Category: Forecasts

Week Heading to a Warm End, But Can it Last?

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The latest shot of Arctic air is set to be ushered out thanks to an extremely powerful storm north of 60 that will flood the Prairies with mild Pacific air and push our temperatures well above normal by week’s end. The big questions is: will it stick around?

Wednesday
⇓ -27°C / -32°C
Mainly sunny, windy and cold.

Thursday
-10°C / ⇑ -7°C
Increasing cloud with a chance of flurries overnight. Warming.

Friday
-2°C / -17°C
Cloudy and warm. Chance of flurries.

Bitter Cold in Mid-Week Slump

We’ll see bitterly cold temperatures before our big warm-up as yet another very strong Arctic ridge slumps through the province. We’ll see fairly strong winds at around 30km/h gusting to 50km/h out of the northwest this morning and little-to-no recovery from our overnight low today as temperatures struggle to climb before falling to about -27°C this afternoon thanks to the cold air mass that’s pushing in. Blowing snow may remain an issue through the morning hours until the wind begins to taper off. Some cloud cover will linger in the region, but overall it should be a mainly sunny day as it often is when we have these very cold air masses incoming.

Temperatures will drop off to around -32°C or so tonight under clear skies with fairly light winds. Wind chill values will dip to the -37 to -40 range, but it doesn’t look like the criteria for a wind chill warning[1] will be met so I don’t expect any warnings to be issued for Winnipeg.

This forecast tephigram from the NAM shows the sharp low-level inversion in place late Thursday that will likely help produce strong winds.
This forecast tephigram from the NAM shows the sharp low-level inversion in place late Thursday that will likely help produce strong winds.

Thursday will be our transition day, much like (but not quite as strong as) last Wednesday[2], with temperatures warming to around -10°C by day’s end. With such warm air relative to the very cold air that will be entrenched in the valley, a strong inversion will develop which will aid in producing fairly strong winds. They will strengthen as we begin to warm up in the late morning into the afternoon to around 40-50km/h out of the south/southwest. The wind will conspire to make it feel quite a bit cooler than our advertised high would imply, and we may also see localized blowing snow through the valley which could make travel on some roads a little more difficult. A widespread blowing snow event is not expected.

Clouds will roll in through the afternoon as we begin to fall into the influence of the massive storm rolling through the Arctic. There will be a chance of some flurries overnight as our temperature continues to rise to around -7°C although most of the snow activity should stay to our east.

Mild Friday To End Week

Friday will start off on a great foot with temperatures quickly climbing towards -2°C with mixed skies and southwesterly winds at around 30km/h. A weak cold front will push through the Red River Valley midday which will cool off our temperatures slightly, but the bigger impact will the the potential for some snow as the front passes through and then stronger northerly winds in behind it strengthening possibly up to 40km/h with gusts to 50-60km/h. This strong northerly wind will tap into cooler air to our north and dip our temperature from our daytime high of -2°C to around -8 or -9°C by the early evening.

Friday night will bring clear skies as we dip towards -17°C for our overnight low.

Uncertain Weekend Ahead

This 850mb temperature forecast from the GDPS clearly shows the strong baroclinic zone bisecting the Prairies (highlighted).
This 850mb temperature forecast from the GDPS clearly shows the strong baroclinic zone bisecting the Prairies (highlighted).

The weekend is a bit of a wildcard at this point…for the most part. The one thing that’s certain is that we’ll plunge back into the deep freeze by the end of it. After Friday’s cold front, there will be a lull in the progress of the Arctic air as the entire atmosphere pivots with the next shot of cold air pushing in from the high Arctic. As the atmosphere takes this pause, a strong baroclinic zone[3] will develop and align NW/SE through the Prairies. There will be light snow along most of the baroclinic zone as it ripples back and forth with weak impulses, but it’s futile to attempt to pin down exactly where it will lie; models tend to have a lot of difficulty in correctly placing these features.

It does seem like the feature will set up further to our west than the last one and we’ll likely remain east of any snowfall. A disturbance will ripple down the baroclinic zone on Sunday which may bring us some light snow and will usher in the bitterly cold air in behind it.

  1. a. Wind chill values of -40 or lower.
    b. Winds greater or equal to 15km/h.
    c. Conditions (a) and (b) both being concurrently met for 3 consecutive hours or longer.  ↩
  2. …where the temperature rose from -27.1°C in the morning to 3.3°C in the afternoon; a whopping 27.4°C (January 15, 2014).  ↩
  3. A region of strong temperature gradients.  ↩

The Chill Returns

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We’ll see a return to colder weather this week, though it won’t be quite as bad as what we saw earlier this month.

