It’d Be A Shame to Let the Puddles Dry Up

Don’t put your umbrella away yet; our wet start to September isn’t going to be going away any time soon…

I wish I had better news to share, especially for our farmers outside The Perimiter©, but more wet weather is in store as the cool and unsettled weather continues.  At least the mosquitoes won’t be much of a problem, right?

The first thing to note is the incoming surface ridge that will be moving across Southern Manitoba tonight and tomorrow.  Cool air combined with clear skies will drop our overnight lows down to 3-4°C in the city, with temperatures a degree or two colder outside the city.

Cool daytime highs trying to reach 20°C should persist through the weekend.  To begin next week, it appears as if another low pressure system will track through North Dakota, with a warm front draped across the state close to the international border.  I have decided to go with the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System) solution, as individual models have been varying their solutions a bit for this system:

This shows the probability of 10mm of precipitation or more through 00Z Sept 6 to 00Z Sept 8.  Current indications are that areas close to the border should expect rain through this period, with NAEFS indicating a 70-80% chance of >10mm of rain.  The probability decreases as you head north, but even for Winnipeg the probability of more than 10mm is still > 50%.  This solution will likely change, however I’m fairly confident in saying that people in the RRV can expect a gloomy, rainy Monday into Tuesday.

Things settle down for a couple days with highs near 20°C until the next system rolls through the Dakotas at the end of the week.

This system is currently forecast to be a bit further south, but the NAEFS still plasters the RRV with a 50-70% chance of > 5mm of precipitation from 00Z Sept 9 to 00Z Sept 11.

All in all, likely a rainy start to our week and rainy end to our week after a rainy middle of this week.  And to make things “worse,” there doesn’t look like there will be too much of a chance of thunder making an appearance, except for (most likely) the US side of the border with the first system.

I’ll go get my rubber boots and put them by the door.