Mild With a Chance of Showers

Brad Leave a comment

The warm spring weather continue in Winnipeg this week, but a passing low pressure system on Wednesday will bring a chance of showers to the region.

ECMWF 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 18Z April 11, 2024
Rain showers are possible across southern Manitoba from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.

Temperatures will stay warm in Winnipeg through the rest of the week as more mild Pacific air spills across the southern Prairies. Daytime highs will hover in the low to mid-teens this week with lows in the 0 to +5 °C range.

While today will be mainly sunny, clouds will move in tonight as a low pressure system moves into southern Manitoba from central Saskatchewan. This system will support an area of showers that develops on Wednesday afternoon near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border that drifts southeast into the evening. The chance of showers will last through the night, then taper off on Thursday morning as the low moves into Ontario.

Behind the low on Thursday, cloud cover will slowly break up as moderate northwest winds develop. By the afternoon, Winnipeg should see clearing skies with northwesterlies into the 30 to 40 km/h range. A ridge of high pressure will move in on Thursday night, bringing clear skies and light winds.

On Friday, the ridge will depart to the east and another low pressure system will begin its trek across the Prairies. This will bring increasing southeast winds with sunny skies giving way to late day cloud. There will be a chance of showers on Friday night as a warm front moves across the province.

Long Range Outlook

Saturday will bring the warmest weather of the year thus far to the Winnipeg area. With the warm front through and no snow cover left, daytime highs should be able to climb into the upper teens or low 20s with west-southwest winds. There could be a chance of a shower on Saturday evening as a cold front swings through with the passage of a low pressure system.

Sunday will bring cooler, but still mild, weather to the region. Daytime highs should sit in the mid-teens with breezy northwest winds and mixed skies.

Heading into next week, many forecast models suggest that a potent Colorado Low will develop and move towards the province. It’s too early to say anything definitive at this point, but this system could bring a broad swath of notable rain and/or snow to much of the eastern Prairies as it moves through. This storm could bring dangerous winter storm conditions to parts of the eastern Prairies; at this point it looks like much of the worst of the storm will move through eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba, but we’ll be sure to keep an eye on it as it develops.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 8 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -4 °C.

Sunny and Warm This Weekend in Winnipeg

Brad Leave a comment

A stagnant pattern over the region will bring sunny skies and warm weather to Winnipeg for the rest of the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday April 5, 2024
Mild temperatures will continue to wash over the southern Prairies this weekend.

A slow-moving upper ridge over the the province and a stalled surface low in Montana will result in little change to the weather in Winnipeg this weekend.

In the days ahead, the region will see sunny skies with daytime highs warming from the low teens into the mid-teens. Overnight lows will hover near or just above freezing.

Winds will strengthen out of the southeast into the 20 to 30 km/h range today, stay steady tonight, then increase to 40 gusting 60 km/h on Saturday. The winds will ease on Saturday night back into the 20 to 30 km/h range and shift easterly for Sunday.

Long Range Outlook

Monday brings the partial solar eclipse to the region, and unfortunately the region may struggle with cloud cover through the day. A low pressure system crossing the American Plains will spread thick cloud cover all the way through North Dakota and it’s likely that it will spill into southern Manitoba. At this point, it’s unlikely that skies will be overcast, but the region will likely have at least a mix of sun and cloud.

Skies will clear out Tuesday, leaving partly cloudy skies for much of the rest of the week. Temperatures will continue to be mild with highs in the 10 to 15 °C range and lows hovering near the freezing mark.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 7 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -5 °C.

Spring Warmth Moving In

Brad Leave a comment

Temperatures will warm into the teens this week as Spring warmth continues to build across the Prairies.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday April 4, 2024
Mild temperatures will build eastwards across the Prairies this week.

A lingering low pressure system will gradually clear out of the region today, but it will leave lingering cloud cover across the region. A few light rain showers or flurries are possible today as temperatures head to a high in the low single digits with northerly winds near 30 km/h. With a ridge of high pressure moving in tonight, the winds will drop off with clearing skies and a low near -5 °C.

A stagnant pattern will develop for the rest of the week, rooted by a low complex anchored over the American Rockies. Manitoba will be on the eastern edge of this system with warm air slowly edging eastwards as the high in the area inches eastwards.

The result will be many sunny or partly cloudy days for the rest of the week with daytime highs near 10 °C on Wednesday increasing into the 10 to 15 °C range for the rest of the week. Overnight lows will dip to around the freezing mark right through the end of the week.

Long Range Outlook

There will be little change for the weekend and the start of next week. Mild weather will continue across southern Manitoba with highs in the mid-teens and overnight lows in the 0 to 5 °C range. The next organized chance of rain doesn’t look like it will come until at least mid-week next week.

It appears that the last of winter will be melted away this week and the dry, dusty spring weather can commence! Time to get the shorts out?

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is +6 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -6 °C.

More Snow in Southern Manitoba as Warm-Up Begins

Brad Leave a comment

Winnipeg will see another burst of snow later today as warmer air begins spreading into Manitoba.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 06Z Saturday March 30, 2024
A low pressure system with an inverted trough will cross southern Manitoba on Saturday night.

Forecasts have shifted over the past few days regarding the next low pressure system moving through the province today. What earlier in the week was forecast to weaken as it moves into Manitoba is now expected to maintain its integrity. As a result, not only will skies cloud over today, light snow will spread from western Manitoba into the Red River Valley later this afternoon. Winds will pick up out of the southeast to around 20 km/h as temperatures climb to a high near +1 °C.

The snow will continue overnight before tapering off on Saturday morning. While areas in western Manitoba will see close to 10 cm of snow, amounts in the Red River Valley will be less. Winnipeg will likely see 2 to 5 cm of snow by the time it tapers off, though there is an off-chance of seeing totals in the 5 to 10 cm range. Temperatures will head down to a low near -4 °C tonight.

Skies will stay mainly cloudy on Saturday as a trough of low pressure hanging back into the region continues to weaken. Light westerly winds will develop as temperatures bounce back above freezing into the low single digits for the daytime high. Skies will begin to clear out overnight with a low in the -10 to -5 °C range.

A ridge of high pressure will begin moving into the region on Sunday, bringing partly cloudy skies and light winds. Daytime highs will again climb above freezing into the low single digits. Temperatures will dip down into the -15 to -10 °C range on Sunday night with partly cloudy skies.

Long Range Outlook

The warm-up starts in earnest early next week as an upper ridge begins building into the Prairies. This will push milder Pacific air eastwards, sending daytime highs into the 5 to 10 °C range for much of next week.

It looks dry through much of the week, though a couple passing systems could bring a chance of rain showers or light snow.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is +4 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -7 °C.