Those looking for a balmy reprieve from winter are going to have to look into buying plane tickets because there is no end in sight to the below-normal temperatures that have settled in over the region. A very stable pattern has developed which anchors us into a north/northwesterly flow and will continue to tap cold Arctic air and funnel it southwards over the Prairies.
Friday
-18°C / -25°C
Mixed skies.
Saturday
-18°C / -27°C
A few clouds.
Sunday
-17°C / -25°C
A few clouds.
Quiet Weather Ahead
A very quiet few days are ahead of us with little in the way of active weather on tap. A weak cold front is pushing southwards through the province today, and while it’s possible some snow happens, if it were to it wouldn’t really amount to more than a few flakes and definitely wouldn’t accumulate to anything. Here in Winnipeg and areas south the best chance for that is overnight, but it’s so minimal that I don’t really feel it bears any more mention than.
After that, there’s no snow expected through the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures will generally sit around -18°C for highs and -25°C for lows with variations a couple degrees off those points. Winds are also expected to be light with nothing climbing over 20-25km/h through the next few days.
Cold Weather Here to Stay
While it’s not nearly as cold as it was through December or many parts of this month, our temperatures are still noticeably below the “seasonal”[1] -11°C for this time of year. Thanks to that persistent northerly flow thanks to a complex of lows anchored over Hudson Bay, it doesn’t look like much change is in sight.
The NAEFS is forecasting below-normal temperatures through the 8-14 day timeframe.
The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) continues to forecast below-normal temperatures in the 1-2 week timeframe; unfortunately for us, this outlook tends to be fairly accurate most of the time. At this rate, it means that we’ll see little hope for improvement at least until the middle of February.
So, do what Winnipegers are great at doing: make lemonade. Enjoy the fact there won’t be much wind, bundle up and get out there!
It should probably be noted that – especially in January – the “normal” temperatures tend to be averages between the extremes thanks to our continental climate. ↩
A clipper system tracking through Southern Manitoba today will bring near-normal temperatures and a very slight chance of a flurry through the early afternoon. Once the system passes through, we’re going to settle into a fairly stable pattern as a dome of cold air settles over Hudson Bay, keeping us in a benign but cool pattern for the remainder of the week.
Wednesday
-11°C / -25°C
Cloudy; a marginal chance of midday flurries. Clearing later in the day.
Thursday
-20°C / -25°C
Mainly sunny.
Friday
-18°C / -22°C
A few clouds.
Today will bring relatively mild weather as temperatures climb up to -11°C or so thanks to a weak clipper system tracking through Central Manitoba that is dragging some warmer air with it as it pushes through. We’ll see mainly cloudy conditions through the morning and early afternoon with clouds then clearing out late in the afternoon or early this evening. There’s a very slight chance of a flurry or two starting midday and through the early afternoon, but the risk is very slight at that. Any organized snowfall should remain to our north and to our east, but even there only around 2cm is expected. By mid-afternoon there will be essentially no threat of snow and the clearing will begin.
This 700mb temperature chart for Saturday evening shows the dome of cold Arctic air set to settle over Hudson Bay.
As the clipper system pushes off into Ontario, cooler air will begin filtering into Manitoba. We’ll see temperatures drop to around -25°C tonight with a modest recovery to around -20°C tomorrow under mainly sunny skies. The temperature will drop to around -25°C once again tomorrow night under clear skies. Friday looks to climb a little bit warmer to around -18°C with some afternoon clouds as a very weak disturbance whips across the province. Slightly warmer air aloft will bump up our overnight low a few degrees to around -22°C or so under clear skies once again.
More of the same (perhaps cooling off a little) is in store for the weekend. No significant snowfall events[1], in Winnipeg or the Red River Valley, are expected right through to the end of next week.
This week will see a return to frigid weather, the likes of which we haven’t seen consistently since early this month.
