Hot & Smokey Conditions Ahead

Hot weather will continue in Winnipeg, but shifting winds will fumigate southern Manitoba with wildfire smoke this weekend.

GOES-19 GeoFire RGB Imagery valid 0010Z Friday May 30, 2025
By Thursday evening, much of the Prairies, as well as portions of the northern United Sates, was smothered in wildfire smoke.

An upper ridge parked over the Canadian Prairies will bring hot weather to southern Manitoba over the next few days. Daytime highs will reach around 30 °C over the next few days with overnight lows in the low to mid-teens. There will be little cloud through the weekend…but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be sunny.

Instead, the region will battle with smoke throughout the weekend. Today will again bring a dreary plume of high-level smoke to the region, a repeat of that not-quite-sunny day the region saw yesterday. A weak low pressure system will cross the province tonight, shifting light westerly winds into an organized northwesterly breeze.

These northwest winds will usher in thick smoke plumes from wildfires over the central Prairies. By Saturday morning, it’s likely that smoke levels will increase to hazardous values across much of southern Manitoba. While the intensity of these plumes are difficult to forecast in advance, all signs point to a deterioration of air quality to the point where everybody should aim to reduce or eliminate time outdoors.

Winds will shift back to the south or southwest on Sunday as a new low pressure system develops over Saskatchewan. There is no guarantee that this will bring clean air back to the region; there is a chance that the region ends up having a diluted version of the same smoke plume lift back north through the region. There will likely be an improvement in the air quality, but it may not end up being back below hazardous levels.

Long Range Outlook

The forecast gets difficult heading into next week. That new low pressure system in Saskatchewan may move through as early as Sunday night, which would likely bring more northwest winds and a fresh blast of smoke from the central Prairies. Winds are forecast to gradually shift westerly in the first part of the week, which should help to clear out the air. A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible Monday, along with cooler temperatures, then it looks like the rest of the week will return to near-seasonal conditions.

For the foreseeable future, any organized northwesterly winds in the forecast will have to be eyed with caution; they will regularly run the risk of bringing thick plumes of wildfire smoke into the region and produce dangerously poor air quality.

With the return to seasonal conditions next week, there will likely be a few chances for scattered showers or thunderstorms. Any moisture will be appreciated, but it doesn’t look like there will be any substantial amounts of rainfall to ease the parched conditions across the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

Sunny Skies As Temperatures Climb Higher

There will be plenty of sunshine in Winnipeg this week as temperatures climb into the low 30s by week’s end. Unfortunately, this will worsen fire conditions across the region.

GOES-E GeoFire RGB Satellite Imagery valid 00:20Z Tuesday May 26, 2025
Huge plumes of wildfire smoke were visible Monday evening, smothering much of the northern Prairies and parts of southern Manitoba.

A rebounding upper ridge will bring sunny skies and warmer weather to the eastern Prairies through the rest of the week. Unfortunately, this means that there won’t be any notable chance for any significant amounts of rain. This will mean, broadly, that fire conditions will likely worsen through the week as relative humidities remain low.

Daytime highs will climb from the upper 20s into the low 30s through the rest of the week with afternoon relative humidies dropping into the 20–30% range. With a much warmer air mass moving into the region, that chill that we’ve seen a lot of nights will dissipate. Overnight lows will warm into the mid- to upper teens through the week.

Winds be light the next several days, gradually shifting from the south-southwest to westerly over the next few days. This should, fortunately, keep much of the smoke out of the Red River Valley and Winnipeg areas in the days ahead.

A few scattered showers or thundershowers may be possible in the days ahead, but they’ll likely develop south of Winnipeg if they occur and will be limited in intensity and scope.

Long Range Outlook

The hot weather will continue into the weekend with no rain in sight. Winds may shift northwesterly on Saturday, which could bring smoke from the wildfires over the central Prairies into the region.

Some relief from the dry conditions looks to be possible next week. The upper ridge begins to break down and several disturbances are forecast to track through the region through the week. Each one looks to bring a chance of widespread showers and/or thunderstorms to the region, which could supply several rounds of much-needed moisture.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

Scorching Heat to Give Way to Unsettled and Much Cooler Weather

The scorching heat and dangerous fire conditions will persist in Winnipeg and the Red River Valley for another day before the heat shifts east and showers and thunderstorms move into the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday May 13, 2025
Tuesday will bring another day of scorching heat and dangerous fire conditions in southern Manitoba.

