Hot And Smoky in Winnipeg

Winnipeg will see more smoky weather as an upper ridge sends temperatures soaring.

Winnipeg will see several days ahead with highs climbing above 30 °C as a potent upper ridge pushes eastwards across the Prairies. With the upper ridge will come broad subsidence and mainly sunny skies over the next few days.

Unfortunately, Winnipeg will continue to see periods of smoke as well. Conditions will likely be worst today, improve for tomorrow, then degrade a bit again on Wednesday.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday August 3, 2021
Winnipeg will see very warm temperatures on Tuesday with highs in the 30s.

Overnight lows will be seasonably warm, though it will be a very warm night on Tuesday night when the warmest air is over the region.

It will stay dry over the next few days, but a few showers or thunderstorms may be possible later Wednesday. A low pressure system will be dropping southwards into the region and may trigger more scattered thunderstorms.

Long Range Outlook

Winnipeg will see a return to seasonal temperatures in the second half of the week with variable cloudiness. There might be a small chance of some showers, but no notable rainfall is likely.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

More Warm Weather With a Chance of Showers

Temperatures will stay warm in Winnipeg through the first half of the week and the city may even see a bit of rain.

Today will start off with mixed to cloudy skies as a band of showers makes its way across southern Manitoba. This band developed overnight and may bring some rain to Winnipeg; as of writing, the band hasn’t formed yet so its exact placement is unknown to me!). It will be a narrow band situated just north of an upper-level front draped across the province. There may even be a chance of a thunderstorm. Any rain should push off to the east by midday, leaving the city with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will climb to a high near 28 °C with northeasterly winds picking up into the 30–40 km/h range.

These winds will tap into some of the forest fire smoke from east of Lake Winnipeg, reducing air quality on Monday night into Tuesday. It shouldn’t be anywhere near as a bad as the last smoke event, but will be enough to be noticeable.

Temperatures will dip to a low near 14 °C tonight with clear skies and easing winds.

An approaching low pressure system will push temperatures higher on Tuesday with the high in Winnipeg in the low 30s. Skies should stay mainly clear for much of the day but some cloud will build into the region by late afternoon. The winds will stay light through the morning, then pick up out of the south into the 20–30 km/h range by the end of the afternoon.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday July 27, 2021
Hot weather will return to southern Manitoba on Tuesday.

Heading into the night, nocturnal thunderstorms will likely develop over western Manitoba and push eastwards. Winnipeg will see a chance for some of that activity overnight into early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will head to a low near 19 °C with southeasterly winds near 30 km/h.

Skies will gradually clear out on Wednesday with northwest winds near 30 gusting 50 km/h and a high near 29 °C. The winds will ease on Wednesday night with a low near 17 °C.

Long Range Outlook

Warm weather will continue for the rest of the week with another chance for some showers or thunderstorms on Friday. After that, temperatures will return to seasonal values with variable cloudiness through the weekend into next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

The Heat Builds In

Winnipeg will see hot days ahead as an an upper ridge intensifies over the Prairies.

Winnipeg will see daytime highs climb to the mid-30s over the coming days as warmer air settles over the region. This warmth will be sustained by an amplifying upper ridge over the Prairies that will also keep conditions mainly sunny through the Red River Valley. Overnight lows will sit near 20 °C over the next couple days, then dip into the mid-teens on Sunday night as a cold front slumps into the region.

RDPS 500mb Height and Wind Speed Forecast valid 18Z Sunday July 18, 2021
An upper ridge will continue to amplify of the Prairies this weekend, extending northwards from the subtropical high over the western United States.

Winds will be breezy out of the south the next few days, picking up into the 20–30 km/h range during the day and easing at night. While conditions will be generally dry, an isolated pop-up shower or two can’t be ruled out over the coming days. The most organized chance for rain will be Sunday night when a cold front moves into the region.

Hazy conditions will persist over the coming days, with occasional periods of local smoke possible (the former being when smoke is mainly aloft with low concentrations near the ground, while the latter is when visibilities become reduced and the odour is noticeable).

The hot temperatures, relatively low dew points, and breezy winds will exacerbate the already poor fire conditions. Note that both the City of Winnipeg and the Province of Manitoba have fire bans in effect.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will cool slightly for Monday behind the cold front, then temperatures will rebound back towards the 30s on Tuesday. Models are starting to have a little more disagreement on how next week will progress. While all models had a significant heat wave for Winnipeg, newer model runs have become a bit more aggressive with the cooler air, keeping Winnipeg’s temperatures in the upper 20s or low 30s through much of next week. The hot weather will still be around, though, with highs climbing back into the mid- to upper-30s nearby to the west.

It’s hard to say at this point whether the new trend in the model will be right or not. If Winnipeg stays on the cooler side of this feature, then it will also mean the city will be more likely to see chances for rain or thunderstorms throughout the week. It’s impossible to discern at this point, though, so for now we’ll keep an eye on how this system evolves as the cold front slumps through the Prairies.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.

Hot Weather Continues

Hot and increasingly dry conditions will continue to be the weather story for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley.

It’s only going to get drier across the Red River Valley this week as intense summer heat bakes the region. Winnipeg will see highs hovering around 30 or 31 °C through the first half of the week with lows in the upper teens.

Winds will be breezy out of the south today with southerly winds of 30–40 km/h picking up this morning. A trough will push across the region today, and while it supported widespread thunderstorms overnight, it will be less active as it moves into the Red River Valley. Winnipeg will see a chance of showers or thunderstorms beginning around lunch and persisting until early evening. If any thunderstorms are able to develop, they will have a small chance of producing severe hazards with primary threats of damaging wind and/or hail.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday July 12, 2021
Winnipeg’s “cooling off” this week will be to highs near 30 °C. Hotter temperatures will return later this week.

Behind this trough, winds will shift to the northwest and then ease overnight. The northwesterly flow will usher in smokier conditions to the region once again. This time, the smoke will be coming from fires burning over northern Saskatchewan.

Tuesday and Wednesday will each bring light north-northeast winds and only a few clouds. The smoke, however, will likely stick around. While near-surface conditions will improve a bit, quite a bit of smoke will likely linger aloft over the region, casting that familiar slight orange hue under hazy skies.

Long Range Outlook

Another surge of hot air will move into the region for the second half of the week. Daytime highs will climb towards the mid-30s by the end of the week with overnight lows near 20 °C. While a couple shortwaves may meander over the region, an amplifying upper ridge should also keep the clouds at bay.

The forecasts show no notable precipitation for the Winnipeg area in the second half of the week or the weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 26 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 13 °C.