Monday will be very cold as an arctic air mass remains entrenched over southern Manitoba
Monday
Monday
-25°C / -33°C
Mainly Sunny
Monday will feature extreme cold weather. High temperatures in Southern Manitoba will be in the mid minus twenties, with wind chill values in the upper minus thirties or lower minus forties for much of the day. Temperatures will plunge on Monday night, as will wind chills – don’t forget to plug in your car!
Tuesday
Tuesday
-21°C / -25°C
Mainly Sunny
Wake-up temperatures on Tuesday will be brutal. Air temperatures will be in the low to mid minus thirties, with wind chills making it feel more like the mid minus forties. However, it appears that we will warm up a fair bit during the day on Tuesday. It won’t be warm by any means, but temperatures should climb close to -20C by late afternoon. A southerly flow will develop on Tuesday night, preventing another night of extreme cold.
Wednesday
Wednesday
-11°C / -25°C
Mainly Cloudy. Chance of Flurries.
Wednesday should be the warmest day of the week, as that southerly flow temporarily brings some relief to this cold snap. Daytime highs on Wednesday look to be in the low minus teens, which will make it feel like relatively warm day. Unfortunately, another cold front will blow through Southern Manitoba during the day on Wednesday, bringing a renewed push of arctic air. We may see a bit of snow on Wednesday due to a passing weather system, but amounts will be small.
Long Range
The NAEFS model suggests that we’re in for a prolonged cold snap.
The long range forecast looks really bad. For the first time since the beginning of this month there are strong indications of another prolonged cold snap. Long range models suggest this cold weather will last into the beginning of February for sure, but perhaps longer than that. We’ll just have to hope the models are wrong.
Take heart and treasure the mild weather we have this morning; the Arctic cold front is on it’s way and through a series of low pressure systems we’ll see a snowy couple days drag us back into the icy grip of winter.
Friday
3°C ⇘ -12°C / -25°C
Light snow beginning midday. 2-4cm. Clearing & windy in the afternoon.
Saturday
-17°C / -24°C
Increasing cloud in the afternoon; snow overnight.
Sunday
-19°C / -30°C
Risk of a blizzard. Snow ending midday. Windy.
Mild Weather Forced Out
Our daytime high will not happen this afternoon. In fact, it will be roughly around where we are at the time of this being posted; an expected high temperature of -3°C sits only a couple degrees above where we are at right now and then we’ll see temperatures start going the wrong way behind a cold front set to push through midday.
We may see a few flurries this morning but the more organized precipitation will hold off until midday when a cold front begins working it’s way southwards. Complicating things will be an upper level shortwave that is rippling down in a northwest flow will ride along the frontal boundary and provide additional lift, helping make snow a little more widespread than it would be otherwise. Due to that, most areas across Southern Manitoba will see some snow through midday as everything passes through. Significant amounts are not expected as mid-level moisture will be somewhat lacking and limit the amount of snow that can be produced. In general, around 2-3cm will be seen in many areas. There’s a slight chance we’ll see a little more in the southwest Red River Valley – near Morden, Winkler, Altona & Gretna – thanks to a closer proximity to the upper-level shortwave and a little more mid-level moisture. Even there, though, I don’t expect to see more than 4 or 5cm.
The snow will taper off this afternoon and stronger northerly winds will develop to around 30 gusting 50km/h. Some local blowing snow might develop through the afternoon, but it shouldn’t be a widespread issue. Temperatures will begin tanking as the northerly wind ushers in cooler Arctic air, but fortunately the big cool-off will hold off a couple more days. Temperatures should drop through the afternoon to somewhere between -10 to -15°C by evening and then onwards to an overnight low close to -26°C or so under clear skies and diminishing winds.
A Cool, Calm Day
GDPS 850mb temperature forecast for Saturday showing a strong baroclinic zone through the Prairies.
