First Blast of Bitter Winter Cold Incoming

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Winnipeg will see its first shot of bitterly cold Arctic air as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region this week.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Thursday December 12, 2024
An Arctic high will bring bitterly cold temperatures with lows in some places falling below -30 °C this week.

With the system that brought 15 to 20 cm of new snow to Winnipeg on its way out, the next system to shape the weather in the region will be an Arctic High building into the province from the north.

Before it gets here, though, a weak disturbance will move through the region today. It will bring a little bit of light snow, perhaps another 2–4 centimetres, today and then sweep a strong cold front southwards.

Temperatures will plummet behind the front as northerly winds of 30–40 km/h drive Arctic air southwards. A seasonable high near -10 °C today will quickly be forgotten as skies clear tonight and temperatures head to a low in the mid-minus 20s.

The Arctic High will be in full force through the rest of the work week. With plenty of sunshine, daytime highs will struggle to climb into the -25 to -20 °C range with overnight lows dipping back into the -25 to -35 °C range. Wind chill values will likely get close to -40 at times on Wednesday night and Thursday night.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will begin to moderate on Friday as the high begins to weaken and the core of coldest air moves out of the region. Daytime highs should climb back above -20 °C but breezy southerly winds will have a bite to them and produce wind chills that make it feel much worse.

Temperatures will climb back to seasonal values for Saturday and continue warming on Sunday. The region will likely see mixed skies through the weekend.

A bit of snow is possible later Sunday into Monday ahead of colder temperatures slumping back into the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -9 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -18 °C.

Mild Tuesday Snow Gives Way to Cold, Wind, and Blowing Snow

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A low pressure system moving through southern Manitoba will bring snow and mild temperatures to the Red River Valley. In its wake, colder temperatures and strong winds will surge into the region.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 15Z Wednesday December 4, 2024
Strong winds will develop across the Red River Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday, likely producing widespread blowing snow across the region.

Apologies for the late forecast, life has been busy!

Snow spread across much of southern Manitoba this morning as a low pressure system pushed a warm front into the region. A burst of moderate to heavy snow has moved through the region this morning, and now milder temperatures will spread across the region with daytime highs of -5 to 0 °C across southern Manitoba. As the warm air moves in, stiff southerly winds will shift to lighter westerlies.

A cold front will sweep through later today, ushering in some light snow and a major shift in the weather. Temperatures will plummet into the minus teens tonight as northwesterly winds strengthen into the 40 to 50 km/h range with gusts of 60 to 80 km/h. It’s likely that lake-effect snow will develop off the lee of Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg, producing a band of flurries that could last well into Wednesday.

The colder temperatures, new snow, and strong winds will likely produce widespread blowing snow across the region, though limited snowpack inside of Winnipeg could reduce the overall amount of blowing snow within city limits. Of particular concern will be the Trans-Canada Highway corridor between Winnipeg and Portage la Prairie where strong winds, existing snow, and lake-effect snow could combine to produce white out conditions and potential highway closures heading through Wednesday.

With those strong northwest winds, temperatures will only recover a couple degrees on Wednesday before dropping down to a low in the -20 to -25 °C range on Wednesday night. Wind chilled values will likely hover in the -25 to -30 range all day then closer to -30 overnight as the wind dies off.

A ridge of high pressure over the province on Thursday should bring partly cloudy skies to the region, light winds, and highs in the mid-minus teens.

Long Range Outlook

Another notable pattern shift will occur late this week as a strong low pressure system is forecast to track across the southern Arctic. This system will send warmer air sweeping across the Prairies, sending daytime highs back towards the 0 °C mark on the Weekend. More snow looks possible eon Sunday as a cold front pushes through the region, then it looks like a return to near-seasonal conditions for much of next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -7 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -16 °C.

Sunshine Reappears in Winnipeg…Briefly

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The sun will finally make a reappearance in Winnipeg today as colder weather moves into the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Saturday November 30, 2024
Winnipeg will see chilly overnight lows near -20 °C in the days ahead, but it will be much colder to the west.

Morning cloud cover will give way to sunshine today as the never-ending blanket of stratus cloud finally moves out of the region. The minor cost to finally kicking some of the gloom that’s set in is that temperatures will drop across the region. In Winnipeg, temperatures will hover just below -10 °C today with norhtwest winds steady around 30 km/h.

The winds will ease to around 20 km/h tonight with temperatures dropping close to -20 °C. A bit of lake-effect cloud and snow is possible off of the Manitoba Lakes, so Winnipeg could find itself with mixed skies through the night and perhaps some scattered flurries. Between the wind and the vicinity cloud, it’s unlikely that temperatures will drop much below -20 °C, if at all.

Much colder temperatures will sit just to the west of the Red River Valley; overnight lows in the -25 to -35 °C range will straddle the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border over the next couple nights.

The next couple days in Winnipeg will likely look much the same; cloud drifting into the region from the northwest as it pours off Lake Manitoba in the freeze-up process, possibly with some light snow. Highs will range from just below -10 °C under clearer skies to just over -10 °C under cloudier skies. Overnight lows could be in the -10 to -15 °C range if the band of lake cloud parks itself over the city at night, while it could drop closer to -20 °C if it clears.

Conditions may trend sunnier on Sunday as winds shift more northerly which would shift lake-effect cloud bands out of the Winnipeg area.

Long Range Outlook

Looking ahead, a low pressure system is likely to move through the region Monday night through Tuesday. Dropping down from the northwest, it looks to bring 5 to 10 cm of snow to central Manitoba with amounts diminishing southwards. It will come with a push of colder air, so there is still uncertainty with its track. This system will likely produce a swath of 5 to 15 cm of snow, but whether that occurs through central Manitoba or along a strip from the Parkland through the Red River Valley is unclear at the moment.

Behind this system, a push of colder air will move into southern Manitoba and send temperatures colder through the second half of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -6 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -15 °C.

Cooler, Cloudy Weather Ahead for Winnipeg

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The Winnipeg area will stay smothered in cloud cover this week as temperatures gradually cool.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Thursday November 28, 2024
While temperatures will drop in southern Manitoba this week, the region will avoid the bitter cold that will move through the western Prairies.

The Winnipeg area will be stuck under a blanket of cloud cover this week thanks to a stagnant flow over the region. Winds will stay light over the next few days as a weak ridge of high pressure stalls over southern Manitoba.

While an occasional sunny break may be possible, it looks like skies will stay mostly cloudy to overcast for the next several days.

Daytime highs will hover around -6 °C over the next couple days with overnight lows close to -10 °C. With temperatures in this range, flurries will be possible over the next couple days as well.

A cold front will slide through the area on Thursday, bringing breezy northwest winds and cooler temperatures. Winds should climb up to 30 gusting 50 km/h on Thursday as colder air pushes in. Temperatures will struggle to break -10 °C and then head down into the mid-minus teens on Thursday night. The cooler temperatures will make flurries less likely, but with the push of colder air there will be a chance that some lake-effect snow streams off Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into the end of the week, skies will likely stay mixed to mostly cloudy right through the weekend. Some sunshine is possible, but will more likely be through breaks in the cloud and any widespread clearing.

Temperatures will hold relatively steady with highs in the -15 to -10 °C range and overnight lows in the -20 to -15 °C range. Now that the city has snow on the ground, it will be much easier for temperatures to drop overnight, especially under any clearing that could develop.

Winds will gradually ease and there could still be some more flurries, but with the likelihood dropping along with the temperature.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -5 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -13 °C.

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