Tag: Benign Weather

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast Valid 21Z Tuesday March 19, 2019

Spring Melt Continues This Week in Winnipeg

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Seasonably mild temperatures will continue this week in Winnipeg, continuing a slow and steady spring melt across the region.

A potent upper-level ridge building into the Prairies will send another push of warm air across the region. A weak disturbance will push a warm front through the region today, bringing Winnipeg plenty of cloud cover. That same front will bring the city a chance for some afternoon flurries. Temperatures will climb to a high near +1°C with winds out of the south near 20 km/h. Skies will stay mostly cloudy tonight with a low near -4°C and light winds.

Tuesday will bring mostly cloudy skies to the region with westerly winds climbing into the 20 to 30 km/h range. Winnipeg will see a high near +3°C. The cloud cover should breaking up in the evening as temperatures head to a low near -3°C. Those westerly winds will ease overnight.

On Wednesday, weather systems finally leave the region alone with just a weak surface ridge1 working into western Manitoba. This will give Winnipeg light westerly winds with temperatures climbing to a high near +3 or +4°C. The city will see mixed skies, which means it will be the first day of the next few to offer the potential for lots of sunshine. If the sun does make an appearance, it will likely result in a large range of temperatures across the city. The high of +3°C is for the weather station at the airport, which is in the middle of a snow-covered field. Areas of the city that have more buildings, or have much of the snow cleared and/or melted already will likely see temperatures climb higher, potentially up to +7 or +8°C.

Temperatures will head to a low near -2°C on Wednesday night with clearing skies.

Long Range Outlook

The rest of the week is looking great; the upper ridge will bring benign weather to the region! Winnipeg can expect a fair amount of sunshine, light southerly winds, and daytime highs in the +4 to 8°C range!

This also means that milder temperatures will spread south of the border. The region will be moving into the spring flood season over the next couple weeks. As it does, flood water will begin weakening ice cover on rivers and lakes. Remember to exercise caution around frozen waterways.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 0°C while the seasonal overnight low is -11°C.

  1. Not to be confused with the upper-level ridge moving into the region! ↩

Weather Calms Down With Near-Seasonal Temperatures

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After dodging much of yesterday’s storm, Winnipeg will see a relatively pleasant weekend with near-seasonal temperatures.

Winnipeg will settle back into a benign weather pattern in the wake of the major winter storm that clipped the southeastern corner of the province. Today will bring the most sunshine of the next few days, but temperatures will be the coolest. The city will see northwesterly winds near 30 km/h this morning, but they will diminish this afternoon as a ridge of high pressure arrives. Temperatures will reach a seasonably cool high near -5°C. The city should see mostly clear skies tonight with temperatures heading to a low near -16°C.

Saturday will bring increasing cloud to the region as a weak warm front pushes eastwards towards the Red River Valley. Temperatures will be a bit warmer with a high near -1°C with light southerly winds developing. There will be a slight chance of some snow flurries later in the day as the warm front pushes through. Mostly cloudy skies will continue Saturday night as the temperature dips to a low near -6°C.

Temperatures will cimb to near the freezing mark across much of southern Manitoba on Saturday.

Winnipeg will continue to see mostly cloudy skies on Sunday as more warm air slowly pushes eastwards into the Prairies. The city should see a high near +1°C with light winds. Sunday night is forecast to bring mixed skies and a low near -6°C.

Long Range Outlook

Long-range forecasts show significant confidence in a large upper-level ridge gradually building into the Prairies. This would bring a quiet week weather-wise with variable cloudiness and temperatures gradually warming. It looks likely that next week will result in a notable amount of melt as it progresses.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -1°C while the seasonal overnight low is -11°C.

A Windy Climb to Warmer Weather

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Winnipeg will see windy conditions develop later today as warmer temperatures push in from the west.

The prolonged stretch of below-seasonal temperatures in Winnipeg that began on February 3rd is finally coming to an end. A developing westerly flow aloft will spread milder Pacific air eastwards across the Prairies today. Unfortunately for Winnipeg, there will be a bit of a transition day before we shift into the warmer temperatures. Under a few clouds today, winds will remain light until later this afternoon. Southerly winds will increase to around 30 km/h by evening, persisting at 30 to 40 km/h through the night. These southerly winds will keep temperatures a bit cooler with a high near -7°C. Temperatures will remain fairly steady overnight, dipping to a low near -8°C with increasing cloudiness.

3km NAM Forecast 10m Wind valid 06Z Tuesday March 12, 2019
The Red River Valley will see moderate southerly wind on Monday night.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, a potent Colorado Low developing in the US will be the controlling force of the weather. While at one point it seemed the Red River Valley might see a major storm, forecasts continue to trend the system southeastwards. Now, it looks that southeastern Manitoba may see some snow, but that most of the province will escape it. Instead, the region will see plenty of low cloud and mild temperatures near the freezing mark.

The wind will diminish Tuesday and then remain calm until it begins picking up out of the north on Wednesday night.

We’ll be keeping an eye on the Colorado Low as it develops.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will cool to just a tad below seasonal values in the wake of the Colorado Low, but by the weekend temperatures are forecast to bounce right back to around the freezing mark. Combined with the increasingly strong sunshine, Winnipeg may just find itself entering the beginning of the spring melt!

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -13°C.

Seasonal Temperatures on the Horizon

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Winnipeg looks poised to break free of below-seasonal temperatures by the weekend. The city has seen seasonably cold temperatures entrenched over the region for much of February into the beginning of March.

Winnipeg will see fairly benign weather over the next few days as an Arctic high moves through the region. Be it cloudy periods today, mixed skies tomorrow, or increasing cloudiness on Friday, there will be cloud around through the remainder of the week.

Temperatures will be coldest today and tonight with highs and lows roughly 10°C below seasonal averages. The rest of the week will bring a gradual warming trend, reaching a high near -7°C on Friday. A few light flurries are possible over the next couple days, but forecasts show nothing of note.

Winds will be a bit breezy today out of the northwest at 20 to 30 km/h. The wind will then will diminish to calm as the Arctic high moves in tonight. Winds will remain calm or light out of the south for the remainder of the work week.

Long Range Outlook

The big shift in the weather will occur this weekend. A Colorado Low will push northeastwards through the American plains towards the Great Lakes. This system will bring some snow to the region, but the brunt of the storm will remain south of the border. The bigger impact of this storm will be how it shifts the large-scale pattern over North America.

As the Colorado Low pushes eastwards, it will finally dislodge the Polar Vortex from Hudson Bay. With the vortex gone, there will no longer be a persistent forcing of cold air southwards. This will allow seasonal temperatures to push into the region more frequently. The downside may be a more zonal pattern aloft. This pattern tends to result in more frequent disturbances moving through the region and chances for snow.

And while it’s still a long ways out, we have to mention that several models show the potential for a major winter storm next week. There’s no point in going into details, but we just want to note that some unpleasant winter weather may reappear for mid-March.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -4°C while the seasonal overnight low is -14°C.