Winnipeg will be off to a hot start today with temperatures in the low 20s that quickly climb to 30 °C by lunch. Southerly winds will pick back up to 40 gusting 60 km/h as temperatures continue to climb to a high in the mid-30s. Relative humidity will again drop below 20% today, which coupled with the heat and moderate winds will pose another risky fire weather day for the region. There will be a slight chance of an isolated evening shower or thunderstorm, but nothing substantial is expected for the region. Temperatures will head to a low in the mid-teens tonight with winds shifting to the north and easing.

On Wednesday, an upper low will shift from Idaho into southern Saskatchewan. As it pushes into the region, it will support a broad area of showers and thunderstorms that move from southeast Saskatchewan into western Manitoba and across the Interlake region. This broad area of cloud and rain showers will intensify the temperature change across a warm front draped southwest-northeast across southern Manitoba. Over a short distance, temperatures will change from around 30 °C on the warm side of the front to the upper teens on the cold side of the front. Right now, Winnipeg is forecast to sit barely on the cold side of the front with a high in the mid-20s, but small changes in the position of that front may change the daytime high by 5 °C or more.

Showers and thunderstorms will blossom across Manitoba on Wednesday night, but much of the activity looks to move through west and north of the Red River Valley. Temperatures in Winnipeg should dip down into the mid-teens on Wednesday night with cloud cover beginning to move into the area.

On Thursday, the unsettled weather will shift east into the Red River Valley as a pair of shortwaves lift north out of the Dakotas towards southern Manitoba. Temperatures will peak in the low 20s as more cloud and scattered showers and/or thunderstorms push through the region. with moderate northwest winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h developing through the day.

On Thursday night, unsettled showery conditions will likely transition to periods of rain as temperatures continue to cool and a much broader, more organized low pressure system develops. Temperatures will dip down into the mid-single digits overnight with moderate northwesterlies continuing.

Long Range Outlook

Heading into Friday, periods of rain will continue through the day as more cold air pushes into the region. Temperatures will hold steady or even fall through the day, potentially dropping as low as +1 or +2 °C. Heading into Friday night, temperatures may drop to freezing, and precipitation over the region could turn into a wintery mix of rain and/or snow with a risk of freezing rain. Those northwest winds will continue through the night.

Heading into the weekend, the precipitation looks to gradually taper off on Saturday with a high in the low single digits and easing winds. Temperatures may dip below freezing on Saturday night. Cloudy skies will likely stick around into Sunday with a warmer high in the 5 to 10 °C range.

Temperatures will slowly trend towards seasonal values this week, but another disturbance mid-week may bring more rain to the region and keep temperatures seasonably cool through the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 19 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 5 °C.

Summer Heat Arrives in Southern Manitoba

Temperatures in Winnipeg will soar this weekend as a strong upper ridge draws summer heat north into the province.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Sunday May 4, 2025
This weekend will bring the warmest weather so far this year to southern Manitoba.

Winnipeg has had a couple mild days this spring, but none that will compare to the heat that builds into the region this weekend. With a cooler Thursday behind us, yesterday’s northerlies will be replaced with light westerlies as milder Pacific air begins to push east. Today will trend cooler with a high in the low teens as the region transitions out of the colder air that moved into the region. While the day will start with cloud in the region, it should break up and move out for the afternoon.

Temperatures will dip into the 5–10 °C range tonight under clear skies as light winds shift southerly.

Heading into the weekend, the early-season heat is on with mainly sunny skies through the weekend. Saturday will bring daytime highs into the mid-20s while Sunday will likely be warmer with highs in the mid- to upper-20s . Winds will shift westerly through Saturday but should remain light. On Sunday, the winds will strengthen from the south to as high as 40 gusting 60 km/h. Those winds will ease into the 20 to 30 km/h range on Sunday night. Overnight lows in both nights should sit in the 10 to 15 °C range.

Long Range Outlook

The warm weather will stick around for Monday, then ease to seasonal values for a couple days before more heat builds back into the region. No significant precipitation is in the forecast.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 16 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +2 °C.