Sunny Skies, Cooler Temperatures, Build Into The Red River Valley

After several days of cloudier conditions, Winnipeg and the Red River Valley will see the sun return for the second half of the week.

The low pressure system that brought a few showers to Winnipeg over the past couple days — although more notably a major winter storm to the southwestern Prairies — is finally making its way out of the region. The upper-level support will finish moving out of the province this morning with mostly cloudy skies giving way to afternoon clearing. Temperatures will climb to a high near 13°C this afternoon with winds picking up out of the southwest to around 30 km/h.

Temperatures will be quite cool tonight as a shot of Arctic air moves through the region. Under clear skies and diminishing winds, overnight lows will dip down to around the +1°C mark in Winnipeg, however that’s for most of the urban areas. At the edges of the city, as well as into the Red River Valley, overnight lows may dip down to the 0 to -2°C range. There will be a risk of frost throughout the region, including Winnipeg.

RDPS Forecast 2m Temperature valid 12Z Thursday October 5, 2017
The Red River Valley will see a risk of frost early Thursday morning as temperatures dip near or below the freezing mark.

Thursday will bring mainly sunny skies to Winnipeg with light winds as a ridge of high pressure slumps through the southern Prairies. Temperatures will be near seasonal with highs climbing to around 13°C again in Winnipeg and overnight lows dipping back down to around the +3°C mark.

Friday will also bring sunny skies to the region with a light southerly wind developing in response to a low pressure system building into the far northern Prairies. Daytime highs will climb up to around 16°C as slightly warmer air pushes northwards, and overnight lows will follow suit dropping to only around 6°C.

Long Range

Conditions look fairly dry for the next while, although a more significant pattern change will move in for early next week. Temperatures look to climb into the upper teens on Saturday with breezy southerly winds, with a cold front then passing through on Saturday evening. At this point, the passage of the front looks dry, and will be followed by a second cold front moving through the region on Sunday night.

GDPS Forecast 500mb Height Anomaly valid 12Z Monday October 9, 2017
A large upper-level trough (shown in blues and purples) will develop over the Prairies early next week, bringing below-seasonal temperatures to the Prairies.

That will leave the Prairies underneath a large upper-trough for Thanksgiving Monday. Temperatures will be below normal with highs just in the upper single digits under cloudy skies with a breezy northwesterly wind and a chance of showers. The road to recovery will be slow, with temperatures gradually rebounding towards seasonal through the remainder of the week.

The Sun Makes A Return

After a streak of cloudy and wet weather which brought the most significant multi-day rainfall totals of 2017 to Winnipeg, the sun is finally set to return. Winnipeg will enjoy several relatively sunny days ahead with temperatures rebounding back towards seasonal values.

After seeing 65.1 mm of rain in the past 10 days, Winnipeg is poised to enjoy a few days to finish drying out1 as fairly benign weather returns to the region. Today will be quite a pleasant day; skies will start off sunny this morning and become more mixed in the afternoon with temperatures climbing to an above-seasonal high near 18°C. Winds will be light until a weak cold front passes through this afternoon, after which they’ll switch to the northwest at around 20-30 km/h for a few hours before diminishing near sunset. Skies will remain partly cloudy to mixed overnight with temperatures dipping to a low near 7°C.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Wednesday September 27, 2017
Temperatures will climb into the upper teens this afternoon across southern Manitoba

Thursday’s main driver for the weather will be a large ridge of high pressure building southwards out of the Arctic. As it pushes towards the southern Manitoba, it will keep winds out of the north at 20-30 km/h with slightly cooler temperatures in place as highs climb to a seasonal 16°C. Skies will remain partly cloudy much of the day. Thursday night will be a cool one as the high pressure centre moves across Southern Manitoba. Temperatures will dip to a low near 2°C with patchy frost an outside chance, but it looks relatively likely (for now) that extensive fog development may occur through the night, which would likely keep lows above the freezing mark. That said, it’ll certainly be cool, so if you have temperature-sensitive plans, probably best to take care of them before Thursday night.

GDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Friday September 29, 2017
The GDPS suggests a patchy freeze will be possible on Friday morning

Friday will bring mainly sunny skies to Winnipeg & the Red River Valley, outside of any fog that may be in the region in the morning. As the high pressure system moves off to the southeast, it will bring southerly winds at around 10-20 km/h as temperatures climb to a high near 16°C again. Temperatures will dip to a low near 8°C on Friday night with winds increasing out of the south to 20-30 km/h.

Long Range

Warmer, but windy, weather will move into the Red River Valley on Saturday with daytime highs climbing towards the 20°C mark as an upper ridge pushes into the eastern Prairies. Conditions begin turning on Sunday as another significant low pressure system moves towards the region. During the day on Sunday will likely be mild, although cloudy, with breezy southeasterly winds. At some point, there will be a more organized chance for rain; likely on Sunday night into Monday morning, but it could easily shift by 12 hours between now and then.

