Arctic Grip Gives Way to Mid-Week Warmup

Monday will kick off Winnipeg’s week with some bitter cold, but a major warm-up is on the way mid-week, sending temperatures well above seasonal values.

Winnipeg’s Monday morning is starting off with bitter cold entrenched in the Red River Valley as temperatures near -27°C combine with winds near 30 km/h to produce wind chills near -40. That biting cold will stick around much of the day with temperatures only expected to reach a high near -22°C and that northerly wind at 30-40 km/h persisting until midday before tapering off this afternoon. Skies will gradually clear through the day as an Arctic ridge builds in from the northwest. Tonight will be another cold one as temperatures dip down to around -29°C, but winds will be much lighter, making everything a little more palatable.

RDPS 250mb Wind Forecast valid 00Z Tuesday January 16, 2018
A large upper ridge will begin moving eastwards over the Prairies tonight, spreading significantly warmer air into Manitoba

Everything begins changing on Tuesday, though, as a warm front pushes southeastwards across the province behind the departing Arctic high. A major swell of milder Pacific air will be sweeping eastwards across the Prairies as and upper-level ridge builds across the region. The incoming milder air will bring with it a fair amount of cloud, but temperatures will climb to a high near -16°C with winds out of the south at around 30 km/h. Temperatures will remain relatively mild overnight as more warm air pushes eastwards, bottoming out around -18 or -19°C.

GDPS 850mb Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday January 17, 2018
A significantly warmer-than-seasonal air mass will move into Manitoba on Wednesday, shown clearly here by the departure from seasonal 850mb temperatures

The warmth arrives in full on Wednesday as skies clear out, winds taper off, and temperatures climb to a high near -6°C. Wednesday night’s low near -10°C will even be warmer than the seasonal daytime high of -13°C!

Long Range Outlook

The mild weather will continue for the remainder of the week with highs in the -8 to -4°C range and lows near -10°C.

Temperatures are expected to return towards seasonal values for the weekend with cloudier skies and a chance for some light snow.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -24°C.

Cold Conditions Continue through the Weekend

A slight warm-up on Sunday won’t make much of a difference: cold weather continues into the first half of next week.

Winnipeg will be locked under the influence of a sprawling Arctic high that will keep daytime highs around -20°C both today and tomorrow under sunny skies. Temperatures will once again dip back down towards -30°C tonight, but some cloud pushing into the area late Saturday ahead of some warmer air pushing in will temper the cold a bit and keep overnight lows to around -25°C. Winds will be light at 10 to 20 km/h today, tonight and tomorrow. Winds will pick up out of the south on Saturday night to around 20 to 30 km/h as skies cloud over.

A few flurries will move thorugh portions of southern Manitoba on Sunday morning.

A passing low pressure system will bring some light flurries to the Red River Valley on Sunday morning as slightly warmer air pushes into the region. Temperatures should climb to a relatively balmy – but still below seasonal – minus 16°C or so with winds shifting to the northwest midday and picking up to around 30 km/h. Skies will clear out overnight as temperatures head to a low near -28°C.

Long Range Outlook

Early next week will see bitter cold return to the region as another Arctic high arrives. Highs will fall into the mid-minus twenties on Monday with overnight lows again near -30°C. A big change is on the horizon, though, as the large-scale weather pattern begins a pretty significant shift and an upper-level ridge starts building into the Prairies. By mid-week, daytime highs are expected to climb towards -5°C, with the potential of near-0°C highs by the end of the week!

This shift to milder weather will come with variable cloudiness with little chance of snow.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -24°C.

Windy Return to Colder Weather

The pleasant temperature Winnipeg has seen the past few days are coming to an end: a potent cold front will blast through today, bringing strong northerly winds usher Arctic air back into the region.

While today will start off with mild temperatures near the freezing mark, a cold front will push through early this morning, ushering in northerly winds of 50 gusting to 70 km/h that will send temperatures plummeting into the low minus teens through the afternoon. There will be a fairly good chance of flurries today, but no notable accumulations are expected.

Temperatures continue to fall tonight, heading towards a low of -23°C under cloudy skies. A disturbance moving through the Dakotas will spread snow into southeastern Manitoba, possibly clipping portions of the Red River Valley. In Winnipeg, it looks like up to around 2 cm of snow may fall, but further south in the Red River Valley up to 4 to 8 cm of snow may fall overnight. Moderate northerly winds will continue through the night.

NAM Forecast 2m Temperature valid 12Z Wednesday January 10, 2018
A cold front will sweep southwards through Winnipeg early this morning.

Thursday will bring clearing skies to Winnipeg & area as the winds slowly taper off. Temperatures will be cold with daytime highs near -21°C. Thursday night will bring mainly clear skies with light winds as temperatures fall to a low near -30°C. The cold weather continues on Friday with a daytime high near -20°C under sunny skies. Expect a low near -31°C on Friday night with the potential for extreme cold warnings.

Long Range Outlook

Conditions look cold and dry through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Winnipeg will see variable cloudiness through the weekend as a weak disturbance passes to the south, but no accumulating snowfall is expected.

Long-range guidance suggests that temperatures will begin to climb back to seasonal to above-seasonal values in the second half of next week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -24°C.

Mild Conditions Continue Until Mid-Week

Winnipeg will continue to see mild conditions for a couple more days, then a low pressure system moving through will usher in another surge of Arctic air.

Winnipeg will see sunny skies and seasonably mild conditions as a weak ridge moves across the province. Highs near -7°C combined with light winds will make for a beautiful January day that’s hard to complain about. Temperatures will dip to a low near -12°C tonight with a light southerly wind developing. Some cloud will begin to push into the region late overnight into early Tuesday morning.

Another surge of slightly milder air will move back into the region on Tuesday ahead of a developing low pressure system in Alberta. Temperatures will climb to around -4°C under mainly cloudy skies with winds out of the southeast at 20 to 30 km/h. An area of snow will spread eastwards across the central Prairies through the day, but at this point it looks like the snow will mostly remain north of a warm front which will be draped through western Manitoba and across the Interlake region. Temperatures will remain mild on Tuesday night near -4°C under cloudy skies with a chance of flurries and light winds.

RDPS Forecast 2m Temperature, Wind, and MSLP valid 00Z Wednesday January 10, 2018
An approaching low pressure system will keep temperatures mild on Tuesday night in Winnipeg, but much colder temperatures arrive on Wednesday

An Arctic cold front will sweep through early Wednesday morning, ushering in northwesterly winds of 30 to 40 km/h and sending temperatures in Winnipeg plummeting to around -19°C by evening. Skies will remain cloudy with a chance of flurries throughout much of the day. Skies will remain cloudy much of Wednesday night as temperatures drop to a low near -24°C by early Thursday morning.

Long Range Outlook

Below-seasonal temperatures will remain in place for the remainder of the week with daytime highs in the -22 to -18°C range and overnight lows in the mid-minus 20s right through the weekend. Conditions also look fairly dry, although a light skiff of snow may be possible on Friday as a low pressure system passes by through North Dakota.

There are hints of a more prolonged mild period developing next week, but models are still waffling on just how far north the warm air will make it and whether it will be continental feature, or primarily restricted to the United States. We’ll just have to wait and see on that one.

For now, get out there and enjoy the nice weather before that cold front arrives on Wednesday!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -24°C.