Unsettled Weather Ahead

A warm but unsettled few days are ahead as mild Pacific air surges across Southern Manitoba.

850mb Temperatures valid this evening

850mb temperatures from the NAM valid for early this evening.

Snow will taper off early this morning with a lingering chance of a stray flurry or two sticking around through much of the day across the northern half of the Red River Valley. Southerly winds will pick up through the day to 30-40*km/h as the warm front alluded to in Wednesday’s post pushes into the Valley. Temperatures will warm up quickly as the front passes with temperatures climbing to around -4 or -3°C, a few degrees warmer than the seasonal normal of about -6°C. Temperatures will remain steady through the night as that south wind continues to keep us in the warm air.

Another disturbance will pass through the northern Red River Valley tonight, however there’s some uncertainty to the areas that precipitation will fall. It currently looks like most, or all, of the precipitation will fall north of Winnipeg, focused in the Interlake region. There’s a slight chance that it will fall a bit further south, clipping Winnipeg and other areas in the northern half of the Red River Valley. If any areas in the Red River Valley are affected by this disturbance, they’ll almost certainly have to deal with freezing rain as there will a massive AFL (Above Freezing Level) just off the surface where temperatures will be nearly +10. With precipitation falling through it, the AFL will cool to 2-3°C, which is still more than warm enough to melt any snow that will be falling into it. Potentail freezing rain accumulations will be light but not insignificant at 1-2mm. Just to reiterate, the risk area for freezing rain will likely be confined to the northern half of the Red River Vally.

In addition to the weather from this disturbance, there will be the potential for freezing drizzle through the entire RRV as warm, moist air overruns our cold snowpack.

Saturday and Sunday will be cloudy days with beautifully warm temperatures for this time of the year. Daytime highs will sit right around 0°C. There will be a slight chance of non-accumulating flurries Saturday night into Sunday, otherwise no significant weather is expected. As winds lighten up, there will be the potential for fog patches through the valley in the overnight hours.

A storm system looks to move into the area on Monday morning, bringing rain or snow in the morning and snow in the afternoon. There’s still uncertainty in the track of the system and how much of the precipitation will impact the Red River Valley, so we’ll be sure to provide an update or two in the comments below through the weekend. The one thing that is certain is that this system will mark a return to more seasonal temperatures as cooler air sweeps over Southern Manitoba in it’s wake.