Tag: Benign Weather

Sunshine Returns as Temperatures Warm Up

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Winnipeg will finally see the sun for a couple days as the cooler temperatures break across the region and some summer warmth builds back in.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday May 29, 2024
Mild temperatures will spread into southern Manitoba on Wednesday with daytime highs in the low to mid-20s.

A brief note to start: the absence over the past couple weeks wasn’t planned. I caught COVID and it ended up being a rough ride that’s taken a while to recover from. I’m getting back into form now and hope to move back towards posting with more regularity again.

That said, I’m back with good news. After a large cool and wet couple weeks, the weather will finally turn a corner today. A large area of high pressure will descend from the Arctic into Manitoba today, while an upper ridge builds into the Prairies. This will settle the weather and bring sunny skies to the region as northerly winds ease. It will be seasonably cool today with a high in the 15 to 20 °C range and an overnight low near 5 °C.

Warmer weather will arrive tomorrow as the high pushes off to the east and a deep southerly flow develops. A broad area of southerly winds from 30 to 50 km/h will develop across southern Manitoba and southeast Saskatchewan, sending highs into the low to mid-20s. As the upper ridge moves over the region on Wednesday night, temperatures will stay mild with lows dipping to the mid-teens.

As the upper ridge moves east, a deep upper trough will follow in its wake, spreading unsettled conditions through Alberta and Saskatchewan. Widespread thunderstorm activity will develop in those areas on Tuesday and Wednesday as the system progresses.

By Thursday, the upper trough will be pushing into Manitoba. Down at the ground, this system will show as a low pressure system over northern Saskatchewan with an occluding frontal wave dropping southwards into the American Plains. The region will see cloudier conditions on Thursday as this disturbance moves through, and a band of [thunder]showers is likely to develop and move across the Red River Valley on Thursday afternoon. Temperatures should be near-seasonal with a high in the low 20s and an overnight low on Thursday night in the 10 to 15 °C range.

Long Range Outlook

Conditions will settle for the end of the week with highs in the low to mid-20s on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. The region will likely see a mix of sun and cloud through all three days, but there may be a chance of isolated showers on Friday and Sunday.

Next week looks to start with more of the same! Seasonal temperatures, variable cloudiness, and occasional chances for showers.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

Sunny and Warm This Weekend in Winnipeg

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A stagnant pattern over the region will bring sunny skies and warm weather to Winnipeg for the rest of the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Friday April 5, 2024
Mild temperatures will continue to wash over the southern Prairies this weekend.

A slow-moving upper ridge over the the province and a stalled surface low in Montana will result in little change to the weather in Winnipeg this weekend.

In the days ahead, the region will see sunny skies with daytime highs warming from the low teens into the mid-teens. Overnight lows will hover near or just above freezing.

Winds will strengthen out of the southeast into the 20 to 30 km/h range today, stay steady tonight, then increase to 40 gusting 60 km/h on Saturday. The winds will ease on Saturday night back into the 20 to 30 km/h range and shift easterly for Sunday.

Long Range Outlook

Monday brings the partial solar eclipse to the region, and unfortunately the region may struggle with cloud cover through the day. A low pressure system crossing the American Plains will spread thick cloud cover all the way through North Dakota and it’s likely that it will spill into southern Manitoba. At this point, it’s unlikely that skies will be overcast, but the region will likely have at least a mix of sun and cloud.

Skies will clear out Tuesday, leaving partly cloudy skies for much of the rest of the week. Temperatures will continue to be mild with highs in the 10 to 15 °C range and lows hovering near the freezing mark.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 7 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -5 °C.

Mild Week Ahead With Above-Freezing Highs in Winnipeg

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With daytime highs above freezing through the rest of the week, Winnipeg will see cloudier conditions develop as the snowpack across the region undergoes significant melt.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday March 13, 2024
Mild temperatures with daytime highs above freezing will be commonplace across the southern Prairies this week.

Warm Pacific air will sweep across the Prairies this week as upper ridging gradually dominates the upper air pattern over the coming days. As a result, Winnipeg will see daytime highs that climb above freezing throughout the work week.

