A series of high pressure systems tracking through Manitoba will bring dry weather with seasonal temperatures to the region over the next couple days.
Benign high pressure over Manitoba will bring seasonal temperatures over the next couple days.
A weak upper-level ridge over the Prairies will keep persistent high pressure over Manitoba for a couple more days. Daytime highs today and tomorrow will sit in the mid-20s while overnight lows will likely dip into the low teens. Winds both days should sit out of the southeast in the 10 to 25 km/h range. Fortunately, these winds will help keep the air smoke-free. The days should bring plenty of sunshine with afternoon clouds possible.
On Sunday, a low pressure system will push into central Manitoba. Southwest winds will push temperatures into the upper 20s with dew points climbing into the mid-teens. It’s been dry much of this spring and while it won’t be “humid,” you’ll be much more likely to notice the humidity out there on Sunday afternoon. There will be a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms on Sunday evening. Temperatures will head down to a low in the 15 to 20 °C range on Sunday night with winds easing to light northerly.
Long Range Outlook
Monday will likely bring more unsettled weather as the influence of the departing low gradually wanes.
It looks warmer next week with daytime highs in the mid- to upper-20s through much of the week and overnight lows in the mid- to upper teens. With that, there will be more chances for showers or thunderstorms as a few systems move through in the course of the week.
The more active pattern could bode well for the fires over central Saskatchewan and Manitoba with accumulating rain possible across those areas.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.
An upper low over the northern Prairies will bring relief from the heat along with unsettled conditions, but smoke will continue to be an issue.
Scattered showers are possible across much of southern Manitoba while far northern Manitoba sees accumulating precipitation. Little rain is expected where it is needed most.
Over the past few days, the upper ridge over the Prairies has been replaced with an upper low anchored near the Hudson Bay coast. Its influence will linger over Manitoba for much of the week as it gradually trundles into Hudson Bay.
For Winnipeg, this means daytime highs will sit in the 20 to 25 °C range for much of the week with mixed skies developing most days. Overnight lows should sit within a few degrees either side of 10 °C.
There will be a few chances for showers or thunderstorms across the region over the coming days. The best chance for much of the region will be this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over central Manitoba midday then spread south through the afternoon. With up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE (instability) and 20 to 30 knots of bulk shear (organization), many of these showers will be capable of developing into thunderstorms. No organized severe weather threat is expected from the activity this afternoon.
The showers will taper off through the evening and skies will clear.
More showers or thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday, but they won’t likely be in Winnipeg. The best chance will be through the Interlake east towards the Ontario border with a slight chance of a few in southeast Manitoba.
On Thursday, a few showers or thunderstorms will be possible from central Saskatchewan southeast into Parkland Manitoba. Another area will develop in the afternoon through the northern United States; a few may track along the border regions but aren’t expected to push further north at this time.
All that said, it means that though there will be a chance of showers or thunderstorms almost every day ahead in southern Manitoba, today will be the only day they’re likely to happen in Winnipeg.
Air Quality an Ongoing Concern
Over the next few days, west to northwest winds will dominate; light winds at night will strengthen into the 20 to 30 km/h range during the day with gusts of 40 to 50 km/h. These winds will draw plumes of wildfire smoke into the region.
The simpler part of the smoke forecast is much of central Manitoba, the Parkland, Interlake, and areas east to the Ontario border will be smothered in smoke for much of the week. Expect very poor air quality through much of the week ahead.
For areas further south, plumes of smoke will either graze by or move through over the coming days. The first push of smoke will move into the region later today with a plume grazing Winnipeg and the northern Red River Valley on its way into the southeast corner of the province. The smoke will clear tonight, then another plume is forecast to slump into much of southern Manitoba on Wednesday morning, then gradually clear from west to east through the afternoon.
Smoke forecasts don’t extend past this point, but it looks like another plume of smoke may impact the Winnipeg area on Thursday. Keep in mind that smoke spread is difficult to forecast, and it’s likely that the details and timing may shift in the days ahead. Keep an eye out for air quality advisories from the MSC in the coming days.
Long Range Outlook
Warmer weather will push into the region to end the week, likely bringing daytime highs into the 25 to 30 °C range. Nocturnal showers or thunderstorms may be possible overnight Friday into Saturday, then widespread showers or thunderstorms will be possible later Saturday into Sunday as a cold front moves through the region.
