Seasonal Weather Continues Through Weekend

Our streak of surprisingly seasonal weather will continue through the weekend as another push of Pacific air sweeps across the Southern Prairies.

850mb Temperatures Saturday Morning

850mb temperatures valid on Saturday morning. A warm front will be pushing across Southern Manitoba ushering in mild Pacific air and a very slight chance of a dusting of snow.
Friday

Mainly sunny.
-7°C / -14°C

We’ll see a mainly sunny day today as spend a final day under the effects of a weak ridge. Temperatures will climb to around –7°C, although depending where you are in Winnipeg, temperatures could climb locally to –5 or –4°C as more and more concrete is exposed.[1] Temperatures will dip down tonight to around –15°C before clouds begin to move in ahead of the approaching warm front.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday

Mainly cloudy.
-3°C / -7°C
Saturday

Mainly cloudy.
-2°C / -7°C

Milder Pacific air will push into the Red River Valley this weekend warming temperatures up close to the 0°C mark. Both Saturday and Sunday will be mainly cloudy and other than a very slight chance on Saturday morning of a light dusting, no snow is expected. Temperatures will only drop to around –7 or –8°C both Saturday and Sunday night.

Next Week

Models seem to indicate a system diving southwards into North Dakota but differ on what to expect from it. Current indications are that no significant snowfall will be seen over Southern Manitoba, although the GEM-GLB is painting a swath of 20+cm through our region. We’ll keep a close eye on it as the weekend progresses. Even with the passage of this system, temperatures aren’t expected to drop more than a few degrees and we should continue to see daytime highs warmer than –10°C through the week.


  1. Concrete has a lower albedo than snow-covered ground. Albedo is a measure of reflectivity of a surface; because concrete’s albedo is lower, it reflects less sunlight and warms up more. This effect is very noticeable at this time of year over forested areas where temperatures can climb as much as 10°C higher than open, snow-covered areas adjacent to them.  ↩

Pleasant Weather Continues

The beautiful weather we’ve been having this week will continue in a slightly cooler fashion through the rest of the week as the benign weather pattern holds on.

500mb Winds valid 18Z Thursday

500mb heights and wind speeds valid at 18Z on Thursday. A slack flow will continue over Southern Manitoba through the rest of the week.
Wednesday

Mainly cloudy.
-3°C / -11°C

Today will be the least pleasant day of the bunch as a passing “cool” front moves through the Red River Valley. Winds will pick up this morning to 30km/h out of the north as we climb to a high of around –3°C. With mainly cloudy skies expected through the day today, it will feel a little cool out there. No snow is expected, but one certainly can’t rule out a few flakes, especially near the western escarpment of the RRV and over SW Manitoba. The clouds will begin to break up overnight as we drop to around –11°C.

Thursday and Friday

Thursday

Mix of sun and cloud.
-6°C / -15°C
Friday

Mainly sunny.
-6°C / -16°C

Thursday will see a mixed sky as a weak ridge of high pressure sits across Southern Manitoba. As we move into Friday this ridge will be able to slowly erode most of the cloud over the Red River Valley, although SW Manitoba will likely remain relatively cloudy over this same time. Other than Friday being sunnier, Thursday & Friday look to be near carbon-copies of each other with daytime highs near –6°C and overnight lows dipping to around –15°C. Winds should remain fairly light to the end of the work week.

It’s worth mentioning that with the sun beginning to get stronger, even at temperatures around –5°C the sun will be able to work at melting the snow. With a weak ridge over us and light winds, it’s fairly likely that some fog patches will develop through the Red River Valley during the nights. At this time, it doesn’t seem like they should be too extensive, but it’s certainly possible that they could be quite dense. Over the past few nights, fog has formed just south of the U.S. border and reduced visibilities to as low as 200–300m. Any fog that does form should burn off fairly quickly by mid-morning.

Beautiful Weekend Ahead

It’ll be a great weekend to get out and enjoy outdoor activities as we see little in the way of weather and seasonal temperatures.

Friday

Mix of sun and cloud.
-7°C / -14°C
Saturday

Mainly sunny.
-7°C / -14°C
Sunday

Becoming cloudy, chance of patchy flurries.
-6°C / -10°C

There isn’t much to say about the next few days; today and tomorrow will be pleasant with clouds slowly clearing out and daytime highs near –7°C. Overnight lows will sit around –14°C for the next couple nights. There will be increasing cloudiness as a warm front approaches on Sunday bringing with it a slight chance of some patchy flurries and a high temperature around –6°C. The overnight low on Sunday will only be –10°C as warmer air moves in.

Next week looks to be off to a very pleasant start with above-normal daytime highs of about –5°C and no significant weather expected through the first half of the week. Long-range models hint that we may cool down back to seasonal or just below seasonal temperatures for the second half of the week.

Have a great weekend and get out there and enjoy the nice weather!

A Return to Seasonal Weather

A low pressure system tracking across Northern Manitoba will sweep warmer air across the Eastern Prairies bringing seasonal weather back to the region.

850mb temperatures this afternoon

Forecast 850mb temperatures for this afternoon. The sharp boundary of red/blue is the 0°C line, with blue shading on the cold side of it and red shading on the warm side of it.

The sun will remain elusive today as another shot of cloud cover will continue the seemingly endless cloudy streak that Winnipeg has been dealing with over the past several weeks. Offering some consolation, however, will be moderating temperatures. We’ve remained below our normal temperatures for this time of year1 on the back side of the Colorado Low that dumped 20-50cm of snow across Southern Manitoba, but we’ll see a warm-up today as very mild air at 850mb moves across the Red River Valley. As a low pressure system tracks across Northern Manitoba, it will draw warm air northwards from the United States, raising our 850mb temperatures to nearly 0°C. The extensive cloud cover and snow pack will limit our daytime highs, but they should climb up to right around -1 or 0°C. Areas with little to no snow over the southeast portions of the province may even be able to eke out a +1 or +2°C high today.

The rest of the week looks fairly uneventful, with daytime highs dropping back towards -3°C to -5°C as slightly cooler air pushes southwards behind the Northern Manitoba low. Overnight lows should also sit around -10°C for the next few nights. The major upside to the latter half of this week is that the sun should finally make an appearance. Clouds look like they’ll clear out tonight and we should see a bunch more sun than we’ve gotten used seeing to lately.


  1. The normal daytime high for this time of year is around -1°C, while the normal overnight low is around -9°C.