Warmer Weather Returns to Winnipeg; Showers Possible

Winnipeg will see temperatures return to seasonal values with a chance of showers mid-week.

The Arctic ridge that has been keeping Winnipeg cool will finally begin shifting eastwards to start the week. As a result, the city will finally see a return to near-seasonal temperatures! Today will bring sunny skies to the region with temperatures climbing to a high near 19°C. Warmer temperatures working into the region will also keep overnight lows markedly milder. Winnipeg will drop to around 7°C tonight.

The exit of the Arctic ridge will also have the effect of allow an active storm track over the United States to slowly shift northwards. For Tuesday, this means that easterly winds will pick up to around 30 gusting 50 km/h with a few afternoon clouds. Fortunately, temperatures will return to fully seasonal values with a high near 23°C. Skies will cloud over Tuesday evening with continuing easterly winds near 20 km/h. The cloud and the wind will help keep temperatures mild in Winnipeg with a low near 8 or 9°C.

An area of rain is forecast to push northwards out of the United States early Wednesdya morning.
An area of rain is forecast to push northwards out of the United States early Wednesdya morning.

For Wednesday, a low pressure system lifting northwards through the Dakotas will spread some precipitation northwards into southern Manitoba early in the day. Winnipeg will see a chance of showers through the day, but they will be most likely in the morning. It will be a much cooler day with a high near 12°C and east-northeast winds near 30 km/h. Skies will stay cloudy on Wednesday night with a low near 7°C.

Long Range Outlook

The rest of the week looks like it will bring a fair amount of cloud cover with another chance for rain developing on Thursday night through Friday. Highs in the mid- to upper-teens will persist through the weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 21°C while the seasonal overnight low is 6°C.

Cool Temperatures With Variable Cloudiness Ahead

An Arctic ridge will keep temperatures seasonably cool through the weekend as cloud pushes northwards out of the United States.

Unfortunately, Winnipeg has fallen into another stretch of below-seasonal temperatures. A ridge of high pressure extending from the Arctic southwards through the province will keep daytime highs in the mid teens through the weekend. The ridge will keep it dry over the province, but cloud will push northwards out of the United States. As a result, a mainly sunny start Friday will give way to cloudier conditions by the end of the afternoon.

Winds will start off light today, but will strengthen out of the north to around 30 km/h. The wind will ease to around 20 km/h tonight, then strengthen back to 30 to 40 km/h on Saturday. Saturday night will bring a repeat with winds easing to 20 km/h followed by a restrengthening to 30 km/h on Sunday.

Winds will pick up on Saturday as the pressure gradient strengthens between a ridge of high pressure extending from the Arctic and a low pressure system crossing the Dakotas.
Winds will pick up on Saturday as the pressure gradient strengthens between a ridge of high pressure extending from the Arctic and a low pressure system crossing the Dakotas.

Through all this wind, mixed to mostly cloudy skies will persist through the weekend. Daytime highs will hover in the low to mid-teens with overnight lows consistent in the low single digits. Unfortunately, the persistent wind through the weekend will make it feel rather chilly.

All in all the weather will be fairly quiet this weekend, even if it’s a bit cooler and cloudier than many would like for this time of year.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will start with a slow return towards seasonal temperatures. By mid-week, forecast models show a disturbance grazing the province which may bring some light rain to the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20°C while the seasonal overnight low is 6°C.

Wednesday Brings Showers and Thunderstorms to the Red River Valley

Southern Manitoba will see showers and thunderstorms today as a low pressure system moves into the province.

Winnipeg will see increasing cloud today as a low pressure system pushes a warm front into the province. The initial batch of showers with isolated thunderstorms will spread eastwards along a warm front into the Interlake this morning. This area of rain will likely will stay north of the Trans-Canada Highway, but there will be a small chance of scattered (thunder)showers further south through the day. With all the cloud cover over the region, highs will be seasonal despite the push of warmer air. Winnipeg should see a high near 18°C with breezy southerlies near 30 gusting 50 km/h.