The work week will start off with seasonal temperatures and some lingering unsettled weather until things clear up mid-week again.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 15°C while the seasonal overnight low is 4°C.

  1. And perhaps letting the grass grow long enough to need to be cut again…

More Scorching Summer Temperatures Ahead

Daytime highs will head back into the 30’s early this week as a low tracking across the northern Prairies spreads well above seasonal temperatures eastwards.

In the wake of a cold front that moved through yesterday evening, today will bring temperatures cooler than Sunday but still well above-seasonal. A weak ridge of high pressure will keep skies clear with winds out of the west at 20-30 km/h as temperatures climb to a high near 26°C. With dew points falling to just 1-2°C, it will also be bone dry out there. Expect a low near 16°C tonight.

A low pressure system tracking across the northern Prairies on Monday night will begin drawing a very warm air mass eastwards out of Alberta and across the Prairies. This warmer air will arrive in Winnipeg on Tuesday with a southwesterly winds of 20-30 km/h pushing temperatures up into the low 30’s. Skies will be cloud-free as well, making for a scorcher of a day. The winds will ease in the afternoon as a weak low pressure system tracks across the valley, and then pick up out of the northeast to around 15 km/h in the evening. Temperatures will dip to a low near 15°C under clear skies.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday September 12, 2017
Temperatures will climb into the low 30’s across southern Manitoba on Tuesday.

Lastly, Wednesday will bring another day with highs warmer than seasonal, but it may be the last for quite a while. Temperatures should climb to around 25°C with some increasing cloud late in the day. Overnight there will be a decent chance for showers or thunderstorms across much of southern Manitoba as temperatures head down to a low near 14°C.

Long Range

A fairly substantial pattern change will occur for the second half of the week as a deep trough develops over the Rocky Mountains and brings a south to south-westerly flow aloft to the region. This will result in numerous systems moving through in the second half of the week, each capable of bringing a round of rain and/or thunderstorms. Some areas of Manitoba may see the most rain they’ve seen all summer through the second half of this week, including Winnipeg.

GDPS 24hr. QPF Forecast valid 12Z Friday September 15, 2017
Models are producing rather significant amounts of rainfall across the Prairies on Thursday

So wet, unsettled, and cooler weather is on tap for the second half of the work week. At this point it looks like the chances for rain drop off on the weekend, but cloudy(ish) and cool conditions will continue through the weekend with highs in the mid-teens.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 19°C while the seasonal overnight low is 7C.

Get The Sunscreen Out: Summer’s Back

Here comes the shortest forecast we’ve written in a while: summer is making a big comeback in Winnipeg as the forecast — both short and long-range — holds practically nothing but sunshine and warm temperatures.

Winnipeg will see a trio of beautiful days ahead as two features keep skies clear and slowly warm things up. The first is an upper-level ridge over Manitoba and the second is a high pressure system in Ontario that continues to exert its influence over southern Manitoba. These two features combined together will keep things sunny, and as the surface high slowly moves off to the southeast, temperatures will climb back into summer-like values.

500mb Winds with Jet Stream Annotation valid 15Z Friday September 8, 2017
The jet stream lifts far to the north of Winnipeg, creating an upper-level ridge that is producing clear skies over the eastern Prairies.

So both today and Saturday will bring nothing but sunshine to Winnipeg & the Red River Valley with high temperatures of 23°C today and 26°C on Saturday. Winds will be out of the south both days, to around 20-30 km/h today and 30-40 km/h on Saturday. Expect lows near 9°C tonight and near 15°C on Saturday night.

We could see a few clouds on Sunday morning, but overall the day should be fairly sunny. The only fly in the ointment could be a thick layer of smoke spreading in from the west. Temperatures may reach as warm as 30°C, but if there ends up being a lot of smoke it could be a few degrees cooler than that. Winds will continue out of the south at around 30 km/h. A cold front will swing through on Sunday night, bringing some clouds and a chance of showers to the region, however no significant rain is expected with the passage of the front.

Long Range

Monday looks to bring mixed skies and lighter winds in the wake of the cold front with temperatures slightly cooler than Sunday. Things then clear out for Tuesday and temperatures continue to remain above-normal through mid-week. A disturbance developing over the Prairies on Wednesday into Thursday will then likely begin bringing more seasonal temperatures, increased cloud, and a chance of showers back to the Red River Valley for the end of the week.

The biggest question mark will be how much smoke ends up in the region, though. With westerly winds, a fair amount of the B.C. forest fire smoke may end up making its way here, and early indications are that there is the potential for it to be the most significant smoke event for Winnipeg so far this year. We’ll be keeping an eye on it!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 20°C while the seasonal overnight low is 7C.