Tag: Above-Normal Temperatures

Warmer-than-Normal Temperatures Continue, But With Windy Conditions

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Temperatures in Winnipeg will climb into the upper teens over the next couple days before dropping back towards seasonal values on Sunday. The wind will put a bit of a hamper on enjoyment, though, as both today and Sunday will feature fairly prominent winds.

A surge of warmth is on the way to Winnipeg. The warm air will be drawn northwards by a developing low pressure system over Saskatchewan that will track eastwards through the Interlake on Saturday.

But first, today will be mild with a high temperature near 16°C coming in well above the seasonal average of 7°C. Skies will be a bit mixed as a combination of mid- and upper-level cloud moves through the Red River Valley. That said, the most prominent feature will be the southerly winds that pick up later this morning and strengthen to 40-50 km/h for the afternoon. The winds will then taper off fairly quickly in the evening as temperatures head to a low near 7°C under partly cloudy skies.

Saturday will be a nicer, albeit slightly cloudier day, than Friday. Temperatures will climb to a high near 17°C with much lighter southerly winds shifting to westerly in the afternoon. It looks like it will be a fairly cloudy day, but not completely without some sunshine. If there manages to be a little more sunshine than expected, it’s possible that the daytime high could reach up to 18 or 19°C. Rain-wise, there only appears to be a very slight chance of some showers in the afternoon, but it seems pretty insubstantial at this point.

While a slight chance of showers exists over the Red River Valley on Saturday, by a vast majority of the precipitation associated with the system will fall across northern Manitoba.
While a slight chance of showers exists over the Red River Valley on Saturday, by a vast majority of the precipitation associated with the system will fall across northern Manitoba.

Once the sun goes down, Winnipeg will be headed towards an overnight low near 3°C as the winds shift to northerly under partly cloudy to mixed skies.

Sunday will bring increasing cloudiness to Winnipeg as gusty northerly winds increase to around 30 km/h. Temperatures will be much cooler with a seasonal high near 8°C. Temperatures will dip down to around -3°C on Sunday night with mixed skies.

Long Range

As mentioned in the beginning, it had appeared that there would be a chance for a series of low pressure systems to impact the region beginning Sunday night and bring a mix of rain and snow to the region. Fortunately for us, that no longer appears to be the case as widespread support has emerged that places this system well to our south in South Dakota, the southern portions of North Dakota, and into Minnesota. This leaves us with just breezy northerly winds and cooling temperatures.

Much of next week looks to bring seasonal to slightly above-seasonal temperatures to the region, with dry conditions through the first half of the week and more organized chances for rainfall into the latter half of the week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 7°C while the seasonal overnight low is -4°C.

Warmth Rebounds Into Southern Manitoba

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While the past few days have been pleasant with above-normal temperatures, more significant warmth will be moving back into Southern Manitoba over the coming days as an upper-level ridge builds into the region.

Today will echo yesterday weather-wise, with high temperatures near 8°C and partly cloudy skies. A ridge of high pressure centred over southern Manitoba will ensure that winds remain light, making for a fairly nice day overall. Skies will be mainly clear tonight as temperatures dip to a low near -4°C.

Thursday will be bring the push towards warmer temperatures as the upper-level ridge starts building into the province and a light southerly flow develops. Daytime highs will reach around 11°C with continuing sunny skies. With mainly clear skies, temperatures will dip down to about +2°C on Thursday night.

Temperatures will climb well above normal across much of the eastern Prairies on Friday.
Temperatures will climb well above normal across much of the eastern Prairies on Friday.

Southerly winds will ramp up on Friday to 30-40 km/h, ushering in a much warmer air mass that is being pulled northeastwards by a develop low pressure system moving across Saskatchewan. Skies will remain mainly sunny for much of the day as temperatures climb to a high near 16 or 17°C. Late in the day, cloud cover will begin working into the region from the west as a warm front moves eastwards across the province. With even warmer air on the way into the region, temperatures will remain quite mild on Friday night with lows dropping to only about 7°C.