It won’t all be sunshine though; a cold front dipped southwards overnight and another frontal boundary will slowly drop southwards through the province over the coming days. This will bring cloudier skies to the region with daytime highs in the +1 to +4°C range. Dew point values are expected to climb above freezing both today and tomorrow which will aid in the melting and erosion of the snow pack. Overnight lows will dip into the -5 to 0 °C range over the next several nights.

A weak disturbance will bring light snow to southwest Manitoba on Wednesday; while there may be a chance of flurries in Winnipeg, the system is likely to fall apart west of the Red River Valley.

As the melt continues through the week and the cloud lingers across the region, the chance of seeing fog patches or mist will increase. Northerly winds will pick up in the second half of the week which should help clear out any lingering moisture in the air.

Long Range Outlook

The next system of note will be a low pressure system dropping southeastwards through Manitoba on Friday. This system could bring a mix of rain and snow to the Red River Valley, though current indications are that it should pull enough warm air eastwards that most of the precipitation would be rain.

GDPS Precipitation Type and Rate Forecast valid 00Z Saturday March 16, 2024
A low pressure system moving through Manitoba on Friday will bring a mix of rain and snow to the province.

This system could bring rain amounts ranging from a trace to the 5–10 mm range across the Red River Valley. With a cold front swinging through on Friday night, it would leave behind cooler weather with a chance of flurries into the weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -2 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -12 °C.

Seasonal Temperatures on Friday Give Way to a Warm Weekend

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Winnipeg will end the work week with near-seasonal temperatures, but more warmth is on the way for the weekend.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday February 24, 2024
A low pressure system crossing the southern Arctic into Hudson Bay will drag another wave of mild air into southern Manitoba this weekend.

An Arctic high slumping through southern Manitoba will bring near-seasonal temperatures to the region with daytime highs comfortably in the -10 to -5 °C range. Skies will be sunny with light winds that begin to pick up out of the south in the evening.

A strong low pressure system will begin tracking eastwards through the southern Arctic today, and by tonight it will start dragging a warm front across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will dip to a low near -10 °C tonight, then climb into the -5 to 0 °C range by Saturday morning as the warm air pushes into the Red River Valley.

Saturday will bring partly cloudy skies to the region with highs jumping up into the mid-single digits. Breezy southerly winds will shift westerly through the day, hovering in the 20 to 30 km/h range. A weak cold front will slump through the region on Saturday evening. Temperatures will dip to a low in the -10 to -5 °C range overnight.

A ridge of high pressure will cross the region on Sunday, bringing light winds and a high near freezing. Skies will again be partly cloudy but otherwise there will be little weather to talk about to end the weekend.

On Sunday night, a potent Alberta Clipper is forecast to begin ejecting eastwards across the Prairies; it will bring much warmer air surging northwards into the Prairies ahead of it as it tracks towards Manitoba overnight. This warmer air pushing into the region will keep overnight lows mild in the -5 to 0 °C range with cloud building in as moderate southeast winds pick up.

Long Range Outlook

Monday’s weather in Winnipeg will be dependent on the exact track of the Alberta clipper. If it tracks more southerly, then the city will see cloudy skies and likely morning snow as the warm front slides through and evening snow as the system’s cold front slams through. In this case, a daytime high near 5 °C wouldn’t be unreasonable.

If, against the odds, the system tracks more northerly, then Winnipeg may escape the morning snow and see temperatures soar into the upper single digits as southwest winds mix mild Pacific air to the surface. Either way, a potent cold front will slam through in the evening and bring strong northwest winds and plummeting temperatures.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Monday February 26, 2024
A potent Alberta Clipper will cross the Prairies on Monday, bringing more mild weather to the south while bitterly cold temperatures push into the north.

A huge Arctic high will slump into the region behind the clipper, sending temperatures plummeting rapidly. Temperatures will likely drop into the -20 to -15 °C range on Monday night, barely recover on Tuesday, and then drop into the mid-minus 20s on Tuesday night.

This clipper will likely bring a swath of 10 to 20 cm of snow across the central Prairies, but along the Trans-Canada Highway corridor and areas south, there’s more uncertainty with amounts and whether the precipitation will be rain or snow.

The cold snap will be short lived after this system as the upper pattern continues to favour progressive systems. Wednesday will bring below-seasonal highs to the region for another day, then a warmup begins heading towards the weekend!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -6 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -17 °C.