It’s likely that smoke conditions will improve with the push of warmer air, but more smoke is likely behind the cold front on Sunday.
One of the main things to note is that for the foreseeable future, any northwest, north, or east-northeast wind may bring wildfire smoke into the region.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 9 °C.
Hot weather will continue in Winnipeg, but shifting winds will fumigate southern Manitoba with wildfire smoke this weekend.
By Thursday evening, much of the Prairies, as well as portions of the northern United Sates, was smothered in wildfire smoke.
An upper ridge parked over the Canadian Prairies will bring hot weather to southern Manitoba over the next few days. Daytime highs will reach around 30 °C over the next few days with overnight lows in the low to mid-teens. There will be little cloud through the weekend…but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be sunny.
Instead, the region will battle with smoke throughout the weekend. Today will again bring a dreary plume of high-level smoke to the region, a repeat of that not-quite-sunny day the region saw yesterday. A weak low pressure system will cross the province tonight, shifting light westerly winds into an organized northwesterly breeze.
These northwest winds will usher in thick smoke plumes from wildfires over the central Prairies. By Saturday morning, it’s likely that smoke levels will increase to hazardous values across much of southern Manitoba. While the intensity of these plumes are difficult to forecast in advance, all signs point to a deterioration of air quality to the point where everybody should aim to reduce or eliminate time outdoors.
Winds will shift back to the south or southwest on Sunday as a new low pressure system develops over Saskatchewan. There is no guarantee that this will bring clean air back to the region; there is a chance that the region ends up having a diluted version of the same smoke plume lift back north through the region. There will likely be an improvement in the air quality, but it may not end up being back below hazardous levels.
Long Range Outlook
The forecast gets difficult heading into next week. That new low pressure system in Saskatchewan may move through as early as Sunday night, which would likely bring more northwest winds and a fresh blast of smoke from the central Prairies. Winds are forecast to gradually shift westerly in the first part of the week, which should help to clear out the air. A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible Monday, along with cooler temperatures, then it looks like the rest of the week will return to near-seasonal conditions.
For the foreseeable future, any organized northwesterly winds in the forecast will have to be eyed with caution; they will regularly run the risk of bringing thick plumes of wildfire smoke into the region and produce dangerously poor air quality.
With the return to seasonal conditions next week, there will likely be a few chances for scattered showers or thunderstorms. Any moisture will be appreciated, but it doesn’t look like there will be any substantial amounts of rainfall to ease the parched conditions across the region.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.
There will be plenty of sunshine in Winnipeg this week as temperatures climb into the low 30s by week’s end. Unfortunately, this will worsen fire conditions across the region.
Huge plumes of wildfire smoke were visible Monday evening, smothering much of the northern Prairies and parts of southern Manitoba.
A rebounding upper ridge will bring sunny skies and warmer weather to the eastern Prairies through the rest of the week. Unfortunately, this means that there won’t be any notable chance for any significant amounts of rain. This will mean, broadly, that fire conditions will likely worsen through the week as relative humidities remain low.
Daytime highs will climb from the upper 20s into the low 30s through the rest of the week with afternoon relative humidies dropping into the 20–30% range. With a much warmer air mass moving into the region, that chill that we’ve seen a lot of nights will dissipate. Overnight lows will warm into the mid- to upper teens through the week.
Winds be light the next several days, gradually shifting from the south-southwest to westerly over the next few days. This should, fortunately, keep much of the smoke out of the Red River Valley and Winnipeg areas in the days ahead.
A few scattered showers or thundershowers may be possible in the days ahead, but they’ll likely develop south of Winnipeg if they occur and will be limited in intensity and scope.
Long Range Outlook
The hot weather will continue into the weekend with no rain in sight. Winds may shift northwesterly on Saturday, which could bring smoke from the wildfires over the central Prairies into the region.
Some relief from the dry conditions looks to be possible next week. The upper ridge begins to break down and several disturbances are forecast to track through the region through the week. Each one looks to bring a chance of widespread showers and/or thunderstorms to the region, which could supply several rounds of much-needed moisture.
Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.
