A Weather Moment

A complicated, slow-moving upper low over the Prairies will bring cloudy conditions with a chance for showers to the Red River Valley this weekend.

Winnipeg will see mostly cloudy skies today as cloud cover moves in ahead of the upper low building into Saskatchewan. As a result, the daytime high will be a bit lower than yesterday at a seasonal 24°C. The wind will be more pronounced than yesterday too, picking up out of the southeast to 30 gusting 50 km/h. The city should stay dry through the day, but the chance for showers increases heading into the evening. Showers are likely overnight as temperatures dip to a low near 15°C.

On Saturday, Winnipeg will see more showers in the morning as an upper-level feature called a trowal¹ moves through. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to how much rain will fall, but the general agreement is that much of the Red River Valley will likely see 5 to 15 mm Friday night through midday Saturday. The showers should scatter out through the afternoon hours. With all the cloud and precipitation, temperatures will be cooler with a high near 22°C in Winnipeg. Winds will continue through the day out of the south at 20 to 30 km/h.

By Saturday evening, the cloud cover should begin to break up as any remaining showers exit the region. Winds will keep out of the south near 20 km/h through the night with temperatures dipping to a low near 14°C.

Sunday will bring mixed skies to the city as the region moves into the dry slot of this system. With the return of some sunshine, temperatures will climb back to seasonal values with a high near 24°C. Winds will also gradually shift to the west through the day and then ease from 20 km/h to light through the evening. The city should see a low near 15°C on Sunday night.

Long Range Outlook

Much warmer temperatures will build into the region next week as a strong upper-level ridge develops over the eastern Prairies. Next week looks to be the first extended stretch of heat this summer. Daytime highs will be in the upper 20s, potentially reaching 30°C by the end of the week, while overnight lows stay in the mid- to upper-teens. Humidity levels are forecast to be comfortable through much of the week, but may begin to climb into muggier values next weekend.

Forecasts show mainly dry conditions through the week, but with the heat moving in there may be several chances for thunderstorm development.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.

1. A trowal is a trough of warm air aloft, more specifically defined as the cyclonic branch of the warm conveyor belt of a mature, occluding low pressure system. ↩

Winnipeg will see relatively pleasant conditions through the rest of the work week, but the chance for rain will return for the weekend.

Winnipeg will see mainly sunny skies today with just a few afternoon clouds thanks to a ridge of high pressure in the area. The city will see a seasonably warm high near 26°C with light southeasterly winds in the afternoon. Skies will stay mainly clear tonight with temperatures dipping to a low near 12°C.

On Thursday, a weakening low pressure system will spread showers into southwestern Manitoba, but the system will fall apart before the rain is able to make it this far east. That said, the city will see increasing cloudiness in the afternoon as the remnants of this system move into the region. Temperatures will reach a high once again near 26°C with southeasterly winds near 20 km/h. Skies will stay mostly cloudy on Thursday night with just a slight chance of showers. The city will see a low near 14°C.

Mostly cloudy skies will continue over Winnipeg through Friday with a chance of showers or thunderstorms developing in the evening. The cloudy skies will keep things a bit cooler; the high temperature for the city looks to be around 21°C. Winds will be a bit more pronounced on Friday as they pick up out of the southeast at 20 to 30 km/h. There will be a continued chance of showers through Friday night as the temperature dips to a low near 15°C.

Long Range Outlook

For the weekend, conditions will turn unsettled as an upper low over Alberta and Saskatchewan starts digging southwards into the United States. As pushes southwards, the upper-level flow over southern Manitoba will strengthen out of the southwest and upper-level disturbances will begin moving through the region. This will result in unsettled conditions with showers and/or thunderstorms possible both Saturday and Sunday. It’s possible that rainfall could be heavy in some of these showers and some forecast models show the potential of 25 to 50 mm of rain through portions of the Red River Valley this weekend.

That said, it’s not going to rain right through the weekend; the showers will develop in waves as each upper-level disturbance moves through. Daytime highs should continue in the low 20s through the weekend.

Next week, skies look to clear out with seasonably warm temperatures right through the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 24°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.