Saturday will bring fairly benign weather and act as our calm before the storm. A cold, sunny start to the day will go on to see a high around -17°C under increasing cloudiness as a compact but powerful system zips towards the province along a strong baroclinic zone. A few flurries are possible anywhere there’s cloud, but the organized snow will push into Western Manitoba midday and work it’s way towards the Red River Valley by evening. Around 5cm will fall over Western Manitoba while just 2-4cm are expected here in the valley with the potential for some higher amounts along the western escarpment thanks to an upslope flow that will develop overnight.
Winds will remain fairly light throughout the day and night. Flurries will persist until Sunday morning and we’ll drop to an overnight low of around -24°C.
Miserable Weather for Sunday
The NAM (among others) is forecasting a strong pressure gradient over Southern Manitoba on Sunday.
The big story behind the departing low pressure system on Sunday will be the absolutely massive Arctic ridge racing into the Prairies behind it. A very strong pressure gradient is set to develop over Southern Manitoba which will produce strong winds. At this point, it looks like winds will steadily increase early Sunday morning to 40 gusting 60km/h in most places. Through the southern Red River Valley winds will likely climb into the 50-60km/h range thanks to the funnelling effect of the terrain.
Anyone with highway travel plans for Sunday should keep updated on the weather conditions and be prepared for potentially hazardous weather conditions with near-zero visibility on highways.
These strong winds, combined with instability in the low-levels thanks to more cold air pushing southwards and the fresh snow of the past couple days will very likely produce widespread blowing snow. It does look like a blizzard may be possible, although things may end up being a little too marginal. For a blizzard on the Prairies, Environment Canada requires:
Winds of at least 40km/h or greater.
Visibilities of 1/4SM (400m) or less in blowing snow or blowing snow with falling snow.
Both (1) and (2) lasting for 4 hours or more.
The best chance for blizzard conditions will be south of Winnipeg in the Red River Valley and southwards into North Dakota. A strong pressure gradient coupled with ample fresh snow and the funnelling effect of the valley will likely make it quite easy to go down to near-zero visibility. For most other regions, a blowing snow warning seems very possible[1]. Either way, highway travel will likely be poor-to-closed on Sunday. We’ll keep an eye on this as it develops and provide updates a little later this weekend on how things look to be shaping up for Sunday.
Other than the winds, we’ll see skies clear out through the day and our temperature remain steady from Saturday’s low or dropping slightly. The winds will taper off in the late afternoon and we’ll head to a low near -30°C.
Blizzard Update
Right now it looks like this may be the most significant ground blizzard of the winter so far.
Everything seems to be fairly lined up for a significant blizzard event to develop overnight tonight. Winds will begin to pick up through SW Manitoba late overnight and slowly spread eastwards towards the Red River Valley by midday. At this point, it seems like widespread winds of 40-50km/h are possible, although it is possible the winds strengthen as high as 50-60km/h in some areas. Gusts to 70-80km/h are quite likely throughout much of Southern Manitoba.
Widespread blowing snow is expected on Sunday. Maximum blizzard potential exists through SW Manitoba, the western Red River Valley and southwards into North Dakota.
These strong winds will work in tandem with fairly deep low-level instability and a surprising amount of moisture to make very favourable conditions for blowing snow. The strong winds will persist for at least 6-9 hours in most places, making a long-term blowing snow or blizzard event quite likely. If you have any plans to travel on highways in Southwest Manitoba or the Red River Valley on Sunday, it is best to give yourself ample time & make alternate arrangements; white-out conditions are very likely and some highways may be closed. Right now it looks like this may be the most significant ground blizzard of the winter so far.
This blizzard event will extend all the way southwards into North Dakota where there is absolutely no question that a significant ground blizzard will be underway. Just to repeat, conditions will get worse as one travels south. Winds will begin to ease and let conditions improve from north to south through the evening hours.
All in all it will be a lousy day for highway travel. Don’t do it if you don’t have to and stay safe.
Like a blizzard warning, but only requires 1/2SM visibility (800m) and 3 hour duration. ↩