A large arctic high will bring colder weather to southern Manitoba early this week. The arrows indicate the clockwise circulation around the high.

A large arctic high will bring colder weather to southern Manitoba early this week. The arrows indicate the clockwise circulation around the high.

Monday

Monday

Clearing
-22°C / -30°C

Today will be our coldest day in awhile. High temperatures will remain stuck in the minus twenties, with a breezy north-west wind. As a result, wind chill values will remain in the -30s for most, if not the entire day. But on the bright side we’ll see sunny skies return, as the lingering cloud cover clears out during the day.

Tuesday

Tuesday

Mainly cloudy. Chance of flurries.
-16°C / -23°C

It looks like we’ll see a slight warm-up for Tuesday with temperatures climbing into the minus teens. The wind will also be light, making it a decent day overall. We may see a few flurries on Tuesday, but they won’t amount to anything of great significance.

Wednesday

Wednesday

Mainly Sunny
-21°C / -31°C

The weather will turn cold again on Wednesday as another arctic high drops south into the region. High temperatures on Wednesday will once again remain in the minus twenties. It also looks to be a somewhat windy day, generating chilly wind chill values in the -30s yet again.

Long Range

The long range forecast continues to look very up and down. Models suggest we’ll see more cold weather over the next 7-10 days, but also some warm days mixed in here and there. No major weather systems are in the forecast, but we’ll likely see little systems bring us small dumps of snow every once and awhile.

Unsettled Pattern Continues

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Residents in the Red River Valley have barely had time to get the shovels out after Wednesday’s snowfall and Thursday’s blowing snow/blizzard, but more snow and wind is on the way as another system tracks through today. The unsettled weather will continue through the weekend with a brief improvement on Saturday followed by more unsettled weather on Sunday.

Friday
-8°C / -10°C
Increasing cloud in the afternoon then snow. 4-8cm accumulation.

Saturday
-7°C / -9°C
A mix of sun and cloud. Blowing snow in the morning. Chance of flurries.

Sunday
-5°C / -20°C
Light snow developing through the day.

Another Shot of Snow Tonight

More snow is on the way later today through tonight as another low pressure system dives southeastwards through the province. Before that, though, we’ll see mainly sunny skies with relatively light winds out of the south at only around 20-30km/h by the afternoon. The temperature should climb up to around -8°C in Winnipeg while areas closer to the U.S. border may see the temperature get as high as -5°C or so.

Expected storm-total snowfall amounts by Saturday morning.
Expected storm-total snowfall amounts by Saturday morning.

Cloud and snow will stream in fairly quickly from the northwest later this afternoon as the low pressure system begins slumping southwards through the Interlake. The heaviest snowfall will fall before midnight with lighter flurries persisting thereafter into the early morning. The snow will taper off by tomorrow morning with totals generally between 4-8cm through Winnipeg & most of the Red River Valley.

Blizzard conditions may develop in the southwestern Red River Valley thanks to the funnelling effect of the western escarpment.

Winds won’t be as strong as Wednesday through the snowfall event – around 30km/h gusting to 50 or so in Winnipeg and the eastern Red River Valley and a little bit stronger in the western Red River Valley at around 40 gusting 60km/h. There will be some blowing snow through the overnight period, but I don’t think we’ll see anything as extensive as on Wednesday night into Thursday. The one caveat may be the southwestern Red River Valley[1] where blizzard conditions may develop thanks to a funnelling effect of the western escarpment. Winds may climb up to 50 gusting 70km/h which should be enough to produce a widespread white-out. The strong winds will move in overnight and taper off midday tomorrow.

Nice Start to Weekend, Snowy End

Skies will clear out early Saturday morning with any blowing snow hanging on a little longer until the winds die down. Otherwise we’ll see mixed skies with a high near -7°C with fairly light winds. There will be a slight chance of a flurry or two, but no accumulations are expected.

We’ll drop to an overnight low of just -9°C[2] as more cloud cover begins working it’s way in ahead of another disturbance on it’s way. There will be a continued chance for some isolated flurries overnight.

Sunday will be a mainly cloudy day with snow developing through the afternoon. We’ll climb up to a high of around -5°C. The snow will taper off through the evening on Sunday with some breezy northerly winds producing some blowing snow through the Red River Valley. At this point it doesn’t look too bad, fortunately. Skies will clear Sunday night and we’ll drop to an overnight low of around -20°C.

We’ll continue on an unsettled track through next week as very cold Arctic air begins pushing it’s way back into the region. It seems like we’ll be seeing overnight lows near -30 to -35°C in the latter half of the week, so enjoy the upcoming mild weather!

