whole thing bumps eastwards mid-morning and we’re the ones stuck under the showers for the day.
Complicating matters will be a secondary band of precipitation that will develop this afternoon and lift northwards out of North Dakota and Minnesota. It’s currently forecast to just clip SE Manitoba, but if the upper level trough tilts a bit more, which it has been doing more than the models have been forecasting for 2 days now, that band of rain could end up inside the Red River Valley.
As a third complicating factor, there seems to be fairly unstable mid-levels over most of Southern Manitoba, so even if the precipitation stays to our west and east, there will still be a chance for some light showers zipping across the valley.
Total precipitation by Thursday evening from the RDPS. The question is will it even be close to right?
It’s a very complicated setup; most models agree that there will be rain on the western and eastern fringes of the Red River Valley with little in between[1], however slight variations in the actual positions of systems could change things quite dramatically. For that reason I’m say that there’s a good chance we’ll see occasional showers today. We may see more, we may see less, but this is a situation where trying to be any more specific than that will likely be a futile effort.
What is a little more certain is that we’ll see a high near 12°C today with light southeasterly winds.
The threat for showers will continue through the overnight period through most of the Red River Valley. We’ll drop to a low around 5 or 6°C with winds shifting around to the north.
Thursday
Thursday looks to be the most active day. A strong Colorado Low will track into Minnesota, spreading rain ahead of it into Southern Manitoba. Moderate instability aloft coupled with strong lift and enhanced convergence thanks to the deformation zone will result in showers, potentially fairly heavy at times, through much of Southern Manitoba. There may even be a very slight chance of a rumble of thunder or two.
The wet weather will likely last through much of the overnight period as well. By the end, anywhere from 5-15mm of rain seems likely over the Red River Valley; amounts will likely vary over short distances, and it’s impossible to say where will see the most rain until we’re closer to the event. I’d really love to be more specific, but with this rapidly developing, complex system, the models can be quite misleading and the best forecast will come from observing what’s actually happening and how things are developing in real time.
The high temperature on Thursday will be near 11-12°C once again, and the overnight low near 5°C.
Friday and Beyond
The weather finally looks to turn towards a more pleasant pattern for the end of the week. A cut-off cold low will spin aimlessly over the northwestern Prairies, leaving us on the warmer side of things as slightly milder air manages to work its way into the region. No substantial warm push is on the way, but with the cold air locked up well to our northwest, temperatures should manage to climb to around 15-16°C on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
It seems quite likely that we’ll see our warmest day of the year this weekend. Currently, the warmest day we’ve had was a mere 15.1°C on April 23rd, but Saturday looks likely to beat that by a degree or so. Overnight lows are expected to sit near 5-6°C through Friday, Saturday and Sunday, which will be right around normal for this time of year.
Skies should be mainly sunny on Friday and Saturday, however we will likely see some cloud and a very slight chance of a shower on Sunday as a weak low pressure system pushes into western Manitoba.
And I’m inclined to believe it given how often any sort of convective precipitation manages to end up on either side of Winnipeg. ↩