The thunderstorm threat will increase this evening as a cold front begins working its way across southern Manitoba. This may end up being one of the first organized severe weather threats of the season for southern Manitoba. Going over the MIST ingredients:

  • Moisture: A southerly fetch ahead of the warm-sector trough will draw moisture northwards. Dew points will rise into the low teens along a narrow strip ahead of the trough.
  • Instability: Marginal mid-level lapes rates will limit instability despite the surge of low-level moisture. MLCAPE values will likely climb into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range by the end of the day.
  • Shear: A 60 kt jet overriding the frontal boundary will produce 50 to 65 kt of 0-6km bulk shear. While high, it’s not unreasonable for thunderstorm development.
  • Trigger: Convection will focus along a cold front as it destabilizes the low-level inversion inhibiting surface-based convection.
Most forecast models show a line of thunderstorms moving through the Red River Valley this evening as the cold front pushes through.

All in all, it looks like there’s a good chance of marginally severe thunderstorms developing on Wednesday evening. Strong shear will support the development of multicellular thunderstorms that may grow upscale along the front into a line of showers and thunderstorms as the evening progresses. These thunderstorms will initiate near the Saskatchewan border and then progress east-southeast across the Red River Valley through the evening. Some of these thunderstorms may become severe with primary threats being large hail and/or damaging wind gusts. The convection will clear out in the evening with breezy northwest winds of 30 gusting 50 km/h picking up behind the cold front. Temperatures will dip to a low near 7°C.

Thursday and Friday will bring variable cloudiness as a developing storm system slowly intensifies. A ridge of high pressure extending from Nunavut southwards through the province will keep things seasonably cool and dry. Tonight’s northwesterly winds will slowly taper off through the day on Thursday, with light winds expected on Friday.

Long Range Outlook

More cloud is on the way for the weekend with temperatures remaining in the mid-teens. Forecast models diverge on Sunday with American models suggesting a broad area of rain lifting northwards into southern Manitoba while the Canadian models keep things further south. With the strength of the ridging over Manitoba, I’m inclined to side with the Canadian models at this point, but we’ll certainly be keeping an eye on things to see how they develop.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 20°C while the seasonal overnight low is 5°C.

Warm And Unsettled Conditions Ahead

Several disturbances tracking across the southern Prairies will bring warm temperatures, variable cloudiness, and several chances for showers or thunderstorms.

Winnipeg will start the day with cloudy skies, but skies will clear a bit later this morning. After that, a truly summer-like day lies ahead as temperatures climb to a high near 24°C with light southerly winds. The city will see a chance of showers or thunderstorms late in the day as a cold front moves through. Skies will clear for the first half of the night as temperatures head to a low near 10°C. A low in Saskatchewan will spread cloud back into the region through the second half of the night, though.

Tuesday morning will kick off with a good chance of showers with a small chance of thunderstorms as a disturbance rolls through. After it moves through, skies should clear out fairly quickly leaving much of the day with sunny skies. Daytime highs will be cooler than today, but still pleasant at a seasonal 19°C with light winds. Temperatures will dip to a low near 6°C on Tuesday night under clear skies.

Showers with the risk of thunderstorms will move though the Red River Valley early Tuesday morning.

On Wednesday, Winnipeg will see increasing cloudiness as a low pressure system approaches from Saskatchewan. Southerly winds will strengthen to around 30 gusting 50 km/h, drawing mild air northwards. How warm it gets in the city will largely depend on how long the sun manages to shine. Around 21°C looks most likely, but if skies cloud up earlier in the day, temperatures may end up a bit cooler than that. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop on Wednesday evening as the low pressure system moves through. That activity will move out overnight with temperatures dropping to a low near 9°C with light winds.

Long Range Outlook

Looking ahead, it appears that southern Manitoba will be entering a rather unsettled period as a large-scale upper pattern shift occurs. The city will see numerous chances for showers or thunderstorms through the latter half of the week and the weekend. By next week, depending on how things develop, Winnipeg may see itself launch into summer with humid conditions pushing northwards into the region. While there’s some uncertainty depending on how things evolve through the weekend, it does appear that things are finally shifting gears and heading towards summer!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19°C while the seasonal overnight low is 5°C.