Long Range

The weekend is looking quite nice with temperatures soaring into the upper teens on Saturday with lighter winds than Friday shifting from southerly to westerly through the day. Some weather models give a chance for some showers on Saturday, but the general consensus [at the moment] is that we’ll see mixed to cloudy skies, but remain dry. The warm weather continues on Sunday, but not quite to the same extent.

The GFS is forecasting that a complex low pressure system will begin impacting Manitoba on Sunday night.
The GFS is forecasting that a complex low pressure system will begin impacting Manitoba on Sunday night.

Heading into Sunday night, a couplet of low pressure systems, will move into the region, spreading precipitation northwards into southern Manitoba through the night. As it stands currently, it appears Winnipeg will only see a few mm of rain before things switch over to snow. It’s still very early for details, however. In general, it seems likely that many places in the Red River Valley could see up to 5 mm and then anywhere from 5 to 15 cm of snow. This system will likely also carry with it a brisk northeasterly wind, which will produce [potentially significantly] higher amounts near the western escarpment of the Red River Valley.

That said, there is some uncertainty as to whether or not this will actually materialize. We’ll be keeping a close eye on things as they develop and have more details heading into the weekend. Until then, enjoy the warmth!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 7°C while the seasonal overnight low is -4°C.

Sunshine Returns to Winnipeg

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Above-normal temperatures will continue throughout Winnipeg & the Red River Valley, but with a difference: sunshine.

A nice change in the forecast today: it’s fairly simple! The coming few days will continue to bring above-normal temperatures across southern Manitoba, with daytime highs near 12°C today sliding towards highs of 6 or 7°C for Tuesday & Wednesday. There will be plenty of sunshine today with skies then giving way to more mixed conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Above-normal temperatures continue across southern Manitoba today.

The weather also looks fairly dry over the next few days. There will be a slight chance of an isolated light rain shower or two on Tuesday afternoon as a weak disturbance moves through the southwestern portion of the province.

Long Range

The remainder of the week looks beautiful with an upper-level ridge building into the region, bringing another surge of well above-normal temperature to the region. It appears that daytime highs will climb back into the low teens with sunny to mixed skies and no rain expected.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -5°C.

Spring Arrives in the Red River Valley

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There will be no mistaking it this week: spring has arrived!

Temperatures will remain above normal through the coming week as a westerly flow aloft continues to spread mild Pacific air eastwards across the Prairies. With a rapidly eroding snow pack in the Red River Valley, it will also become easier and easier to reach warmer temperatures as the surface albedo decreases.1

It won’t all be sunshine, however. Today’s weather will be driven by a weak mid-level disturbance rolling through. It will bring fairly cloudy conditions through much of the day and a chance of rain or freezing rain in the morning.2 Winds will remain fairly light as temperatures climb to a high near 5 or 6°C. Clouds will remain fairly cloudy tonight as well with temperatures dropping to a low near -2°C.

The RDPS model shows a narrow band of showers over the Red River Valley this morning.

Tuesday will be a bit nicer, with some of the cloud breaking up to give a mix of sun and cloud to Winnipeg. Temperatures will climb to a high near 8 or 9°C with light northeasterly winds. Temperatures will drop to a low near 0°C under mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday night. There will be a slight chance of some rain overnight as a warm front pushes through, but that will depend on whether or not it ends up strong enough to support any showers.

Wednesday will bring some more cloud to the region, but temperatures will climb to a high near 10 or 11°C. Winds will be out of the south near 20 km/h. Skies will break up a bit overnight with temperatures dropping to a low near 2°C.

Long Range

Temperatures will continue to be mild with daytime highs near the 10°C mark throughout the remainder of the week and into the weekend. There will be a few chances for some showers throughout the second half of the week and into the weekend, but they seem to mainly be during nighttime. For the most part, it looks like beautiful weather ahead.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 3°C while the seasonal overnight low is -7°C.

  1. Albedo is a measurement of how much energy a surface reflects instead of absorbs. Snow has a very high albedo—up to 85-90%—which means a majority of energy from the sun is reflected back upwards. Bare ground only reflects around 10-15% of the incoming energy, absorbing the other 85%. This allows temperatures to climb much higher over bare ground compared to snow-covered ground. ↩
  2. What the precipitation falls as will depend precisely on the surface temperature at the time. ↩