  1. Areas near Carman, Altona, Winkler, Morden, and Emerson are most likely.  ↩
  2. An overnight low that’s warmer than our normal daytime high for January 17th!  ↩

Mid-January Storm To Bring All Manner of Nasty Weather

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A powerful storm system is pushing into Southern Manitoba this morning and will become the first major storm of the year. This storm will impact the entirety of Manitoba and bring very strong winds, heavy snow, near-blizzard conditions and a good chance of some freezing rain. Read on to find out where will see what as we break this thing down.

  • Significant weather expected: strong winds (and blowing snow), freezing rain and heavy snowfall.

  • Expected storm-total snowfall amounts from this system.

Disclaimer: I could write many more words than I have time to write about this system. As such, I’m going to just explicitly state right now that while I may mention areas outside the Red River Valley, the focus of this post will be for the weather expected in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley.

We’ll start out with the good news: temperatures are expected to stay near or above normal[1] through the remainder of the week; no horribly cold Arctic air is expected to slam southwards into the Prairies with this system. That’s about where the good news ends, though.

As we progress through this morning, an area of snow will move into the Red River Valley, pushing in from the west ahead of the incoming warm front. The low pressure centre is currently in northeastern Saskatchewan and will begin to dive southeast into Central Manitoba later this morning. Winds will strengthen out of the south this morning up to around 40-50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h. Despite the relatively mild temperatures – we’re sitting at around -10°C – extensive blowing snow will likely be an issue in areas to the south of Winnipeg[2] thanks to the strength of the winds.

Wednesday

3°C / -11°C
Snow beginning this morning. Very windy. Risk of freezing rain this afternoon. Flurries overnight with blizzard conditions in the Red River Valley.

The heaviest snowfall will pass to the north and east of the city where a heavy snowfall warning is in effect for 10-15cm of snow. Here in the Red River Valley we’ll see a fair gradient in snowfall amounts from the southwest corner to the northeast corner thanks to how the precipitation spreads in from northwest to southeast. Through the day today, areas in the southwest corner can expect the lighter end of the snowfall with only around 2-5cm accumulation by the evening. Here in Winnipeg we’ll see from 5-10cm of snow while closer to 10cm of snow will fall to our north and east.

Our winds, as mentioned before, will become quite strong out of the south. They’ll lighten a little bit for the early afternoon as they swing to the west as the low pressure system moves through the Interlake and the warm front pushes east of the Red River Valley. Our temperature will jump up to around +2 or +3°C and we’ll see a break in any blowing snow that’s happening. By mid-to-late afternoon, though, a cold front will be approaching. Winds will shift a little more to the northwest and we’ll see a risk for some freezing rain just ahead of and along the cold front as it pushes through. In addition, there is the potential for some fairly heavy bursts of snow along the cold front with some models hinting that there may be a fair amount of convective activity associated with it[3]. Winds will shift straight out of the northwest by the evening and strengthen considerably to 50km/h with gusts potentially as high as 80km/h overnight here in Winnipeg.

This wind will readily whip up the freshly fallen snow in the RRV and produce near-zero or white-out conditions on area highways. Despite the fact that temperatures will not drop too quickly – only to around -10°C overnight – it will still be a brutal night. Continued flurry activity will likely continue through the night, compounding the visibility problems presented by the winds alone.

Thursday


⇒ -10°C / -20°C
Windy with blowing snow. Mainly cloudy.

The snow will taper off early on Thursday, but poor visibilities will continue through much of the day as the strong northwest winds persist at 40-50km/h at least into the early afternoon. Temperatures will remain fairly steady at around -10°C.

By evening the wind will taper off as a ridge of high pressure moves into the province, bringing an end to any blowing snow left in the Red River Valley. The clouds will also scatter out and we’ll drop to a chilly -21°C for our overnight low.

Friday & The Weekend


-10°C / -14°C
Cloudy periods with a chance of afternoon flurries.

Friday will start off sunny but some cloudy periods will develop as a warm front pushes into the Red River Valley. We’ll become overcast in the mid-to-late afternoon and see a chance for a few flurries as the warm front pushes eastwards. This front will usher in warmer air for the weekend with highs near the 0°C mark and overnight lows dropping just shy of around -10°C.

  1. Normal daytime highs are around -13°C for mid-January.  ↩
  2. As usual, with a southerly wind the highways that will be affected most are those that run west/east.  ↩
  3. As evidenced by lightning in Northern Alberta last night.  ↩